※ [本文转录自 movie 看板 #1JYOxV-0 ] 作者: sampsonlu919 (时机若对 我想开辛普森版) 看板: movie 标题: [外电] 谁会是今年第一家10亿票房片厂？ 时间: Sat May 31 16:12:11 2014 Which Studio Will Be First to $1 Billion This Year? http://bit.ly/1jFuv4G by Ray Subers 前言：知名票房分析网站Box Office Mojo的写手Ray Subers，在四月底至五月初时， 写了一些有关今年暑期电影市场的预测文章，其中有一篇更是直接将今年好莱坞六大 片场各自的菜单，作了一番深入浅出的分析。我个人认为此文章虽然有一些时间差， 但仍有一定的参考价值，因此还是将此文po上来给大家分享。 以下是Ray Subers在针对六大片场的态势作逐家分析之前，第一大段的概要 1.今年的5月11日之後，好莱坞已经有三家片厂的年度票房收入来到5亿美金(文後单位亦 同)，他们分别是迪士尼、华纳与索尼。而福斯与环球的年营收也已经在五月下旬跨入这 个门槛 2.从2007之後，每年都会有至少一家片厂，其票房总收入在七月中旬超过十亿美金，迪 士尼已经在2012&13连续两年率先达标，而现在气势较弱的派拉蒙也曾经在2009风光过 3.当然，第一个达到年营收十亿的片厂，必不代表可以继续在年终成为霸主。这十年来 ，率先十亿与年终市占率保持领先只有三次发生过，他们分别是2004的索尼、2007与 2011的派拉蒙 接下来是Ray Subers对好莱坞六大片场的逐家分析 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 迪士尼 Disney 2014现阶段收入 Year-to-Date: $541 million(on May 13, 2014) $571.7 million(on May 25, 2014) 2014暑假档前最成功电影 Biggest Hits: Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($245 million), Frozen ($137.4 million). ．美国队长2(美国票房破2.5亿) ．冰雪奇缘(美国票房破四亿，有1.37亿来自今年) 2014暑假档重要电影 Upcoming Releases: Million Dollar Arm (May 16), Maleficent (May 30), Planes: Fire and Rescue (July 18), Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug. 1) ．少年Pi主角主演棒球剧情片「百万金臂」 ．裘莉主演奇幻冒险片「黑魔女：沈睡诅咒」 ．动画喜剧续集「飞机总动员2」 ．漫威制作科幻动作片「星际异攻队」 分析 Analysis: So far this year, Disney is the highest-grossing studio with $541 million. That's thanks in large part to Captain America, which accounts for over 45 percent of that revenue. 迪士尼在五月中旬此文截稿时，是当时美国收入最高的片厂，而这最大的功臣就是美国 队长－其续集占了迪士尼现阶段电影票房收入的45%。 Disney's Summer schedule is lighter than usual, though. Million Dollar Arm will do modest business—maybe $50 million or so. Maleficent is the type of big-budget fantasy that can deliver huge numbers, though the marketing hasn't really connected. A gross on par with Snow White and the Huntsman ($155.3 million) is probably the best-case scenario. In July, Planes: Fire and Rescue could take advantage of a dearth of family fare and earn close to $100 million. 然而，迪士尼今年暑假档的阵容，跟过往相比算是稍微薄弱。「百万金臂」应该会成为 5千万水准的中等卖座片。「黑魔女」理论上应该是能够带来高收益的大成本奇幻片， 但宣传的效果似乎没预期中好，最好的票房模版应该是此片制作人前年与环球合作的「 公主与狩猎者」。七月上映的「飞机总动员2」有机会靠着缺乏其他家庭导向电影的优 势，把票房冲到一亿附近。 If all of that works out, it would put Disney around $850 million without Guardians of the Galaxy, which opens on August 1. That should do well enough to push the studio over the $1 billion mark by the end of August. 假如以上三部片都能达到上述基准，迪士尼在「星际异攻队」上映前，就能把今年票房 收入累积到8.5亿，没有太大意外的话，GOG的票房可望让迪士尼在八月底把年收入推至 10亿。 Odds: 15% ----------------------------- 索尼 Sony 2014现阶段收入Year-to-Date: $524 million(on May 13, 2014) $577 million(on May 25, 2014) 2014暑假档前最成功电影 Biggest Hits: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($145.2 million), American Hustle($82.6 million), The Monuments Men ($78 million), Heaven is for Real ($75.7 million). ．蜘蛛人惊奇再起2(目前美国票房1.8亿) ．蛮天大布局(美国票房1.5亿，有55%戏院收入来自今年) ．大卡司战争动作片「大寻宝家」(美国票房7800万) ．基督主题剧情片「看见天堂」(美国票房破8千万) 2014暑假档重要电影 Upcoming Releases: 22 Jump Street (June 13), Think Like a Man Too (June 20),Deliver Us From Evil (July 25), Sex Tape (July 25) ．