作者morleyhuang (好奇宝宝)
看板Sabermetrics
标题[心得]Baseball Between the Numbers (一)
时间Wed Apr 5 12:55:24 2006
Baseball Prospectus 2006最新力作『Baseball Between the
Numbers』,果然是好物。深入浅出的介绍了29个主题,含括了主要
领域的最新进展,以下是所探讨的29问题:
Batting Practice : Is barry Bonds Better Than Babe Ruth?
使用EqA(Equivalent Average),DT(Davenport Translation),将打
者成绩随年代和联盟竞争强度作调整,用BRAR(Batting Runs Above
Replacement),(Fielding Runs Above Replacement),PRAR(
Picthing Runs Avove Replacement)计算球员的贡献
1-1 What's the Matter with RBI? and Other Traditional
Statistics
介绍EqA,VORP(Value Over Replacement Player),MLVr(Marginal
Lineup Value rate)
1-2 Is David Ortiz a Clutch Hitter?
使用由WinEX(Win Expectancy)所衍生的"Leverage",由MLVR(
Marginal Lineup Value Runs)所衍生的MLVW(Marginal Lineup Value
Wins),以及结合两者的LMLVW(Leveraged MLV Wins),来定义Clutch
,评估打者是否真的有所谓适时一击的能力
1-3 Was Billy Martin Crazy?
打序真的重要吗?真的需要下一棒次来保护强打者吗?用Run
Expectancy说明在什麽情况下保送强打者才是好策略(几乎在任何情
况下和打者对决都胜过保送他)
2-1 Why are Pitchers So Unpredictable?
介绍投手相关的数据:
Support Neutral statistics
PERA(Peripheral ERA)
DIPS(Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)
Component Pitching Rate
以这些数据来预测投手的表现,可靠度较高
2-2 Are Teams Letting Their Closers Go to Waste?
用Run Expentancy所衍生的ARP(Adjusted Run Prevented)来评估中继
救援投手的表现,用Leverage衡量胜负关键程度,并考量球队前後两天
的赛程,以决定使用王牌救援的最佳时机
2-3 Five Starters or Four? On Pitching and Stamina
介绍PAP(Pitcher abuse point),比较四先发投手轮值和五先发投手
轮值下,不同的休息天数对先发投手表现的影响(控制投球数比多给一
天的休息更重要)。
3-1 When Does a Pitcher Earn an Earn Run?
投手数据大全
3-2 Did Derek Jeter Deserve the Gold Glove?
介绍FRAR,Defensive Spectrum,防守成绩受其他防守球员影响的程度
3-3 Is Mike Matheny a Catching Genius?
试着从数据中找出捕手在防守上的贡献(嗯...目前的研究找不出数据
支持捕手好坏对防守有很大的差异)
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