以下为本次翻译比赛之参赛译文，欢迎大家多多讨论，并欢迎大家在自己觉得最好的参赛 作品下方推文支持，以作为评审给奖时的参考（有兴趣的人可以猜猜哪一篇是我译的）。 译文内容 ─────────────────────────────────────── Foreign capital ought to be good for countries that have profitable ventures that lack funding because of low savings at home. But Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian argue that for many countries, it is not low savings but a shortage of good investments that is the binding constraint. Weak property rights, poorly enforced contracts and the fear that profits will be siphoned away make it hard to conceive of ventures that might generate a reliable return. When investment opportunities are scarce, capital inflows simply displace domestic savings and encourage consumption. 外资理应对拥有获利企业, 却因为国内储蓄低落而缺乏资金的国家有所助益. 但Messrs Rodrick 和 Subramanian 认为很多国家的限制来自缺少好的投资标的而非低储 蓄率. 投资人往往因为所有权薄弱, 合约执行不彰, 获利回收可能受阻等因素, 而难以预 见能产生稳定获利的企业. 当投资机会稀少时, 外国资金挹注更强化本国存款之误置且鼓励消费 Whatever their misgivings about cosmopolitan capital, the authors do not deny that deeper financial markets in general help to foster prosperity. Even in economies short of good investment projects, a sturdier channel connecting domestic savers and borrowers will help growth. The more domestic savings can be put to work, the less need is there for foreign capital, and using local funds helps keep the exchange rate down and promotes export growth. By contrast, encouraging foreign capital to flood in can put upward pressure on the exchange rate, making exports less competitive. In some circumstances, capital controls may be justified if they keep the currency cheap and promote growth. 姑且不论两位作者对全球资金持怎样的怀疑态度, 他们并不否认整体金融市场的深广能够 促进繁荣. 就算是在一个缺乏优质投资标地的经济体中, 连结家户储蓄者和借款人的管道 越稳固就依然能帮助经济成长. 而越多本国存款能被加以利用就越能减缓对外资的需求并 同时保持汇率平稳且促进出口成长.相反的, 鼓励外资涌入可能产生货币升值压力且造成 出口业竞争力下滑. 在某些情况下, 外汇管制是合理的, 如果这麽做可以保持较低汇率且促进成长. Why do the authors make such a strong case for export-led growth as a means to development in poor countries, even if it is at the expense of more open capital markets? First, they believe, exports are a force for institutional reform. A firm making clothes to sell abroad demands consistent state regulation, reliable transport links and enforceable contracts with suppliers to a degree that a barbershop serving the domestic market does not. Second, exporters foster skills, technology and expertise that can fruitfully spill over to other enterprises. 何以两位作者如此强烈支持贫穷国家以出口导向经济作为发展方向? 甚至不惜牺牲更开放 的资本市场? 首先, 他们相信出口是促进制度改革的力量. 一家成衣外销商会要求国家法 规的稳定一致, 可靠的运输系统和与供应商间的合约具有执行力. 而这些并非一个服务本 国市场的理发厅所能达到的. 再者, 出口商培养的专业能力, 技术, 与科技所得到的成果 亦能为其他企业所利用. Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian conclude that with the benefits of liberalised finance under the microscope in rich countries, it is time for more subtle thinking about the global picture. “Depending on context and country,” they write, “the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them.” Messrs Rodrik 和 Subramanian 做出如下结论: 在富国正全面检讨开放金融的真正利益 时, 对於全球金融运作也该做更细微仔细的思考. 他们写到"在不同的国家与情况下, 恰 当的政策很可能鼓励资金流动亦同样可能阻断资金进出" That bold conclusion leaves some troubling issues unresolved. As China's experience suggests, keeping the exchange rate weak in support of export-led growth becomes harder to sustain over time. Nor is it easy to keep foreign capital out. Capital controls can be evaded by adjusting trade invoices: exporters can bring funds in secretly by over-invoicing for foreign sales. The authorities can use sterilised intervention to stop inflows pushing the exchange rate up, but this imposes its own costs on the economy—in terms of higher interest rates or a distorted allocation of credit. 这个大胆的结论仍旧无法解决一些让人困扰的问题. 以中国的经验为例, 压低汇率来支持 出口经济会随着时间越来越难维持. 禁止外资流入也绝非易事. 稍微修改发票就可避开管 制, 例如出口商将货单上的货款灌水即可私下输入外币. 政府当局可采用冲销政策杜绝外 资流入推升汇率, 但此措施在经济面上自有代价: 利率的提升或国内资金的错误分配. It is possible too that over time capital inflows are becoming less risky and the collateral benefits more tangible. And more stable direct investments account for an increasing share of capital inflows. Countries will ultimately have to come to terms with global capital and the choice is not only whether to embrace or resist it. There is a third option: find ways to manage it. After all, few would now argue that financial progress should not be policed at all. 也有可能. 随时间过去, 外资风险会降低而附加利益变得更具体. 同时, 稳定的直接投资 占汇入外资的比率亦随之增加. 终究, 各国必须跟全球资金妥协共处, 而选项不只是全面 接受或完全杜绝而已. 第三个选项为:妥善管理. 毕竟, 现今鲜少人会认为金融发展完全 不应受到监督. ─────────────────────────────────────── 注：参赛译文之张贴顺序与参与顺序、译文品质、最终名次无关。 --

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