校园卧底喜剧「龙虎少年队2」 ．黑人导向浪漫喜剧「男人行不行2」 ．艾瑞克班纳主演犯罪惊悚片「恶魔刑事录」 ．卡麦容迪亚主演限制级性导向喜剧「爱爱上云端」 分析 Analysis: Sony has had a good year so far, though that's due mostly to having eight nationwide releases (more than any other studio). Their top title, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, is poised to be the lowest-grossing Spider-Man yet, though it is going to earn at least another $60 million before the end of its run. Faith- based hit Heaven is for Real could also add another $30 million or so. 索尼今年为止的表现还算让人满意，不过这也是有八部大规模发行电影的累积效应 (比 其他片场还多)。他们的头号强片「蜘蛛人惊奇再起2」将会创下蜘蛛人在美国的票房新 低，但应该还是可以勉强跨过两亿大关。以基督教徒作为号招的「看见天堂」则有机会 缔造破亿奇蹟。 Looking ahead, comedy sequels 22 Jump Street and Think Like a Man Too should earn at least $200 million (their predecessors add up to $230 million). With a very memorable trailer, Deliver Us From Evil could surprise in early July. Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel are an appealing pair, though Sex Tape is a big question mark right now. If one or more of these titles overperforms, Sony should be at $1 billion by the end of Summer. 在索尼今年未来的电影方面：「龙虎少年队2」与「男人行不行2」两部喜剧续集没意外 的话应该可以带来总共两亿的票房(他们的第一集在美国累积票房有2.3亿)。惊悚片「 恶魔刑事录」靠着让人印象深刻的预告片，有机会成为七月上旬的黑马卖座片。卡麦容 迪亚与杰森席格固然是讨喜的喜剧组合，但「爱爱上云端」的票房趋势仍然要打上问号 。不过，假如上述电影有任一部能开出比预期好的票房，索尼应该可以在暑假结束前进 入十亿俱乐部。 Odds: 10% -------------------------------- 华纳兄弟 Warner Bros. 2014现阶段收入 Year-to-Date: $516 million(on May 13, 2014) $681.5 million(on May 25, 2014) 2014暑假档前最成功电影 Biggest Hits: The LEGO Movie ($253.7 million), 300: Rise of An Empire ($106.2 million). 乐高玩电影、三百壮士2(两者均在美国破亿，其中前者甚至卖破2.5亿) 2014暑假档重要电影 Upcoming Releases: Godzilla (May 16), Blended (May 23), Edge of Tomorrow(June 6), Jersey Boys (June 20), Tammy (July 2), Jupiter Ascending (July 18) ．灾难动作片「哥吉拉」 ．亚当山德勒与茱儿巴莉摩主演浪漫喜剧「当我们混在一起」 ．汤姆克鲁斯主演科幻动作片「明日边界」 ．克林伊斯威特音乐传记片「纽泽西男孩」 ．梅莉莎麦卡西主演公路喜剧「谭美」 ．蜜拉库妮丝主演科幻动作片「朱比特崛起」 分析 Analysis: 2014 has been the year of The LEGO Movie for Warner Bros.—the animated hit accounts for nearly half of its earnings so far. 300: Rise of an Empire also did fine business, though it's wrapping up with around half as much as its predecessor. WB also has two major flops in Transcendence and Winter's Tale. 2014对华纳来说可说是靠「乐高玩电影」拯救公司地位的一年－这部动画喜剧在华纳今年 第一季的收入占了将近50%的比重。三百壮士续集的成绩固然也不差，但毕竟在美国本土 跟第一集相比还是缩水了一半。「全面进化」与「冬季奇蹟」两部大卡司电影的惨败，对 华纳的士气多少有一定的冲击。 Their Summer is packed with new releases—between now and the end of July, they've got six titles coming out.Godzilla is the safest bet, and all signs point to it delivering around $200 million. The rest of the lineup is tougher to predict. 华纳今年暑假的电影不但多，而且都不是续集大片。从五月到七月，他们有高达6部电影 要在电影院上映。而哥吉拉应该是当中行情最稳健的，所有的迹象都暗示这部怪兽灾难 片光在美国就可以带来两亿的收入。然而，华纳其他的暑假电影就不是那麽容易预测了 。 Blended may be one of those rare Adam Sandler movies to fall short of $100 million; still, it should at least come close to Jack & Jill ($74.2 million). The last original Tom Cruise movie to earn over $100 million was 2005's War of the Worlds, and Edge of Tomorrow probably won't buck that trend. It's hard to imagine Jersey Boys breaking out, and Tammy lacks the strong hook of recent Melissa McCarthy's 2013 hits Identity Thief and The Heat. Jupiter Ascending is a wild card, though as of now it looks more like John Carter ($73.1 million) than The Matrix ($171.5 million). 