以下为本次翻译比赛之参赛译文，欢迎大家多多讨论，并欢迎大家在自己觉得最好的参赛 作品下方推文支持，以作为评审给奖时的参考（有兴趣的人可以猜猜哪一篇是我译的）。 译文内容 ─────────────────────────────────────── Foreign capital ought to be good for countries that have profitable ventures that lack funding because of low savings at home. But Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian argue that for many countries, it is not low savings but a shortage of good investments that is the binding constraint. Weak property rights, poorly enforced contracts and the fear that profits will be siphoned away make it hard to conceive of ventures that might generate a reliable return. When investment opportunities are scarce, capital inflows simply displace domestic savings and encourage consumption. 由於国内储蓄率低，对於具备营利事业却缺乏资金的国家而言， 外资应该有所助益，但Messrs Rodrik 及Subramanian却争论道： 对许多国家而言，并非储蓄率低的问题，而是缺乏好的投资，这就是限制。 财产权、合约的约束力不彰，同时担心利润遭侵蚀， 再再都使人难以想像企业能创造可靠的营收。 当投资机会极少时，资本流入就取代了国内储蓄并刺激消费。 Whatever their misgivings about cosmopolitan capital, the authors do not deny that deeper financial markets in general help to foster prosperity. Even in economies short of good investment projects, a sturdier channel connecting domestic savers and borrowers will help growth. The more domestic savings can be put to work, the less need is there for foreign capital, and using local funds helps keep the exchange rate down and promotes export growth. By contrast, encouraging foreign capital to flood in can put upward pressure on the exchange rate, making exports less competitive. In some circumstances, capital controls may be justified if they keep the currency cheap and promote growth. 不论对於国际资本的担忧为何， 作者并未否认更深的金融市场大致能促进繁荣。 即使在缺乏良好投资计画的经济体中， 连结国内储蓄人与借款人健全的管道也将促进成长。 更多国内储蓄运用於工作，外资的需求因而下降； 运用国内资金能稳定汇率，进而促进出口增长。 相较之下，若鼓励外资流入将会增加货币升值的压力， 使出口企业失去竞争力。 如果让货币持续贬值以提升成长力，资本管制可能就情有可原。 Why do the authors make such a strong case for export-led growth as a means to development in poor countries, even if it is at the expense of more open capital markets? First, they believe, exports are a force for institutional reform. A firm making clothes to sell abroad demands consistent state regulation, reliable transport links and enforceable contracts with suppliers to a degree that a barbershop serving the domestic market does not. Second, exporters foster skills, technology and expertise that can fruitfully spill over to other enterprises. 为何作者如此强调以出口带动经济成长作为穷国的发展方法， 即使意味着需要更开放的资本市场？ 其一、他们坚信出口是制度改革的力量。 制造衣服销往国外企业需要国家法令、交通网络的配合， 还需与供应商签订具法律效力的契约， 但国内一家理发店却不见得需要。 其二、出口商提升技能、科技及专业知识，以胜过其它企业。 Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian conclude that with the benefits of liberalised finance under the microscope in rich countries, it is time for more subtle thinking about the global picture. “Depending on context and country,” they write, “the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them.” Messrs Rodri 及Subramanian总结： 当富国享受金融自由化所带来的利益， 也正是进一步精密思考全球图像的时候。 他们写道：情况取决於不同背景与国家， 政策应同时遏止、鼓励资金流动。 That bold conclusion leaves some troubling issues unresolved. As China's experience suggests, keeping the exchange rate weak in support of export-led growth becomes harder to sustain over time. Nor is it easy to keep foreign capital out. Capital controls can be evaded by adjusting trade invoices: exporters can bring funds in secretly by over-invoicing for foreign sales. The authorities can use sterilised intervention to stop inflows pushing the exchange rate up, but this imposes its own costs on the economy—in terms of higher interest rates or a distorted allocation of credit. 这大胆的结论并未解决棘手的问题。 中国的经验透露出：让货币贬值以提升出口带动经济成长并非长远之计， 也无法有效使外资撤离。 透过调整贸易发票得以规避资本管制： 出口商可以暗地高报外销以携带资金。 有关当局可以介入阻止资金流入推升汇率，但此举也增加自身经济负担， 包括了高利率或扭曲的信用分配。 It is possible too that over time capital inflows are becoming less risky and the collateral benefits more tangible. And more stable direct investments account for an increasing share of capital inflows. Countries will ultimately have to come to terms with global capital and the choice is not only whether to embrace or resist it. There is a third option: find ways to manage it. After all, few would now argue that financial progress should not be policed at all. 资金流入也可能随着时间推移来降低风险、使抵押利益更实际、 稳定直接投资占资金流入日益增加的比例。 国家最终要面对全球资金，而选择不会只有接受或拒绝， 还有另一项选择，那就是找出方法经营。 毕竟，大家几乎都相信：财政进展根本不该受到控管。 ─────────────────────────────────────── 注：参赛译文之张贴顺序与参与顺序、译文品质、最终名次无关。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.218.0.48 ※ 编辑: TheRock 来自: 61.218.0.48 (05/01 03:32)