以下为本次翻译比赛之参赛译文，欢迎大家多多讨论，并欢迎大家在自己觉得最好的参赛 作品下方推文支持，以作为评审给奖时的参考（有兴趣的人可以猜猜哪一篇是我译的）。 译文内容 ─────────────────────────────────────── Foreign capital ought to be good for countries that have profitable ventures that lack funding because of low savings at home. But Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian argue that for many countries, it is not low savings but a shortage of good investments that is the binding constraint. Weak property rights, poorly enforced contracts and the fear that profits will be siphoned away make it hard to conceive of ventures that might generate a reliable return. When investment opportunities are scarce, capital inflows simply displace domestic savings and encourage consumption. 对於具获利投机但因国内储蓄率低而缺乏资金的国家，境外资金可说是一件好事。 但梅瑟‧罗理克与萨拉马尼亚提出争议说很多国家不是因为储蓄率低而是良好投资 机会的短缺，以致束缚重重。低下的产权，执行不良的契约及获利抽头的恐惧，使 可能产生可靠获利的资金更难投入。当投资机会稀少，资金挹注仅是替换国内储蓄 金额而刺激消费。 Whatever their misgivings about cosmopolitan capital, the authors do not deny that deeper financial markets in general help to foster prosperity. Even in economies short of good investment projects, a sturdier channel connecting domestic savers and borrowers will help growth. The more domestic savings can be put to work, the less need is there for foreign capital, and using local funds helps keep the exchange rate down and promotes export growth. By contrast, encouraging foreign capital to flood in can put upward pressure on the exchange rate, making exports less competitive. In some circumstances, capital controls may be justified if they keep the currency cheap and promote growth. 不管全球性热钱误入何途，作者并不否认资金深入市场整体上能促进繁荣。即使经 济面缺少了良好的投资计画，在国内稳固良好的储蓄与借贷管道也会促进经济成长。 更多的国内储金可拿来使用，缺少的就是境外资金的到位，而运用本地资金可使汇 率下降，并提高出口成长。相对来说，鼓励境外资金流入可上调汇率压力，让出口 较不具竞争力。在某些情况下，资金管控可由保持汇差及提高经济成长来做调整。 Why do the authors make such a strong case for export-led growth as a means to development in poor countries, even if it is at the expense of more open capital markets? First, they believe, exports are a force for institutional reform. A firm making clothes to sell abroad demands consistent state regulation, reliable transport links and enforceable contracts with suppliers to a degree that a barbershop serving the domestic market does not. Second, exporters foster skills, technology and expertise that can fruitfully spill over to other enterprises. 为何作者要做如此强烈的陈述，说明出口导向的成长做为贫穷国家发展之途，即使 在更多开放资金的市场也是如此吗？首先，他们相新出口是导致体制改革的一种力 量。ㄧ个出口成衣的企业需要长期一致的国家规范、可靠的运输链，以及执行有力 的契约使供应者有所遵从，这跟国内理发店招待客人这种小众市场是不一样的。再 来，出口企业会促进技术提昇，科技及专门技术的进步能雨露均沾地及於其他企业。 Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian conclude that with the benefits of liberalised finance under the microscope in rich countries, it is time for more subtle thinking about the global picture. “Depending on context and country,” they write, “the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them.” 梅瑟‧罗理克与萨拉马尼亚的结论是，富强国家微观审视下自由化金融的利益，是 应审慎考量做全球擘画的时刻了。他们说：「监於法条本身与国别的不同，适当的 政策角色时而会堵住资金浪潮，时而会刺激资金浪潮涌入。」 That bold conclusion leaves some troubling issues unresolved. As China's experience suggests, keeping the exchange rate weak in support of export-led growth becomes harder to sustain over time. Nor is it easy to keep foreign capital out. Capital controls can be evaded by adjusting trade invoices: exporters can bring funds in secretly by over-invoicing for foreign sales. The authorities can use sterilised intervention to stop inflows pushing the exchange rate up, but this imposes its own costs on the economy—in terms of higher interest rates or a distorted allocation of credit. 如此大胆的结论也留下了麻烦难解的议题。如中国的经验指出，藉着出口导向成长 保持汇率低下，会随着时间日久而更难维持，而且也难以使境外资金流出。资金管 控可由调整贸易提单避险：出口企业可私下高估国外销售获得资金。而有关当局可 做安全适当的介入已停止资金流入而拉高汇率，但这会使本身经济多加成本，也就 是较高的利率或扭曲的信用分配。 It is possible too that over time capital inflows are becoming less risky and the collateral benefits more tangible. And more stable direct investments account for an increasing share of capital inflows. Countries will ultimately have to come to terms with global capital and the choice is not only whether to embrace or resist it. There is a third option: find ways to manage it. After all, few would now argue that financial progress should not be policed at all. 也有可能长期的资金流入变成为较不具风险，同时其立意是实质明显的。更稳定的 直接投资也导致了资金流入的增加。所有国家最终都会与全球资金息息相关，而选 择不只有拥抱它或抗拒它，还有第三个选择：管理它。毕竟，现在应该少有人会争 辩金融发展不应该有政策法令约束。 ─────────────────────────────────────── 注：参赛译文之张贴顺序与参与顺序、译文品质、最终名次无关。 --

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