※ 引述《Romulus (Säubern Mode)》之铭言： : 刚刚翻网页时看到这个，有人说用WPA来看Ortiz「巨幅」领先其他人（@8/13） : ，不只是Jeter，更包括Manny。 : 可是他内文解释的WPA理论我相当无法认同和理解，请问有人对WPA有研究的吗？ Like Win Shares, WPA is not a good predictive statistic because it's not necessarily a good representation of a player's true talent. If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game. The talent is the ability to hit the home run; when it happens in a game is something that is pretty random. When you are thinking of acquiring a player for your fantasy team, you should rely more on the traditional sabermetric stats, like Linear Weights, Runs Created, DIPS, etc. etc http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/ 另外一篇 WPA Curiosities I logged today’s A’s-Twins game in my WPA spreadsheet and found some curious things. Frank Thomas was voted the Game MVP (rightfully, in my opinion), but he actually finished third on the A’s in WPA, behind Zito and Street. Thomas’s home runs occurred in less critical situations: the second inning, when the LI was just 0.89, and in the ninth with the A’s up 2-1 (LI of 0.70), so the WPA of each home run was just under .10 in both cases. There were several bigger hits in the game, including Scutaro’s double in the second (.103) and Jason Bartlett’s double in the eighth with none out and the Twins down by a run (.166). Also, the flyball that Milton Bradley lost in the Metrodome roof was worth .166 WPA, too. Those were the two biggest plays of the game. So Frank Thomas, who homered for two of the A’s three runs, didn’t lead the team in WPA and didn’t even have the biggest hits of the game. Go figure. -- WPA的瑕疵还蛮多的 --

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