※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之铭言： : 标题: 2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW : 时间: Wed Feb 4 21:34:03 2009 续上篇 : : #4-Andy Sonnanstine: 193.3IP, 9.9H/9, 5.8K/9, 3.4K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, : 1.288WHIP, 102ERA+ : : Sonnanstine is actually a pretty sweet pitcher when you look at his skill : set. He's got great command and doesn't give up many bombs, but he doesn't : strike a ton of hitters out so the upside is limited. That H/9IP would look : better but his BABIP was .312 which was above league average. The big problem : is that Sonnanstine is relying completely on his guile. His average fastball : sat at 87mph last season, which coming from a righty is well below average. : He throws up to 5 pitches for strikes, but I don't know. A few more : strikeouts, a few more groundballs and who know what can happen? With Price : in the mix, Sonnanstine is nothing more than a #4-#5 starter, but when you : can get 200IP out of guy that is going to keep you in games because he : doesn't walk anyone then that's a great asset to have in your rotation. : Sonnanstine will only be 26-years old this season so there is certainly time. : 老实说Andy不是个很好的投手，控球不错 HR/9也还好，不过低三振率表示他的高点也 不会很高。明年H/9会稍微改善但那是因为有点过高的Babip，问题在於他是个软投派的 投手，平均速度只有87mph的直球远远低於联盟，所以能倚靠的仅仅只有巧妙的配球。 好坏球比也不漂亮…好吧，如果能多投点三振，多一点滚地球或许能吓你一跳也不一定。 有Price在轮值，Andy充其量是个4、5号先发，不过队上有个四坏率低又能吃200IP的 先发也不坏。今季他只有26岁，ya He still has time. : : #5-David Price: 14IP, 5.8H/9, 7.7K/9, 3.0K:BB, 2.6BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 0.929WHIP, : 230ERA+ : : Here comes the ringer! Before we get ga-ga over those numbers, remember that : Price's BABIP in those 14IP was a ridiculous .225. Price works off a : fastball-slider-changeup arsenal although he barely used his change in the : majors last season. He pumps his fastball at 94-95mph as a lefty and in : reality it might only be a matter of time before he is the #1 starter, : relegating Scott Kazmir to #2 status. It's a good problem to have if you are : Tampa Bay. There really isn't a knock on Price at this point. He's a good kid : from Vanderbilt with tremendous makeup. He blew through the SEC and he blew : through the minor leagues on his way to Tampa Bay. He's a 6-6 lefty who : throws in the mid-90s with great control of all his pitches. Price even : pitched in the ALCS and World Series where he did a great job. He had a rough : spot in Game 2 of the World Series but the Rays were up 4-0 in that game and : the 2 runs Price gave up were inconsequential. In postseason play he allowed : just 2 hits and struckout 8 batters in 5.7IP! The only real knock for this : guy is going to be his durability and health. He only threw about 130IP last : season and 110 of those were in the minor leagues. Expecting 30+ starts from : him and 180-200IP might be too much too soon for the guy. : 数据很不错，不过既是小样本(14IP)又是超低的babip(.225)，所以看看就好。他投三 种球种: fastball-slider-changeup，但control不好的changeup在mlb几乎没用到。 左 投有94-95mph的fastball（按:先发时是90-94）代表假如时日注定会把Kaz挤到#2的位置 ，但对真正的光芒迷来说将是快乐的烦恼。 身高6-6左投加上精准的mid-90s fastball，这个Vanderbilt来的天才小子没甚麽真正的 问题，在大学、小联盟甚至WS都有不错的表现。唯一缺点是他的健康和耐力都需要注意 : 去年包括在小联盟投的110IP总共只投了130IP(按:他07年没赶上球季，所以在职棒就只有 这一年 )，假如今年就期望看到他30+先发和180-200IP也许是太过梦想了。 : : SP-Jason Hammel: 78.3IP, 9.5H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.3K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 1.3HR/9, : 1.506WHIP, 97ERA+ : SP-Jeff Niemann: 16IP, 10.1H/9, 7.9K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.7HR/9, 1.625WHIP, : 88ERA+ : : : OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE RAYS ROTATION? : : It's simply another dominating starting rotation in the AL East. The one : thing that bothers me just a bit is that the Rays really don't have a #1 : starter. Kazmir is certainly a #1 starter in "stuff", but his durability is : always going to be a factor it seems. If he can go 200+IP then this argument : becomes a non-issue but if there is a knock on this rotation, it's that they : don't have a real stopper at the top. They have some candidates in Kazmir, : Price and even Garza; all have the goods to be a #1, but I think Garza & : Price are still a bit too young and Kazmir dealt with injury problems yet : again. 就很棒的先发轮值~ 唯一缺憾是缺少了一个真正的#1 starter,　Kaz有#1的stuff但缺少 #1 的吃局数能力。除非Kaz今年能吃200+IP证明并不是那回事，否则光芒少了一张王牌始 终是事实。