「当我们混在一起」恐怕会成为亚当山德勒少数无法在美国破亿的电影，但起码还是会有 靠近「龙凤大双胞」的数字。阿汤哥上次不依靠「不可能的任务」系列在美国破亿的电影 是9年前的世界大战，明日边界大概也不会有这麽好的卖座行情。伊斯威特的新片「纽泽 西男孩」看来不容易有突破性的票房数字，「谭美」的吸引力也不如梅莉莎麦卡西去年两 部代表作(窃资达人与麻辣交锋)。「朱比特崛起」是一张潜力外卡，但现阶段的走势看来 更像「强卡特战记」而非导演代表作「骇客任务」。 Still, if all of those perform in line with modest expectations, Warner Bros. should be passing $1 billion by the end of July. 不过，上述的电影假如能在卖座走势能有稳定的水平，华纳应该还是能在七月底跨过十亿 的关卡。 Odds: 25% -------------------------------- 环球 Universal Year-to-Date: $438 million(on May 13, 2014) $502.9 million(on May 25, 2014) 2014暑假档前最成功电影 Biggest Hits: Ride Along ($134.2 million), Lone Survivor ($124.9 million), Non-Stop ($91.1 million) ．黑人搭档喜剧「一路前行」(美国票房破亿) ．红翼行动(美国票房破亿，马克华柏格生涯第5高票房) ．空中救援(美国票房九千万，连恩尼逊生涯第八高票房) 2014暑假档重要电影 Upcoming Releases: A Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30th), The Purge: Anarchy (July 18), Get On Up (August 1) ．熊麻吉导演自导自演西部喜剧「百万种硬的方式」 ．屠杀惊悚片续集「国定杀戮日2」 ．传奇歌星詹姆斯布朗传记电影「激乐人心」 分析 Analysis: Universal has had a very good year at the domestic box office. Including recent hit Neighbors, the studio has had four original, modestly-budgeted movies open in first place. By the end of May, Universal should be near $550 million. 环球上半年在美国本土的成绩相当优秀，假如把上映不久的喜剧「恶邻缠身」算进去的 话，环球已经有4部中等成本的原创剧本电影，在美国拿到冠军席位。而环球也有机会 在五月结束时，把今年的业绩冲高到5.5亿。 Unfortunately, the remainder of their Summer is weak; Universal was supposed to have Fast & Furious 7 in July, but that had to be moved to next April after star Paul Walker's unexpected passing. A Million Ways to Die in the West could be a hit, but it won't come close to Ted levels. The Purge: Anarchy may wind up on par with the first Purge ($64.5 million), though that's far from a guarantee. The studio has a handful of movies opening in August—Get on Up looks particularly strong—though it's unlikely it gets anywhere near $1 billion before the end of September. 不幸的是，环球其他的暑假档电影的吸引力似乎不强。环球本来打算要将必卖动作片「 玩命关头7」摆在七月，但由於保罗沃克去年意外车祸的影响，片商被迫把档期延後到 明年四月。「百万种硬的方式」有机会成为卖座片，但显然不会有导演前作「熊麻吉」 那样的成就。「国定杀戮日2」的票房有可能跟第一集一样高，但并没有获得业界影评 的一致保证。环球在八月会有不少电影当做暑假档的压轴片，而「激乐人心」看起来 是现阶段行情最好的一部。不过，环球直到9月结束前都不可能把今年的票房收入靠近 10亿美金的门槛。 Odds: 2% -------------------------------- 福斯 Fox Year-to-Date: $401 million(on May 13, 2014) $517.2 million(on May 25, 2014) 2014暑假档前最成功电影 Biggest Hits: Rio 2 ($113.1 million), Mr. Peabody & Sherman ($108.9 million), The Other Woman ($62.1 million), Son of God ($59.7 million) ．里约大冒险2与「皮巴迪先生与薛曼的时空冒险」两部破亿动画喜剧 ．浪漫喜剧「妇仇者联盟」(美国票房破8千万，卡麦容迪亚真人演出电影第十高) ．耶苏传记片「上帝之子」(美国票房近6千万，基督相关电影第六高) 2014暑假档重要电影 Upcoming Releases: X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), The Fault in our Stars (June 6), How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11) ．大卡司科幻动作续集「X战警：未来昔日」 ．分歧者女主角新作「生命中的美好缺憾」 ．动画冒险续集「驯龙高手2」 ．