Red Sox Replace Carl Crawford with Polar Opposite╴╴╴ by Dave Cameron - November 21, 2012 http://0rz.tw/8EN6q After years of having Manny Ramirez and then Jason Bay patrol left field in front of the Green Monster, the Red Sox made a dramatic change in course in 2011 by bringing in Carl Crawford. Instead of using the position to get another bat-first, hide-the-women-and-children defender into the line-up, the Sox opted for speed and defense instead. Crawford, of course, was a disaster, and the Red Sox took advantage of an opportunity to rid themselves of the remainder of his contract by shipping him to Los Angeles in August. 红袜以前使用Manny Ramirez和Jason Bay镇守绿色怪物前方─直到2011年球季才改变方针 使用尻佛，从使用守备烂的强打者变成快腿防守者。但尻佛是一场噩梦，好不容易在2012 年八月找到机会排毒。 With their new found savings creating a hole in left field, the Red Sox have reportedly decided to go back to the old left field plan, and are nearing a two year contract with right handed slugger Jonny Gomes. Given that they already re-signed David Ortiz, DH is not open in Boston, so Gomes’ playing time is going to have to come in left field. And that makes this signing pretty interesting. 节省支出之下造就了左外野的空缺，而日前红袜决定使用老计画，用两年约签下右打大棒 Jonny Gomes。 而红袜已经签下老爹，DH这个位置娜不出来，所以势必要让Gomes镇守左外野─这让整件 事情变的很有趣。 Because he spent 2009-2011 in the National League — 2 1/2 years with the Reds, half a season as a National — he’s played a decent amount of outfield during his career. However, he’s never been a regular OF in the American League, because AL teams have the ability to DH guys like Gomes, and both of his previous AL employers have taken advantage of that option. 因为Gomes在2009-2011年间都在国联(1.5年在红人，0.5年在国民)，所以守外野的经历 不算少。不过，他在美联从没当过固定的外野手，因为美联球队可以他能来当DH使用。 先前的两支美联母队都这麽做。 With Tampa Bay from 2003-2008, he made 227 of his 354 starts — 64% — at DH. Last year with the A’s, he started 46 of 74 games — 62% — at DH. In five full seasons in the AL, Gomes has never started more than 50 games in the outfield in a single year. Even in the NL, when the DH wasn’t an option, Gomes only averaged 88 starts per year in the outfield. Put simply, no one has ever looked at Jonny Gomes as a regular option in the OF, because, frankly, he’s terrible out there. 在光芒(魔鬼鱼)的2003-2008年间，354场先发中有227场(64%)当DH；去年在绿帽的74场先 发中则有46场(72%)打DH。在美联的五个完整出赛球季中，先发守外野单季都不超过50场。 就算在国联，Gomes也只有88%的场次担任先发外野手。简单来说，没人将Gomes视为正规 的外野手，因为他的防守很糟。 In 3,500 career innings in the outfield, he’s posted a UZR of -37, which translates out to -13 runs per full season. DRS rates him even worse, coming in at -50, as does Sean Smith‘s Total Zone. Gomes is basically as bad as an outfielder can possibly be while still being considered a passable part-time player at the position. 生涯守外野的3500局，UZR是糟糕的-37，每季多掉13分。DRS(defensive runs saved)更 糟，-50。Gomes的守备几乎到达外野手最糟的程度，但拿来当兼差的外野手的话还OK。 Defensively, Gomes is basically Manny Ramirez. But, of course, the Red Sox have already seen Manny Ramirez play left field in Fenway Park, and while it was painful to watch, they also won a couple of World Series titles with him in left field. Bad outfield defense isn’t, in and of itself, a deal breaker, and there’s an argument to be made that sticking a horrendous defender in front of the Green Monster allows you to hide his deficiencies, since the proximity of the wall to the plate means that there’s just less ground to cover. 防守方面Gomes跟Manny Ramirez差不多。当然大家都看过Manny守左外野的样子，虽然 看了很痛苦，但还是照拿两个冠军。糟糕的外野防守并不是阻碍这笔交易的最大重点， 而且有些人认为绿色怪物可以保护糟糕防守者的缺点，因为要守的范围变小。 With a two year deal for Gomes, the Red Sox are set to test that theory once again. While he’s almost certainly not going to be an everyday player for Boston, he had enough leverage as a free agent to ensure that he’s going to be in the mix for fairly regular playing time, perhaps in some kind of 50/50 job share with Ryan Kalish if the Sox go on to acquire a full-time right fielder later in the off-season. Or, if not with Kalish, some other left-handed outfielder, because there’s no real way the Sox can view Gomes as a regular against right-handed pitching. 接下来的两年红袜打算使用以上的理论。虽然几乎确定他不会每天都先发，但他将有很大 机会争取固定的上场时间─如果红袜买下一位全职RF，Gomes可能会和Kalish平分上场时 间。就算不是Kalish，也会有一位左打用来对决右投─因为没办法整季都用Gomes打右投。 