╔════╗ ║题目内容╠════════════════════════════════ ╚════╝ 原文题目：AIG's rescue - Size matters 　题目译文：拯救 AIG - 大小很重要 ┌───┬───────────────────────────────── │第一段│ └───┘ 　原　文： Even by the recent standards of Wall Street bailouts, that of American International Group is colossal. At its peak the insurance firm was the world’s largest with a market value of $239 billion. Its assets are bigger than those of either Lehman Brothers or Fannie Mae. Yet size alone does not explain the rescue. Nor do the images of customers queuing to cancel their policies as far away as Singapore. AIG posed a systemic risk because of its investment bank, tucked away behind the dull business of writing insurance contracts, which has lost it both a fortune—and now its independence. 译　文： 　纵使以近期华尔街援助对象的规模做为标准，美国国际集团 (AIG) 的规模也是很惊人 　的。这家保险公司在全盛时期是全世界最大的保险公司，市值高达 2390 亿美元。雷 　曼兄弟 (Lehman Brothers) 和房利美 (Fannie Mae) 的资产也没它多。但单凭规模这 　一点无法完全解释 AIG 何以获得援助，远在新加坡的客户排队将保单解约的画面也不 　是答案。（原因在於）AIG 造成了系统风险，而这风险源自该公司设在无趣保险业务 　背後的投资银行，那是一家之前让 AIG 亏了钱，现在又让它失去自主权的投资银行。 ┌───┬───────────────────────────────── │第二段│ └───┘ 　原　文： At one stage, this unit contributed over a quarter of profits. It has played the role of schmuck in one of finance' s most dangerous games by writing credit-default swaps (CDSs), a type of guarantee against default, with a giant notional exposure of $441 billion as of June. Of this, $58 billion is exposed to subprime securities which have already generated huge mark-to-market losses. For regulators, the real horror story may be the $307 billion of contracts written on instruments owned by banks in America and Europe and designed to guarantee the banks' asset quality, thereby helping their regulatory capital levels. 　译　文： 这个单位（投资银行）所贡献的盈利曾超过 AIG 盈利的四分之一。透过签发信用违 　约交换 (credit-default-swap, CDS) 这种违约保证保险，该单位在金融业这个最 　危险的游戏中扮演冤大头的角色。在 2008 年 6 月，其名目曝险部位达到 4410 亿 　美元，且其中有高达 580 亿美元的曝险对象是已带来庞大市值损失的次贷证券。而 　对监理单位而言，真正令人惊惧的，是该公司为了担保欧美地区银行资产品质以使 　各银行符合法定资本水准，而以各银行持有之投资工具为承保对象，总金额高达 　 3070 亿美元的 CDS 合约。 ┌───┬───────────────────────────────── │第三段│ └───┘ 原　文： How much pain taxpayers will ultimately bear is an open question. The official line is that AIG only suffered a liquidity crisis. As subprime losses mounted, it had to put up more collateral with its counterparties, in turn prompting credit-rating downgrades, which in turn triggered more margin calls. It is probable that operating cashflow was drying up too as big risk-sensitive commercial customers stopped doing business with the insurer. On September 16th the Federal Reserve extended a two-year, $85 billion credit facility at a penal rate. The government will get a 79.9% stake in the company in return. The idea is that this buys time for AIG to improve its liquidity in an orderly way. The bail-out's structure should also avoid a technical bankruptcy, which could force the unwinding of many of those CDS contracts. 译　文： 　纳税人最终将承受多少痛苦还没有确切的答案。官方的说法是，AIG 只是发生了流动 　性危机。当次贷损失增加时，该公司必须向交易对象提出更多担保品。此举会促成信 　用评等的调降，而信评调降则会进一步发动更多担保品追缴令。而该公司的营运现金 　流之所以会用尽，具风险敏感性的大型商务客户停止与该保险公司往来也是可能的因 　素。9 月 16 日，联准会以惩罚性利率借了 850 亿美元的两年期贷款给 AIG。政府 　将取得该公司 79.9% 的股权作为回报。联准会的想法是，此举可为 AIG 争取时间， 　使其得以有条不紊地改善流动性。而且此一纾困方案也应该可以避免法律上的破产： 　若 AIG 破产恐将使前述许多 CDS 遭强制解约。 ┌───┬───────────────────────────────── │第四段│ └───┘ 原　文： Yet might the government be taking over a company that is insolvent as well as illiquid? Extrapolating from AIG's own test, but adjusting fully for mark-to-market losses and stripping out goodwill and hybrid capital, even at the end of June AIG might have had about $24 billion less book equity than it needed to be safely capitalised. And some of its equity may be “trapped” within its insurance subsidiaries, whose capital positions are ringfenced by insurance regulators. That might leave the holding company that taxpayers have backed in a far worse state. On September 17th Eric Dinallo, New York’s insurance regulator, vouched for the solvency of AIG's insurance subsidiaries but was more circumspect on the company overall. 译　文： 　但政府会不会接收到一家周转不灵又无力偿债的公司呢？若以 AIG 自己做的财务测 　试结果进行推算，在调整其市值损失全额并扣除商誉及混合资产後，就算在六月底， 　AIG 的帐面资本也比其稳当营运所需资本短少了 240 亿美元。而且该公司的部分资 　产可能「套牢」在其保险子公司里，这些子公司的资产部位可是被保险监理机关牢牢 　看管的。前述情形可能会使这家有了纳税人当靠山的控股公司处於更不利的状态。纽 　约州保险监理官 Eric Dinallo 在 9 月 17 日保证 AIG 旗下保险子公司的清偿能力 　没有问题，但对该公司的整体清偿能力则有所保留。 ┌───┬───────────────────────────────── │第五段│ └───┘ 原　文： Ultimately, though, AIG may turn out be worth something after all: in June it had $67 billion of tangible equity, a much bigger buffer relative to assets than existed at Lehman or Bear Stearns. And, says Andrew Rear of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, AIG's insurance assets will attract a lot of interest. That raises the chances of their being sold at a premium, raising cash for the holding company. If the government holds on long enough, perhaps even AIG's CDS contracts might make money. 译　文： 　不过到最後，AIG 说不定还会有些价值：该公司在六月拥有 670 亿美元的实体资产， 　相较於雷曼或贝尔斯登 (Bear Sterns) 所剩资产，其缓冲效果可大得多。此外， 　Oliver Wyman 顾问公司的 Andrew Rear 表示，AIG 的保险资产会引起不少人的兴 　趣。这可增加以溢价卖出这些资产好为该控股公司筹措资金的机会。如果政府持有 　的时间够长，也许连 AIG 的 CDS 契约都能赚点钱。 ╔════╗ ║题目结尾╠════════════════════════════════ ╰════╯ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.24.165 ※ 编辑: TheRock 来自: 122.117.24.165 (11/12 01:48)