http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox.html After a last place finish in 2012, a heralded offseason helped bring the Red Sox a World Series title in 2013. What can the Sox and GM Ben Cherington do for an encore this winter? Cherington如何再一次重演去年季後的成功？ Guaranteed Contracts　保障合约 Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $109MM through 2021 Shane Victorino, OF: $26MM through 2015 Clay Buchholz, SP: $19.945MM through 2015 John Lackey, SP: $15.25MM through 2014 David Ortiz, DH: $15MM through 2014 Jake Peavy, SP: $14.5MM through 2014 Ryan Dempster, SP: $13.25MM through 2014 Jon Lester, SP: $13MM through 2014 Jonny Gomes, OF: $5MM through 2014 Koji Uehara, RP: $4.25MM through 2014 Craig Breslow, RP: $3.925MM through 2014 David Ross, C: $3.1MM through 2014 Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)　具仲裁资格球员 Andrew Bailey, RP (5.000): $4.3MM projected salary (non-tender candidate) Andrew Miller, RP (5.062): $1.9MM Franklin Morales, RP (5.007): $1.8MM Mike Carp, LF (3.010): $1.3MM Junichi Tazawa, RP (3.086): $1.1MM Free Agents　自由球员 Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joel Hanrahan, John McDonald, Mike Napoli, Jarrod Saltalamacchia Other Payroll Obligations　 $3.9MM to Los Angeles Dodgers, as part of nine-player trade in August 2012 A winning strategy always draws imitators, and there's no doubt many clubs took note of how the Red Sox returned to prominence after eschewing big-ticket moves in favor of less-expensive and more measured free agent signings in the 2012-13 offseason. Adding the right mid-tier free agents can definitely help turn a 69-game winner into a World Series champion in one offseason --- just as long as you have the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz already on your roster and they all make big rebounds from down seasons. While the free agents, improved team chemistry, and addition of John Farrell as manager unquestionably helped, Boston's worst-to-first title run isn't as much a case of a bad team suddenly becoming great as it was a good team getting back on track after a Murphy's Law season in 2012. 成功的策略总是会让其他竞争者模仿， 可以预期有很多球队会学习去年红袜以数个中阶球员代替一个明星建队的模式 不过并不是每个分区垫底的球队都能突然变成冠军队， 红袜今年的成功也归功於他们原有核心的反弹 The strength of the Sox core is illustrated in their list of guaranteed contracts and the four arbitration-eligible players likely to be tendered contracts. Those 16 players account for just under $128MM in payroll and only three are guaranteed money beyond next season. This gives the Red Sox tons of flexibility in filling their few holes, whether it's re-signing some key players, taking on a big salary in a trade or making more forays into free agency. While their core is strong, the Sox aren't afraid to shake things up in order to make the roster even stronger over the long run. 在明年季後只剩下三张保障约，这给红袜很多补洞的弹性， 不管是重签现有的核心或经由交易吃下明星球员的大约甚至在自由球员的竞逐都是选项 即便核心球员很棒，也不排除为了长期的成功而在这个季後重新整理阵容 Let's start with Ellsbury, Boston's biggest internal free agent case. The Red Sox made at least two attempts to lock up their center fielder before he hit the open market, and now Ellsbury heads into free agency wearing another World Series ring and coming off a .298/.355/.426 season that included nine homers, 92 runs scored and a league-best 52 stolen bases. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranks Ellsbury second on his free agent power rankings and recently guessed that Ellsbury and agent Scott Boras could find a contract in the $150MM range. 在两次试图重签Ellsbury失败後他成为了自由球员， Tim　Dierkes预测他有可能拿到$150M以上的合约 If the bidding goes that high, Boston could be out, as the club is reportedly unwilling to greatly exceed the $100MM threshold for Ellsbury. I'd still consider the Red Sox as the favorites to sign Ellsbury but it wouldn't be the first time that Boras has scored an inflated contract for one of this clients. If a team (or teams) push the bidding past $125MM, expect Ellsbury to be playing in another team's uniform in 2014. It's not that Boston couldn't afford such a contract, but in the wake of the Carl Crawford deal, the Sox are wary about paying a speed-based player big dollars into his 30's. 红袜并不是负担不起他想要的大约，但在Crawford之後， 球队对给即将进入三十岁以速度见长的球员九位数字大约一事很有戒心 如果他的价码超过125M红袜应该会选择放手 If Ellsbury leaves, the Sox could give Jackie Bradley a chance at the center field job. Bradley (a consensus top-40 prospect in preseason rankings from MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law) has put up big minor league numbers and could join Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts as the latest homegrown prospects to step into the Boston lineup. Bradley could be used in a platoon to begin with, and the Sox could look for a right-handed hitting CF in the mold of a Rajai Davis or a Reed Johnson to add to the outfield depth chart. JBJ初期可能会以platoon的方式，跟Rajai Davis或Reed Johnson这类的右打一起顶CF Napoli has said he wants to return to Boston, and a reunion could happen if a three-year/$42MM contract is indeed Napoli's price. There have been rumors, however, that the club isn't keen on giving Napoli three guaranteed years and Boston's pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu could be a sign that the Sox are ready to move on from Napoli. Mike Carp dominated right-handed pitching in 2013, though his less-impressive career splits indicate that the Sox would probably prefer to keep Carp as a part-timer rather than a semi-everyday first baseman. Napoli说他想回来，不过红袜并不热衷於给他三年保障约 之前对古巴巨炮Jose Dariel Abreu的追求也表现出红袜可能不见得非他不可 Carp在今年屠杀右投，但他生涯都被左杀让红袜无法放心的拿他当全职1B First base is a relatively easy enough position to fill that the Sox might prefer the compensatory first round draft pick that they would receive if Napoli signs elsewhere. Stephen Drew, similarly, might not be as valuable to the Sox as a first-round pick, since the presence of Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on the left side of the infield makes Drew's return problematic (barring some position juggling). Since Drew will draw attention from several shortstop-needy teams, my guess is the Red Sox will move on. 