作者Romulus (Säubern Mode)
看板Sabermetrics
标题Re: [问题] WPA
时间Thu Oct 5 00:40:52 2006
刚刚去翻了那串，照Yaz的逻辑：
3-run burst in 1st inning:
0.697→0.817 0.120
comeback walkoff:
0.085→1.000 0.915
所以後者价值是前者的762.5％，相当於7.6只第一局干炮
那我们来看15场比赛，Set A是15只第一局干，Set B是2只walkoff+13场两者都没有
Set A
Win 12.255 in 15 games
Set B
Win 11.061 in 15 games
这根本不对嘛 囧
==
逆推的话会算出「这种特定情况下」「胜场价值」大约是200％强这样
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