※ [本文转录自 NBA 看板] 作者: bri (.....................) 看板: NBA 标题: [讨论] Research: Young Players Seeing More Playoff Minutes 时间: Wed Apr 30 21:32:12 2008 配合最佳新秀出炉，翻篇应景的研究： http://0rz.tw/433XL Research: Young Players Seeing More Playoff Minutes ESPN TrueHoop by Henry Abbott 研究：年轻球员在季後赛有更多上场时间 I have been writing plenty about youth in these playoffs. 我写了很多关於年轻人在季後赛的文章。 Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Carl Landry, Rajon Rondo, Julian Wright, Al Horford ... there have been so many young players playing well. Chris Paul、Deron Williams、Dwight Howard、Carl Landry、Rajon Rondo、Julian Wright、Al Horford，有这麽多年轻人都打的很好。 Reigning king of the stat geeks, Justin Kubatko, who runs Basketball-Reference .com, was nice enough to test my theory against his vast database. 数据怪胎之王Justin Kubatko，Basketball-Reference.com的运作者，很好心地用他巨 大的资料库测设了一下我的理论。 And what he found was very interesting. I posted the whole table after the jump. 他发现的事非常有趣。我会在最後贴上整个表格。(译注：请见文末连结) He first looked at what percentage of a team's total minutes were played by a player who was 23 or younger (his database takes every players birthday on February 1 and assigns that age to them all season). The real news here is that this number is trending way up. In 1996, about 6% of minutes were played by youngsters. It barely passed 10% all through the 1990s. 他首先看看一支球队的总上场时数中，年龄23岁以下的球员占了多少百分比 (他的资料 库把每个球员的生日都设成2月1日，然後球员整季都以这个年龄计算) 。真正的新闻是 这个数字有向上走的趋势。在1996年，年轻球员大约打了大约6%的时间。整个1990年代 ，这个数字勉强超过10%。 In this year's playoffs so far, players 23 or younger are playing 21% of the minutes. 到了今年的季後赛，到现在为止，23岁以下的球员打了21%的上场时间。 Now, you might say that number will come down as the younger teams get kicked out of the playoffs. And that could happen. But even last year -- a playoffs won by the aging San Antonio Spurs -- the number was 18%, the highest it had been since 1980. 现在，你可以说这个数字会慢慢下降，因为比较年轻的球队会慢慢被踢出季後赛。这的 确可能发生。但是即使在去年—由年纪比较大的圣安东尼奥马刺队赢得冠军—这个数字 是18%，是1980年以来的最高点。 You could also say that this year there have been some blowouts, which might mean more garbage time than normal -- and hence more playing time for youngsters. That could be a factor. 你可以说今年有比较多惨败的比赛，可能代表比平常多的多垃圾时间–所以比较多年轻 人的时间。这也可能是因素之一。 If this year's 21% number holds up, it will be the third-highest in the history of the league. Even if it slips somewhat, it will be indicative of some serious growth in recent years. (And if some young teams make it deep into the playoffs, the number could, in theory, go up.) 如果今年的 21%数字持续如此，会是联盟历史上的第三高。即使它往下滑落，也会是这 几年一些重要成长的指标。 (如果一些年轻的球队持续深入季後赛，理论上这个数字会 往上升) What's this trend about? 这个趋势有什麽含义呢？ David Thorpe's theory is that the new hand-checking rules have made this, more than ever, a fast player's game. "Quickness," Thorpe says, "is a difference maker. It used to be that if you were a veteran guarding a younger, quicker player, you could just grab the guy. Now, you can't do that anymore, and the quick players are killing people." David Thorpe的理论是，新的碰触打手规定造成，超过以往，一个快速的比赛。”速度 ，造就了不同”Thorpe说”过去如果你是个老球员防守一个年轻、快速的球员，你可以 就抓住他。现在你不能这样作了，快速的球员会宰掉其他人。” Kubatko also did a quick and dirty assessment of how much these young players are contributing with their minutes. He assessed points plus one-half rebounds plus one-half assists, explaining "how 'value' is measured isn't that important (as long as it's reasonable), as we're looking at player's in the aggregate rather than making player-to-player comparisons." Kubatko 也针对这些年轻球员对於他们上场时间的贡献，作了一个简单的评估。他用得 分加上1/2的篮板加上1/2的助攻，他的解释是”价值要如何衡量不是那麽重要 (只要合 理)，所以我们只看球员的总合表现，而不是针对球员间来比较。” On that front, young players in most years contribute even slightly more than their minutes would suggest, and that trend holds true this time around; in their 21% of the minutes, young players are producing 23% of the stats (by this crude measure). 在这个理论下，大多数时候，年轻球员的贡献甚至稍稍比他们的时间多一点，而这个趋 势现在也是如此，在21%的上场时间内，年轻球员贡献了23%的数据 (依照这个简略的评量) UPDATE: TrueHoop reader John writes: "The most interesting aspect of the basketball reference post was the only other time the % of younger players and % value compared to today's numbers was in the late 1970's, early 1980's. Most argue that the 1980's was the golden age of NBA basketball, and this was preceded by this high percentage of younger players in the playoffs. Could this be a sign that the next 7-8 years of NBA basketball could be setup very well with a great crop of young talent? I think it has to be." 更新：TrueHoop读者John写道”这个调查最有趣的面向是，历史上唯一有现在年轻人这 种上场时间百分比和价值百分比的时期，是1970末期，1980前期。大多数人说1980年代 是 NBA篮球的黄金年代，而这个高比率的年轻球员是它的前兆。这可能是接下来七、八 年NBA会因为这群年轻天份的成熟，而运作的非常好的徵兆吗？我认为这一定是。” 数据及图表见如下网址： http://0rz.tw/f73Xd --

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