作者bluedrc (06 WS Champion!)
看板AlbertPujols
標題[外電] Pledge Class: Who could join the 500 Club?
時間Mon Jan 8 02:35:30 2007
http://tinyurl.com/y2xoru
By Derrick Goold
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
01/07/2007
PLEDGE CLASS
There are 20 members of the 500 home run club, and all 15 who have been
eligible for the Hall of Fame before this year's vote have been inducted. But
a flood of hitters is poised to swell the ranks of this elite club, including
an unprecedented four this season. A look at the next wave of sluggers and
one hammering Cardinal, ordered by current all-time rank in career homers:
Rank Player Age Total HR 162 avg* Yrs** Prediction***
23 Frank Thomas 38 487 38 <1 574
26 Jim Thome 35 472 41 <1 619
27 Manny Ramirez 34 470 42 <1 691
29 Alex Rodriguez 30 464 43 <1 772
31 Gary Sheffield 37 455 33 1+ 554
39 Mike Piazza 37 419 37 2+ 494
41 Carlos Delgado 34 407 39 2+ 583
67 Chipper Jones 34 357 33 4+ 516
72 Jim Edmonds 35 350 33 4 1/2 492
72 Jason Giambi 35 350 35 4+ 500
76 Jeff Kent 38 345 27 5 1/2+ 433
77 Andruw Jones 29 342 34 4 1/2+ 677
83 Vlad Guerrero 30 338 38 4+ 633
177 Albert Pujols 26 250 43 5 1/2+ 867
Sources: Baseball-Reference.com; The Bill James Handbook (2007 edition);
MLB.com.
* Average home runs hit in a 162-game season, as calculated by
Baseball-Reference.com.
打162場比賽的平均HR數
** Approximate number of seasons needed to reach 500 at that pace.
達到500HR還需要幾年
*** Predicted career total supplied by the current edition of The Bill James
Handbook, which assumes health but factors in an age-related decline in
production for its projections.
預測生涯HR數
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◆ From: 140.122.224.110
1F:推 Pujols5:867...好誇張的數字...我想知道是怎麼預測的 01/08 02:50
2F:推 molukino:預測他還能打幾年 然後乘上平均每年的全壘打數吧 01/08 03:34
3F:→ molukino:不過好像沒這麼簡單 = =a 因為生涯後期會開始衰退 01/08 03:35
4F:推 fenglingling:哇~~867~~期待15年後 01/08 03:57
5F:推 koturtle:我覺得預測基本上不太準,接下來這幾年Pujols要50+不難說 01/08 06:58
6F:推 TaiwanNeko:我希望869耶~讓一些日職迷好看XD 01/08 11:07
7F:推 ccahhu:他是想要破王貞治的紀錄嗎XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 01/08 15:59
8F:推 KoAnne:說不定會最早達到500轟 01/10 17:55