※ 引述《plamc (普兰可)》之铭言： : ※ 引述《sdhws (sdhws)》之铭言： : 问题前提错误 : 来看看刚刚才阿萨德倒台的叙利亚，叙利亚在阿萨德爸之前，也是一直政变轮回 : 大体来说一直政变轮回才是战後初创国家的常态，不政变的才是有特别优越之处 : 以阿萨德家来说，阿萨德爸真的强，从混情报出身，一路往上爬罩家族罩全族 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ : 最後整个阿拉维派都被他拉进情报单位了，所以等到阿萨德爸最後不得不政变 : ...他没有一开始就想当老大，只是要在乱世求生存要跟随胜利者，一直跟对边 : 一直升官，升到最後天下第二却发现老板是87会倒台，只好取代他... : 就变成很稳固的情治机构统治结构，因为整个情报单位都是自己人 : 所以问题问法错误，连续政变才是正常的，没问题，根本不用问 : 是没政变的才不正常，才要问为什麽 查了一下阿萨德的父亲-老阿萨德(Hafez al-Assad)的资料: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hafez_al-Assad Hafez was in charge of the Syrian Air Force.[33] By the end of 1964 he was named commander of the Air Force, with the rank of major general.[33] Hafez gave privileges to Air Force officers, appointed his confidants to senior and sensitive positions and established an efficient intelligence network.[38] Air Force Intelligence, under the command of Muhammad al-Khuli, became independent of Syria's other intelligence organizations and received assignments beyond Air Force jurisdiction.[38] Assad prepared himself for an active role in the power struggles that lay ahead.[38] 老阿萨德是空军出身，再利用自己空军指挥官的地位建立与自己有裙带关系的情报组织。 In 1957, as squadron commander, Assad was sent to the Soviet Union for training in flying MiG-17s. 原来老阿萨德当年也是去苏联受过训。 蒋经国年轻的时候也去苏联读过军校。 感觉受苏联栽培过的领导者在位时比较能够长久维持政权？ --

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