科幻灾难续集「猩球崛起2」 分析Analysis: 20th Century Fox has had a fine year so far: Rio 2 and Mr. Peabody & Sherman both wound up with over $100 million, while The Other Woman is exceeding most expectations. 福斯今年的起步也算不错，里约大冒险2与「皮巴迪先生」都有在美国破亿，妇仇者联盟 的成绩也已经超乎业界的预期。 More importantly, the studio has the strongest Summer 2014 lineup. With X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Fault in our Stars and How to Train Your Dragon 2, they could dominate every weekend between Memorial Day and the end of June. By early July, those three titles should add up to at least $500 million—around $450 million split between X-Men and Dragon, plus $50 million for Fault—which would put Fox close to $1 billion. Add in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, and Fox should have no problem reaching that mark as early as mid-July. 更重要的是，福斯今年暑假的片单可说是六大片场最坚强的，从五月底的阵亡将士纪念假 期(X战警)到六月底(驯龙高手2)的三部片，都有机会成为美国票房的周末冠军，而这三部 片也可望带来5亿的累积票房(X战警与驯龙相加4.5亿，分歧者女主角新片五千万)，并将 福斯的年度票房收入推到靠近10亿。再加上有一定水平的猩球崛起2，福斯在七月中旬达 到10亿关卡几乎不成问题。 Odds: 45% -------------------------------- 派拉蒙 Paramount Year-to-Date: $321 million(on May 25, 2014) 2014第一季最成功电影 Biggest Hits: Noah ($99.9 million), The Wolf of Wall Street ($75.5 million) ．挪亚方舟(美国票房破亿，罗素克洛生涯第七高票房) ．华尔街之狼(美国票房破亿，有60%票房收入来自今年) 2014暑假档重要电影Upcoming Releases: Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27), Hercules (July 25), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (August 8) ．经典科幻动作必卖系列「变形金刚4：绝迹重生」 ．巨石强森古装动作片「海克力士」 ．麦克贝监制超级英雄冒险喜剧「忍者龟：变种世代」 分析 Analysis: Paramount has had a slow year so far. Noah's $100 million is a bit below expectations, while Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones underperformed in January. 派拉蒙今年的起步有点缓慢。挪亚方舟虽然最终还是破亿，但其花费的时间有点比想像中 久。「杰克莱恩：诡影任务」与「鬼入镜：诅咒」更是在一月档期出师不利的商业失败之 作 Paramount doesn't enter the Summer fray until late June, though it goes without saying that Transformers: Age of Extinction is going to be huge. Their other releases, Hercules and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, are harder to predict. Still, assuming Transformers reaches $300 million and the other two combine for $250 million—both optimistic predictions—Paramount will still be short of $1 billion going in to the Fall. 派拉蒙一直到六月才会加入今年暑假档期的战场。当然，变形金刚4不用说也会成为超卖 座大片，不过其他两部片「海克力士」与忍者龟就有点不容易去预测了。然而，即使乐 观预测变形4能顺利突破三亿，而其他两部片也能一共带来2.5亿的票房收入，派拉蒙还 是没办法在入秋时把今年的业绩扩张到10亿。 Odds: 3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 心得：派拉蒙好惨，假如不要把梦工厂动画切割，公司的气势不知道会不会好一点？ 另外，福斯低潮了不少年，如今终於有机会来个彻底的咸鱼翻身？ 文章的最後顺便附上Ray Subers预测今年暑假档美国十大卖座电影， 有空的话我也会对这篇文章作更详细的翻译 http://bit.ly/1kaLQrY 1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 2. X-Men: Days of Future Past 3. Transformers: Age of Extinction 4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 5. Godzilla 6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 7. Guardians of the Galaxy 8. Maleficent 9. Neighbors 10.22 Jump Street 顺道一提，Ray Subers预测今年暑假美国破两亿的电影会有6部 --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: sampsonlu919 (36.225.0.73), 06/02/2014 12:34:16