https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/t_16x9/t_w2208/mlb/ywgfkwzdcxw3e9mukyz9.jpg World Series could turn into a track meet. Can either team slow the other down? 世界大赛可能演变成一场田径竞速赛。两支球队之中，有哪一队能设法压制对手的跑动攻 势？ 12:00 PM GMT+8 Thomas Harrigan https://shorturl.at/25BYT Rays execute double steal in the 7th https://www.mlb.com/rays/video/rays-execute-double-steal-in-the-7th The Brewers and Rays have spent all season running wild. With a World Series title on the line, neither figures to slow down now. 酿酒人（Brewers）与光芒（Rays）整个球季都不断展现积极的跑垒风格。如今世界大赛 冠军就在眼前，两队都没有理由在这个时候放慢脚步。 Speed could be one of the defining factors of this year’s Fall Classic. The Brewers are MLB’s fastest team, ranking first(*1) in both average Sprint Speed and total runs clocked at the elite threshold of 30 ft/sec or faster (aka a “ bolt”)(*2) in the regular season. The Rays aren’t as fast on average, but they recorded the second-most bolts behind Milwaukee. 速度可能成为今年世界大赛（Fall Classic）的关键因素之一。酿酒人是大联盟速度最快 的球队，在例行赛的平均冲刺速度（Sprint Speed），以及达到每秒 30 英尺或更快顶尖 速度的跑垒次数上，都排名全大联盟第一。这种顶尖速度也被称为「闪电冲刺」（bolt） 。光芒的平均速度虽然不如酿酒人，但在达到这项顶尖速度标准的跑垒次数上，仍高居全 大联盟第二，仅次於密尔瓦基。 That speed has translated into plenty of stolen bases for both clubs. The Rays tied for second in the Majors with 164 steals during the regular season, while the Brewers ranked fifth with 162. 这样的速度优势，也转化成两队大量的盗垒成功。光芒在例行赛期间以 164 次盗垒成功 ，并列大联盟第二；酿酒人则以 162 次排名第五。 They've continued to run aggressively in October, too. Tampa Bay has stolen 11 bases without being caught over its nine playoff games. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has 10 steals on 12 attempts in eight games. 进入 10 月季後赛後，两队依然维持积极的跑垒策略。坦帕湾在 9 场季後赛中成功盗垒 11 次，而且从未遭到抓到出局。另一方面，密尔瓦基在 8 场比赛中尝试盗垒 12 次，成 功 10 次。 With the Fall Classic set to get underway on Friday, here’s a look at the historical context of this matchup, the baserunners to watch and which club is better equipped to slow down the opposing running game. 随着世界大赛预定於周五正式开打，以下将从历史纪录、值得关注的跑垒球员，以及两队 之中哪一队更有能力压制对手的跑垒攻势等角度，分析这场对决。 A rare World Series matchup 罕见的世界大赛组合 Few World Series teams in recent memory have run as much as these two. In fact, only one pennant winner in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) has produced more regular season stolen bases than these Rays and Brewers did. 近年来，很少有参加世界大赛的球队，像光芒与酿酒人这样频繁地发动盗垒。事实上，自 外卡制度时代（1995 年起）以来，只有一支赢得联盟冠军的球队，在例行赛的盗垒成功次 数比今年的光芒与酿酒人更多。 Most stolen bases by a pennant winner, Wild Card Era 1. 2023 D-backs: 166 2. 2026 Rays: 164 3. 2026 Brewers: 162 4. 2001 Yankees: 161 5-T. 2014 Royals: 153 5-T. 1998 Yankees: 153 外卡制度时代以来，赢得联盟冠军球队的例行赛盗垒成功次数排名 1. 2023 年响尾蛇（D-backs）：166 次 2. 2026 年光芒（Rays）：164 次 3. 2026 年酿酒人（Brewers）：162 次 4. 2001 年洋基（Yankees）：161 次 5. 并列：2014 年皇家（Royals）：153 次 5. 并列：1998 年洋基（Yankees）：153 次 A Fall Classic pairing between two prolific base-stealing teams such as these is rarer still. This is just the fourth time in the Divisional Era (since 1969) that two of the top five teams in stolen bases have played in that year's World Series. 像这样由两支擅长盗垒的球队在世界大赛交手，更是难得一见。自分区赛制时代（1969 年 起）以来，这只是第四次有两支例行赛盗垒次数排名前五的球队，在同一年世界大赛中正 面交锋。 It hasn’t happened since 2008, when a Rays team that led the Majors in steals (142) squared off with the Phillies, who ranked fourth (136). Although that Fall Classic went only five games, the two teams combined for 14 steals -- the most in a World Series this century. 上一次出现这种情况是在 2008 年。当时，例行赛以 142 次盗垒成功高居大联盟第一的光 芒，对上以 136 次排名第四的费城人。