一垒手相较之下容易找到替代品，让红袜可能宁可从拿胖身上拿到一个第一轮选秀 Drew的状况也一样，左半边可以交给中川跟XB，我猜测红袜不会留他 While Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew received qualifying offers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia did not. He could be re-signed but a slugging catcher who isn't tied to any draft pick compensation will surely draw a lot of attention from other teams, and another club could very well give him a four-year contract (Boston is reportedly willing to give "Salty" as many as three guaranteed years). The Red Sox are, however, a team that could be well-positioned to sign Brian McCann. Boston would have to surrender their first round draft pick (30th overall) to sign McCann but that's no big loss since the club could gain as many as three compensatory picks if Ellsbury, Napoli and/or Drew left. A five-year, $80MM contract would allow the Sox to install McCann behind the plate for a few seasons until Ryan Lavarnway, Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez emerges as a catcher of the future, and then McCann could become a DH...provided that the ageless Ortiz isn't still mashing, that is. Salty没收到QO，不用赔选秀的捕手炮将会吸引很多球队的注意 红袜最多愿意给他三年约，但可能会有缺捕手的球队出到第四年 或许Brian McCann是个好选择，虽然要赔第一轮选秀，但只是第三十顺位 从Ellsbury　Napoli　Drew的离开则可能拿回三个第一轮 五年$80M的约可以让McCann在红袜蹲几年等新秀上来後接老爹ＤＨ的位置 Elsewhere around the diamond, if Drew leaves, the Sox are a good bet to sign a veteran infielder who can play either third or shortstop if Bogaerts or Middlebrooks struggles. The Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon worked out well in left field and should continue, while it will be business as usual for the trio of Pedroia, Ortiz and Shane Victorino. It could be argued that Boston's offseason really began when they managed to lock up Pedroia to a below-market extension in July, a move that should aid the Sox payroll for the better part of the next decade. The team boasts strong rotation depth with Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster and younger arms like Brandon Workman, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa in reserve. If that wasn't enough, the Sox have checked in on free agent starter Tim Hudson, which would seem to hint that one or more of the current starters could be moved in a trade. The Red Sox could sell high on Lackey, or perhaps deal Peavy following his postseason struggles. Dempster would probably be the preferred candidate to deal given rough 2013 season, age (36) and $13.25MM salary. Boston could try to mine trade value from his durability and home/away splits to prove that Dempster could pitch better in a friendly environment than Fenway Park. 轮值很满，但红袜还是传出对Tim Hudson有兴趣 几个选项：逢高卖出发球机，在季後赛的挣扎後卖ＰＶ，但最可能的是找到蛋皮的下家 蛋皮的吃局数能力跟主客场差异可以说明他换个球场或许会更好 Lester would be an even bigger trade chip if the Sox wanted to really make a splash, and we know that Lester was shopped to the Royals last offseason following his disappointing 2012 campaign. While Lester could bring back a huge return, it's more likely that the Red Sox will look to extend the southpaw given his return to form in 2013 with a strong regular season and outstanding playoff run. No talks have yet taken place about another multiyear extension, though the Sox already made the easy call of picking up Lester's 2014 option. Lester比上面几个更有价值，但在这个季後赛的鬼神表现後，红袜应该会想跟他签长约 Koji Uehara easily passed the 55-game plateau that caused his 2014 option to vest, and his emergence as a lockdown closer makes his $4.5MM salary for next season seem like a bargain. Uehara's dominance solved a lot of problems in the Sox bullpen though there will be holes to fill as Andrew Bailey will likely be non-tendered and Matt Thornton's option has already been declined. Joel Hanrahan could be re-signed to a low-cost deal since the former closer missed almost all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. 上原今年史诗级的表现帮红袜的牛棚掩盖了很多问题， Bailey可能被non-tendered，必须找个新的set-up Hanrahan则可能低价签回来当乐透 Between a surprise World Series win, their talented veteran core and the minor league system with the best short-term potential of any in baseball, these are heady times for the Red Sox. It's probably too much to expect everything to again work out for the franchise in 2014, just as it was pessimistic to presume that things would continue to spiral downward following the disastrous 2012 season. If the team does even as half as good a job filling their holes as they did last winter, however, expect more postseason action at Fenway Park. 虽然很难再重新今年的惊奇，但看看红袜的核心跟丰沛的农场， 他们在未来几年应该都还是很有竞争力的季後赛球队 --

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