以下为本次翻译比赛之参赛译文，欢迎大家多多讨论，并欢迎大家在自己觉得最好的参赛 作品下方推文支持，以作为评审给奖时的参考（有兴趣的人可以猜猜哪一篇是我译的）。 译文内容 ─────────────────────────────────────── Foreign capital ought to be good for countries that have profitable ventures that lack funding because of low savings at home. But Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian argue that for many countries, it is not low savings but a shortage of good investments that is the binding constraint. Weak property rights, poorly enforced contracts and the fear that profits will be siphoned away make it hard to conceive of ventures that might generate a reliable return. When investment opportunities are scarce, capital inflows simply displace domestic savings and encourage consumption. 对那些境内的赚钱企业因国内储蓄额过低而欠缺资金的国家来说，外资应该是有益的。 但 Rodrik 先生及 Subramanian 先生却认为，对许多国家而言，真正的限制来自於缺 乏良好的投资标的，而非储蓄额过低。法律上效力微弱的财产权、无法妥当地强制履行 的合约，以及对利润将遭攫夺的恐惧，使得在投资者眼中能产生可靠投资报酬的事业少 之又少。在投资机会匮乏之时，流入的外资能做的只有取代本国储蓄及鼓励消费。 Whatever their misgivings about cosmopolitan capital, the authors do not deny that deeper financial markets in general help to foster prosperity. Even in economies short of good investment projects, a sturdier channel connecting domestic savers and borrowers will help growth. The more domestic savings can be put to work, the less need is there for foreign capital, and using local funds helps keep the exchange rate down and promotes export growth. By contrast, encouraging foreign capital to flood in can put upward pressure on the exchange rate, making exports less competitive. In some circumstances, capital controls may be justified if they keep the currency cheap and promote growth. 但不论这两位作者对国际资本存有何种疑虑，他们并不否认发展深度更深的金融市场基 本上是有助於经济繁荣的。纵使是缺乏良好投资标的的经济体，若国内的储蓄者与借款 者间有更为健全的通联管道，也会有助於经济成长。能发挥作用的国内储蓄额越多，对 外资的需求就越少，而且使用本地资金还有助於将汇率维持在低档并促进出口成长。相 对的，鼓励外资大举进入将对汇率施加升值压力，导致出口竞争力降低。在某些情况下， 若资本控制措施能使货币价格维持在低档并促进成长，是可以肯定其正当性的。 Why do the authors make such a strong case for export-led growth as a means to development in poor countries, even if it is at the expense of more open capital markets? First, they believe, exports are a force for institutional reform. A firm making clothes to sell abroad demands consistent state regulation, reliable transport links and enforceable contracts with suppliers to a degree that a barbershop serving the domestic market does not. Second, exporters foster skills, technology and expertise that can fruitfully spill over to other enterprises. 为什麽这两位作者力陈贫穷国家应以出口导向成长为发展手段，尽管这麽做必须牺牲掉 较开放的资本市场？因为他们认为，第一，出口会是促成制度重整的一股力量。制造成 衣销往国外的企业对国家稳定一致的管制措施、可靠的运输链，以及对供应商可强制履 行之契约的需求程度，远超过在国内市场提供服务的理发店。第二，出口商会促成技能 、科技及专业知识的发展，而这些发展成果将对其他企业带来极大助益。 Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian conclude that with the benefits of liberalised finance under the microscope in rich countries, it is time for more subtle thinking about the global picture. “Depending on context and country,” they write, “the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them.” Rodrik 先生及 Subramanian 先生的结论是，在仔细研究过金融自由化在富裕国家所带 来的好处之後，该是对全球市场进行更精致的思考的时候了。他们写道：「依据所处背 景及国家，所谓适当的政策，有时是遏阻外资潮，有时则是鼓励外资进入。」 That bold conclusion leaves some troubling issues unresolved. As China's experience suggests, keeping the exchange rate weak in support of export-led growth becomes harder to sustain over time. Nor is it easy to keep foreign capital out. Capital controls can be evaded by adjusting trade invoices: exporters can bring funds in secretly by over-invoicing for foreign sales. The authorities can use sterilised intervention to stop inflows pushing the exchange rate up, but this imposes its own costs on the economy—in terms of higher interest rates or a distorted allocation of credit. 该项大胆结论留下了一些未解难题。一如中国的经验所示，维持汇率在低档以协助出口 导向成长的目标，会随着时间的经过变得越来越难以达成，阻挡外资流入也非易事。透 过调整贸易发票便可规避资本管制措施：出口商只要在境外销售额上低额高报便可秘密 地带入资金。主管单位虽可利用冲销干预政策来阻止流入的资金推升汇率，但经济体本 身得付出代价－利率会变得更高，抑或资金的分配会产生扭曲。 It is possible too that over time capital inflows are becoming less risky and the collateral benefits more tangible. And more stable direct investments account for an increasing share of capital inflows. Countries will ultimately have to come to terms with global capital and the choice is not only whether to embrace or resist it. There is a third option: find ways to manage it. After all, few would now argue that financial progress should not be policed at all. 也有可能，流入之外资具有的风险随着时间的经过而降低，其附随利益也可能会变得更 为具体明确。而在流入的外资中，稳定的直接投资所占的比例也可能会逐渐增加。各国 迟早必须面对全球资本的挑战，但其选择并非只有拥抱或拒绝。还有第三个选择：找到 管理的方法。毕竟，现在只有少数人会说金融发展完全不需要控管。 ─────────────────────────────────────── 注：参赛译文之张贴顺序与参与顺序、译文品质、最终名次无关。 --

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