尽管那年的世界大赛只打了五场，两队合计仍完成 14 次盗垒，是本世纪世界大赛中最多的纪录。 It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers and Rays challenge that mark in 2026. 因此，若酿酒人与光芒在 2026 年世界大赛挑战这项纪录，也不会令人感到意外。 Chandler Simpson swipes his 43rd and 44th bases https://www.mlb.com/rays/video/chandler-simpson-swipes-his-43rd-and-44th-base Baserunners to watch 值得关注的跑垒球员 The Rays’ running attack revolves around Chandler Simpson, whose extreme offensive profile makes him unlike almost any other player in the sport today. Simpson has yet to homer in his career and rarely walks, but he batted .306 while leading MLB in infield hits (42) and the American League in steals (46) in 2026. He’s added three more steals in the playoffs. 光芒的跑垒攻势主要围绕着 Chandler Simpson 展开。他独特的进攻型态，让他成为当今 棒球界极少见的球员。Simpson 职业生涯至今尚未击出全垒打，而且很少选到四坏球保送 ；然而，他在 2026 年例行赛打击率高达 .306，并以 42 支内野安打领先大联盟，同时以 46 次盗垒成功拿下美国联盟盗垒王。进入季後赛後，他又增加了 3 次盗垒成功。 Taylor Walls (21) and Cedric Mullins (21) also reached the 20-steal plateau for the Rays in 2026, while Richie Palacios and Jonny DeLuca stole 17 bags apiece. Victor Mesa Jr. chipped in nine steals in 79 games for the Rays during the regular season. Those five have combined for eight steals this October. Taylor Walls（21 次）与 Cedric Mullins（21 次）在 2026 年也都为光芒完成至少 20 次盗垒。Richie Palacios 和 Jonny DeLuca 则各有 17 次盗垒成功。Victor Mesa Jr. 在例行赛为光芒出赛 79 场，贡献 9 次盗垒成功。上述五名球员在今年 10 月的季後赛中 ，合计已完成 8 次盗垒。 The Brewers have no single speed threat like Simpson, but there’s more balance on Milwaukee’s side. While Tampa Bay’s lineup includes a number of plodders who rarely run, such as Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz, seven Brewers stole at least 11 bases this season. David Hamilton led the way with 30 stolen bases over 121 games, and he has gone 3-for-3 in steals this October despite starting only three of Milwaukee’s eight games. 酿酒人阵中没有像 Simpson 这样特别突出的单一速度威胁，但密尔瓦基的跑垒火力分布得 更加平均。坦帕湾的打线中，有几名跑垒速度较慢、很少尝试盗垒的球员，例如 Junior Caminero 和 Yandy Díaz；相较之下，酿酒人本季共有七名球员至少完成 11 次盗垒。 David Hamilton 是其中的领先者，他在 121 场比赛中完成 30 次盗垒。今年 10 月季後 赛期间，尽管他只先发出赛酿酒人 8 场比赛中的 3 场，仍把握机会完成 3 次盗垒，成 功率为 100％。 Jackson Chourio hasn’t had many opportunities to run while reaching base at a .211 clip in these playoffs, but his base-stealing bona fides are well established on the heels of three straight seasons with 20-plus stolen bases. Keep an eye on rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt, too. He stole 19 bases over 74 games after making his MLB debut in June. Jackson Chourio 在今年季後赛的上垒率只有 .211，因此可供他发动盗垒的机会不多。不 过，他的盗垒实力早已获得充分证明，过去三个球季都至少完成 20 次盗垒。此外，也别 忽略菜鸟游击手 Cooper Pratt。他在 6 月完成大联盟初登场後，出赛 74 场便成功盗垒 19 次，同样是酿酒人值得关注的速度战力。 Controlling the running game 压制对手的跑垒攻势 With speed on both sides, the question becomes which team can keep it in check, and the Brewers did a much better job of that in 2026. Milwaukee allowed the second-fewest steals (71) in the Majors during the regular season, while Tampa Bay yielded the sixth most (131). 两队都拥有出色的速度战力，因此，接下来的关键就在於哪一队更能有效压制对手的跑垒 攻势。2026 年球季，酿酒人在这方面的表现明显更胜一筹。密尔瓦基在例行赛仅被对手成 功盗垒 71 次，是全大联盟第二少；坦帕湾则被对手成功盗垒 131 次，排名全大联盟第六 多。 At first glance, the Brewers seem to hold a huge advantage on the catching front. William Contreras registered a caught-stealing rate of 34% in 2026, compared to just 15.9% for Liam Hicks. But catchers are only partially responsible for preventing steals, and Statcast's catcher throwing metric actually rated the two quite similarly(*3) based on how they did with the opportunities they saw. 