Here are Gomes’ career splits: 以下是数据： Vs PA BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ LHP 1,100 0.284 0.382 0.512 0.385 140 RHP 1,962 0.222 0.307 0.424 0.318 93 If there’s such a thing as a lefty masher, it’s Jonny Gomes. The sample sizes with platoon splits aren’t large enough where you should just take the un-regressed numbers at face value, but even regressing them 50% back towards league average, you’re still left with something like a .360/.330 split. And, given how bad Gomes is defensively, a .330 wOBA against right-handers makes him essentially a replacement level outfielder against right-handers. 如果要打左投，当然是Gomes。或许样本数不够多，应该看未经过回归分析的数字，但就 算用回归分析过後，wOBA还是会得出差距相当大的.360/.330。因为他的防守很差，而且 对决右投只有.330 wOBA─这让他对决右投时会变成路人等级的外野手。 Gomes can thump lefties well enough to be valuable in the 150 to 200 plate appearances per year he can rack up against them, but against righties, there ’s not much of a benefit to having him in the line-up. Realistically, he’s best served as a pinch-hitter coming off the bench for when the right-handed starter is replaced by a left-handed reliever, but it seems unlikely that Gomes secured a two year deal from Boston to be a bench player on days a right-hander takes the mound, which is about 75% of the time in Major League Baseball. Gomes棒打左投的能力在150~200PA中足以显现价值，但是对右投的话，Gomes在打线中没 有多少价值。所以对方是右投先发的话他适合当板凳球员，拿来打左手牛，但是这两年约 并不像是要拿来买一位打右投时蹲板凳的球员─大概会有75%的比赛会对到先发右投。 So, given the fact that Gomes signed with Boston and got a two year deal, I think we have to assume he’s going to get some starts against right-handers, and because of Ortiz’s presence, he’s going to get those starts in left field. And that brings us back to the question of whether the Green Monster can really hide the defensive deficiencies of a guy who can’t run. There is no question that it’s a smaller area in terms of square footage than most left fields, but there’s still an equal amount of lateral distance between the left fielder and center fielder in Boston as there is in any other stadium in America. The Monster might reduce the amount of times Gomes has to charge forward on a blooper since he doesn’t have to worry about as many balls being hit over his head, but he still has to run side to side to get balls down the line or in the gap. Less space doesn’t equal no space. 因为Gomes已经签下去了，两年约，所以我们假设他会面对先发右投；而且因为老爹的关 系，他得站左外野。这又回到绿色怪物能不能保护一位跑不起来的外野手─的确守备面积 变小，但是横向距离跟中外野差不多─或许能减少球飞过头顶的疑虑，但是会增加球落在 左中外野间的机会。小面积不代表不用守备。 And, of course, the Red Sox play 81 games on the road. We can’t simply take a -15 defender, put him in Boston, and assume he’s suddenly going to be league average. It’s possible that he might be a bit less harmful in home games, but we’re probably talking about an adjustment from -15 to -10. And that’s assuming that Gomes hasn’t gotten worse with age. 还有，我们有81场客场。我们不能假设这位-15等级的防守者突然变成联盟水准─或许明 年能因为主场的关系上修到-10，可以减轻伤害。也或许我们少考虑了年龄的因素。 Maybe when the terms of the deal come out, we’ll find out that Gomes only got a few million dollars and agreed to a job as a platoon player because he just really likes New England and wanted to be closer to the intellectuals at Harvard and MIT. It’s Jonny Gomes, though, so I’ll file that as unlikely. If the Red Sox signed him to be a fairly regular left fielder, my guess is this isn’t going to work out so great. (本文时在签约金出来前写的，前半段主旨是说不定他拿很少钱，然後喜欢NE地区才过来) (虽然不大可能) 如果红袜要让Gomes当固定先发左外野手，我认为效果没那麽好。 It’s one thing to live with lousy defense when you’re getting Manny Ramirez ’s bat into the line-up. It’s another thing to make that trade-off to get Jonny Gomes’ bat in the line-up. Gomes is a nice role player and a useful part-time hitter against southpaws, but asking him to be more than that looks like an overextension of his skills. We’ll have to wait and see how he ends up fitting into the Red Sox final roster, but let’s just say that I’m not convinced that the Sox have really replaced Carl Crawford just yet. 如果棒子跟Manny Ramirez一样猛的话，防守烂还勉强接受；但是Gomes不一样，他是个很 好的角色型球员，是个能对抗左投的优良兼差型打者─除此之外难以要求什麽更多的技巧 。我们在往後才能知道红袜的阵容如何，但截至目前为止我不认为红袜找到填补尻佛位置 的球员。 -- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD." --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.20.246 感谢更正~ ※ 编辑: tanaka0826 来自: 122.117.20.246 (11/24 00:13)