以下为本次翻译比赛之参赛译文，欢迎大家多多讨论，并欢迎大家在自己觉得最好的参赛 作品下方推文支持，以作为评审给奖时的参考（有兴趣的人可以猜猜哪一篇是我译的）。 译文内容 ─────────────────────────────────────── Foreign capital ought to be good for countries that have profitable ventures that lack funding because of low savings at home. But Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian argue that for many countries, it is not low savings but a shortage of good investments that is the binding constraint. Weak property rights, poorly enforced contracts and the fear that profits will be siphoned away make it hard to conceive of ventures that might generate a reliable return. When investment opportunities are scarce, capital inflows simply displace domestic savings and encourage consumption. 外国资本对於某些国家照理来说是件好事。这些国家拥有会赚钱的企业，可是 这些企业却因为国内存款不足而缺乏资金。但Messrs Rodrik与Subramanian却 认为，不是存款不足造成了限制，而是因为缺乏好的投资。产权不清、契约无 法执行、害怕利益被分走，都不利於建立一个能赚取稳定收益的企业。投资机 会一旦变少，流入的资本就能轻易地取代本地存款，开始促进消费。 Whatever their misgivings about cosmopolitan capital, the authors do not deny that deeper financial markets in general help to foster prosperity. Even in economies short of good investment projects, a sturdier channel connecting domestic savers and borrowers will help growth. The more domestic savings can be put to work, the less need is there for foreign capital, and using local funds helps keep the exchange rate down and promotes export growth. By contrast, encouraging foreign capital to flood in can put upward pressure on the exchange rate, making exports less competitive. In some circumstances, capital controls may be justified if they keep the currency cheap and promote growth. 姑且不论他们对於国际资本有什麽疑虑，两位作者并不否认，一般来说，深层 的金融市场有助於促进经济繁荣。即使经济体中缺乏良好的投资标的，若能有 坚强的管道来连结本地存款户与借款人，对於经济成长将会有帮助。本地存款 愈能发挥效果，就愈不需要外国资本，而且使用本地资金有助於让汇率持贬， 促进出口成长。相反地，鼓励外国资本流入会让汇率承受升值的压力，削弱出 口的竞争力。在某些情况下，假如通货能保持贬值，促进经济成长，那麽资本 控制是事属合理的。 Why do the authors make such a strong case for export-led growth as a means to development in poor countries, even if it is at the expense of more open capital markets? First, they believe, exports are a force for institutional reform. A firm making clothes to sell abroad demands consistent state regulation, reliable transport links and enforceable contracts with suppliers to a degree that a barbershop serving the domestic market does not. Second, exporters foster skills, technology and expertise that can fruitfully spill over to other enterprises. 为什麽两位作者会如此推崇以出口导向经济成长作为贫穷国家的发展工具，即 使得以更开放的资本市场为代价也在所不惜？首先，他们相信，出口会迫使制 度改革。一间外销成衣的工厂对於稳定的国家法规、可信赖的运输线和有力契 约的需求远超过只提供服务给本地市场的理发店。其次，出口商所培养出的技 巧、技术和专门知识可以泽润其他企业，带来卓越的成效。 Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian conclude that with the benefits of liberalised finance under the microscope in rich countries, it is time for more subtle thinking about the global picture. “Depending on context and country,” they write, “the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them.” Messrs Rodrik 与 Subramanian最後总结道，在富裕国家的显微镜底下看过了 自由化金融的好处，是该细致地思考全球局势的时候了。「依背景与国家而定 ，」他们写道，「政策的适切角色，是阻挡与鼓励资本流动之潮并重的。」 That bold conclusion leaves some troubling issues unresolved. As China's experience suggests, keeping the exchange rate weak in support of export-led growth becomes harder to sustain over time. Nor is it easy to keep foreign capital out. Capital controls can be evaded by adjusting trade invoices: exporters can bring funds in secretly by over-invoicing for foreign sales. The authorities can use sterilised intervention to stop inflows pushing the exchange rate up, but this imposes its own costs on the economy—in terms of higher interest rates or a distorted allocation of credit. 这个以黑体字强调的结论留下了几个麻烦的问题有待解决。正如中国的经验所 显示，要长期维持汇率疲软来支持出口导向经济成长是愈来愈困难了。也很难 一直将外国资本拒於门外。只要稍微调整出货单就能轻易规避资本控制：对外 国溢开发票，出口商就可以偷偷地带进资金。政府当局可以全面介入，阻止资 金流入造成的汇率上升，但这也会使本身的经济结构付出代价──更高的利息 ，或是扭曲的信贷分配。 It is possible too that over time capital inflows are becoming less risky and the collateral benefits more tangible. And more stable direct investments account for an increasing share of capital inflows. Countries will ultimately have to come to terms with global capital and the choice is not only whether to embrace or resist it. There is a third option: find ways to manage it. After all, few would now argue that financial progress should not be policed at all. 也有可能，经过一段时间後，流入的资本会变得比较不具风险，伴随而来的利 益也会变得较为可及。何况，愈来愈多稳定的直接投资证明了资本流入份额在 持续增加中。国家最终还是必须与全球资本妥协，但他们的选择不会只是拥抱 或是拒绝而已。第三个选项是：找到方法来管制。毕竟，现在很少有人会说财 政的进步完全不应该有所管制了。 ─────────────────────────────────────── 注：参赛译文之张贴顺序与参与顺序、译文品质、最终名次无关。 --

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