乍看之下，酿酒人在捕手方面似乎拥有相当大的优势。William Contreras 在 2026 年的 阻杀率达到 34％，而 Liam Hicks 的阻杀率则只有 15.9％。不过，防止对手盗垒并非只 取决於捕手的能力。根据 Statcast 的捕手传球评估指标，考量两人面对实际盗垒机会时 的表现後，他们的评价其实相当接近。 **两人Arm Strength 臂力也差不多 It was a different story on the mound. The Brewers’ pitching staff has been one of MLB’s best at preventing steals(*4) this year. Rays pitchers, meanwhile ,rank among the worst. 然而，若将焦点转向投手丘，情况就截然不同了。酿酒人的投手群本季在防止对手盗垒方 面，名列大联盟最佳之列；相较之下，光芒的投手群在这方面的表现却是全大联盟最差的 几支球队之一。 Net bases prevented by pitchers, 2026 regular season + postseason Expresses the skill of pitchers at preventing baserunners from advancing on the bases, via steal attempts or pickoffs/balks 1. Cubs: +31 2. Royals: +27 3. Yankees: +27 4. Mets: +25 5-T. Brewers: +21 5-T. Nationals: +21 -- 28. Rays: -28 29. Marlins: -36 30. Blue Jays: -48 2026 年例行赛与季後赛：投手成功阻止对手推进的垒包净值 这项数据用来衡量投手阻止跑者推进垒包的能力，包括防止盗垒，以及透过牵制出局或投 手犯规等方式，阻止跑者取得额外垒包。 1. 小熊（Cubs）：+31 2. 皇家（Royals）：+27 3. 洋基（Yankees）：+27 4. 大都会（Mets）：+25 5. 并列：酿酒人（Brewers）：+21 5. 并列：国民（Nationals）：+21 -- 28. 光芒（Rays）：-28 29. 马林鱼（Marlins）：-36 30. 蓝鸟（Blue Jays）：-48 That gap shows up in the Game 1 starting pitching matchup between Milwaukee’ s Jacob Misiorowski and Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen. The hard-throwing Miz has proven incredibly difficult to steal against, while Rasmussen is one of the easiest pitchers to run on(*5). Only three pitchers had more steals against them than Rasmussen's 23. 这项数据上的差距，也反映在世界大赛第一战的先发投手对决中：密尔瓦基由 Jacob Misiorowski 挂帅，坦帕湾则推出 Drew Rasmussen 先发。拥有强劲球速的 Misiorowski ，已证明自己是极难被对手盗垒的投手；相反地，Rasmussen 却是大联盟中最容易被跑者 发动盗垒的投手之一。本季只有三名投手被对手成功盗垒的次数比 Rasmussen 更多，而 Rasmussen 被成功盗垒的次数高达 23 次。 *官网首战先发，酿酒人已挂上 Misiorowski；光芒仍为 TBD。 光芒公布先发为 Nick Martinez Then again, Rasmussen has done well to keep the bases clean this October. He’ s allowed only 13 hits and three walks en route to a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings. 话虽如此，Rasmussen 在今年 10 月的季後赛中，仍成功限制对手上垒，表现相当出色。 他在 21 局投球中仅被击出 13 支安打、投出 3 次四坏球保送，防御率只有 1.29，有效 减少了对手发动跑垒攻势的机会。 If either pitching staff is going to prevent this World Series from turning into a track meet, that's the surest way to do it. After all, runners can’t steal if they don’t get on base. 如果两队之中有哪一方的投手群能避免这场世界大赛演变成一场速度竞赛，那麽最可靠的 方法，就是设法限制对手上垒。毕竟，跑者如果无法上垒，自然也就没有机会发动盗垒。 ∮Thomas Harrigan is a reporter for MLB.com.∮ ──────────────────── (*1) ranking first Leaderboard -- type: TEAM ~ Sprint Speed (ft / sec) https://shorturl.at/UVCrq (*2) (aka a “bolt”) Bolt Definition https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/bolt https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard (*3) actually rated the two quite similarly Catcher Throwing Leaderboard -- type: CATCHERS ~ Catcher's CS Above Averag Statcast 指标，旨在衡量捕手在面对跑垒员盗垒尝试时，将其成功阻杀的能力；该指标 会综合考虑捕手所面临的具体情境。 https://shorturl.at/U7Ik0 (*4) one of MLB’s best at preventing steals Pitcher Running Game Leaderboard -- type: TEAM ~ Net Bases Prevented 一项 Statcast 指标，旨在衡量投手阻止跑垒员在垒上推进（无论是透过盗垒尝试，还是 透过牵制或投手犯规）的能力。 https://shorturl.at/b5Xi9 (*5) one of the easiest pitchers to run on Pitcher Running Game Leaderboard -- type: PITCHERS ~ Net Bases Prevented ~Net Bases Prevented 前面排名 Imanaga, Shota (今永昇太) 9 Bibee, Tanner 9 McGreevy, Michael 9 Bradley, Taj 8 Skenes, Paul 8 Messick, Parker 8 Griffin, Foster 8 https://shorturl.at/4wHAH --

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