以下为本次翻译比赛之参赛译文，欢迎大家多多讨论，并欢迎大家在自己觉得最好的参赛 作品下方推文支持，以作为评审给奖时的参考（有兴趣的人可以猜猜哪一篇是我译的）。 译文内容 ─────────────────────────────────────── Foreign capital ought to be good for countries that have profitable ventures that lack funding because of low savings at home. But Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian argue that for many countries, it is not low savings but a shortage of good investments that is the binding constraint. Weak property rights, poorly enforced contracts and the fear that profits will be siphoned away make it hard to conceive of ventures that might generate a reliable return. When investment opportunities are scarce, capital inflows simply displace domestic savings and encourage consumption. 国内储汇偏低，无法资助可获利投资时，外国资金应为一项利多。 不过丹尼‧罗瑞克（哈佛大学教授）和萨拉曼亚（经济学家）主张： 许多国家并不是因受束於资短缺，而是没有良好的投资对象。 当财产所有权微弱，合约不能确实履行，恐惧於收益一点一滴流失， 要策划能可靠获益的投资很困难。 投资机会稀少，资金内流便会取代国内储汇的脚色，刺激消费。 Whatever their misgivings about cosmopolitan capital, the authors do not deny that deeper financial markets in general help to foster prosperity. Even in economies short of good investment projects, a sturdier channel connecting domestic savers and borrowers will help growth. The more domestic savings can be put to work, the less need is there for foreign capital, and using local funds helps keep the exchange rate down and promotes export growth. By contrast, encouraging foreign capital to flood in can put upward pressure on the exchange rate, making exports less competitive. In some circumstances, capital controls may be justified if they keep the currency cheap and promote growth. 作者们对於全球性资金仍有疑虑，不过他们倒是不否认，市场越扎根越深越繁荣。 就算经济体缺乏良好的投资项目，在储蓄人和借款人之间建立稳当的通路也能增益成长。 国内储蓄运用越彻底，对外来资金的需求就越低， 而且运用在地资金可以压制汇率并促进出口成长。 相反地，助长外国资金流入会使汇率迫势上涨，出口竞争力下降。 在某些情况下，资金控管若是能压低汇率促进成长，便是合理的措施。 Why do the authors make such a strong case for export-led growth as a means to development in poor countries, even if it is at the expense of more open capital markets? First, they believe, exports are a force for institutional reform. A firm making clothes to sell abroad demands consistent state regulation, reliable transport links and enforceable contracts with suppliers to a degree that a barbershop serving the domestic market does not. Second, exporters foster skills, technology and expertise that can fruitfully spill over to other enterprises. 作者为什麽要在代价是松懈资金市场的管制下， 强力主张贫穷国家应该利用出口经济取得成长呢？ 首先，他们以为出口贸易能带来革新组织的力量。 一间成衣工厂销货至外国需要政府的稳定控管，可靠的物流交通还有有能力履 约供货的厂商，其规模是一家只对国人提供服务理发店远所不及的。 再来就是其他企业可以分沾出口商所培养成熟的技能、科技和专业。 Messrs Rodrik and Subramanian conclude that with the benefits of liberalised finance under the microscope in rich countries, it is time for more subtle thinking about the global picture. “Depending on context and country,” they write, “the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them.” 罗瑞克和萨拉曼亚总结：自由经济的优势早已被富裕国家探看穷尽， 对於全球布局要有更细微的思考。 「依据国情与事件的不同，正确的政策不只是要鼓励资金流入，也要有所限制。」 That bold conclusion leaves some troubling issues unresolved. As China's experience suggests, keeping the exchange rate weak in support of export-led growth becomes harder to sustain over time. Nor is it easy to keep foreign capital out. Capital controls can be evaded by adjusting trade invoices: exporters can bring funds in secretly by over-invoicing for foreign sales. The authorities can use sterilised intervention to stop inflows pushing the exchange rate up, but this imposes its own costs on the economy—in terms of higher interest rates or a distorted allocation of credit. 这项大胆的结论仍未能解决某些令人忧心的议题。 以中国为例，要长期维持弱势货币以支持出口为主的贸易， 随着时间难度越来越高，要防堵外国资金流入也非易事。 调动商业发票可以逃避资金控管：出口商开过高的国外交易发票，暗地引入资金。 主管单位采取冲销政策是可以遏止资金流入推高汇率， 但经济体本身也要付出代价，像是更高的利率或是金融资源分配扭曲。 It is possible too that over time capital inflows are becoming less risky and the collateral benefits more tangible. And more stable direct investments account for an increasing share of capital inflows. Countries will ultimately have to come to terms with global capital and the choice is not only whether to embrace or resist it. There is a third option: find ways to manage it. After all, few would now argue that financial progress should not be policed at all. 另外可能发生的事情是资本内流的风险逐渐降低，附带的利益逐渐明朗成型。 稳定的直接投资占内流资金的部份也越来越大。 各国终究需和全球资本妥协， 而且也并非单纯抉择接受或是排斥，还有第三个选择：想办法管理。 毕竟现在人们已不再主张完全不受控管的经济成长了。 ─────────────────────────────────────── 注：参赛译文之张贴顺序与参与顺序、译文品质、最终名次无关。 --

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