Kaz、Price甚至Garza都有能力做#1，但可惜前一个有伤而後两个又有点太年 轻了。 : : Best case is that this rotation dominates because it simply has too much : talent not too. Worst case is that Kazmir has injury issues and Price goes : about 120IP. That would be tough because you'd have a lot of the : responsibilities thrust upon Shields, Sonnanstine and Garza with a couple of : fill ins. I'm not sure Hammel & Niemann are going to be great and Wade Davis : and Jake McGee probably aren't ready just yet. 明年的Best case是先发们实实在在地宰制美东；而worst case是Kaz受伤痛影响而Price 只吃了大约120IP，那样的话会为剩下的Shields、Andy、Garza和替补带来很大的压力。 後备的Hammel和Niemann会投成怎样还不确定，而 Wade Davis和Jake McGee看起来则是还 未准备好。 : Another factor to consider is : how much better the rest of the AL East got in relation to Tampa Bay. The : Yankees got CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett and also get a healthy Chien-Ming Wang : back in 2009 with Joba Chamberlain at least starting the season healthy. : Those are 4 starters the Rays didn't have to compete with last season. The : Red Sox signed Brad Penny & John Smoltz while also having Clay Buchholz & : Michael Bowden waiting to make an impact. Those are 4 pitchers Tampa didn't : face last season either. : : Don't get me wrong. This is a great rotation to have, but there are some : questions marks that should possibly be concerning for the Rays down the : road. If this was any other division in baseball, it wouldn't really matter, : but because Tampa plays in the same division as the Yankees & Red Sox, it : changes things dramatically when trying to stay and keep being competitive. : 另一个因素的是美东其他劲旅，洋基季後签下的CC & AJ Burnett 还有健康的Wang + Joba，红袜方面的Penny & Smoltz加上八扣子和Michael Bowden， 全部是都是小鱼昨年没有对上的投手。光芒的轮值的确是很好，和其他分区比较也是 首屈一指，可是当身在美东军火库， 即使一点点小问题都可能会造成很大影响。 : : 2009 RAYS BULLPEN : : CL-Troy Percival: 45.7IP, 5.7H/9, 7.5K/9, 1.4K:BB, 5.3BB/9, 1.8HR/9, : 1.226WHIP, 98ERA+ : RP-Dan Wheeler: 66.3IP, 6.0H/9, 7.2K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 0.995WHIP, : 142ERA+ : LP-J.P. Howell: 89.3IP, 6.2H/9, 9.3K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.131WHIP, : 200ERA+ : RP-Grant Balfour: 58.3IP, 4.3H/9, 12.7K/9, 3.4K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 0.891WHIP, 288ERA+ : RP-Chad Bradford: 59.3IP, 9.0H/9, 2.6K/9, 1.1K:BB, 2.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 1.247WHIP, 212ERA+ : RP-Joe Nelson: 54IP, 7.0H/9, 10.0K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.185WHIP, : 213ERA+ : RP-Juan Salas: 6.3IP, 7.1H/9, 11.4K/9, 2.0K:BB, 5.7BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 1.421WHIP, : 63ERA+ : RP-Lance Cormier: 71.7IP, 9.8H/9, 5.8K/9, 1.4K:BB, 4.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 1.563WHIP, 113ERA+ : LP-Brian Shouse: 51.3IP, 8.1H/9, 5.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 2.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9, : 1.169WHIP, 153ERA+ : : According to The Hardball Times's WPA (Wins Probability Added), the Rays had : the best bullpen in the majors last season. They bring back the same pen : although they've added guys like Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier and Brian Shouse : to the mix. All are good pick-ups but it creates a log jam in the pen. The : closer, Troy Percival, is the worst reliever on the team! How can a guy who : gives up 2 bombs per 9IP and walks 5 per 9IP hold down a closer's job? It : would seem putting in Percival is pouring gas on an already raging fire! 根据TBT的WPA，去年小鱼有着全联盟最好的牛棚。新一季除了去年的原班人马外，还签下 了Joe Nelson、Lance Cormier、Brian Shouse，令本来已经一流的牛棚更爆炸了 (按:能 用的已经有13人了)。本来的Closer Troy Percival看成绩反而是最糟糕的後援　囧 找一个每9局5BB 2HR的投手顶closer似乎不是很明智的决定。 : : When you think about the pen, you know that Howell, Bradford, Balfour, : Wheeler and Nelson are automatic. That leaves only 2 spots. One is going to : Percival when he's healthy because he's the closer leaving only one which I'm : guessing goes to Shouse because he's left handed and JP Howell owns both : righties and lefties. That leaves both Salas and Cormier out in the cold but : it also doesn't allow room for a guy like Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann to be : a long man out of the pen in preparation for spot starts when the Rays will : need them. 在开季的25人名单， 没人质疑Howell, Bradford, Balfour, Wheeler, Nelson 5人将会是我们主力的RP群， Closer Percy有机会留下，牛棚最後一个位子可能会给左投Shouse; 这代表没进的人有 Salas、Cormier，也没有机会让能替补先发的Hammel和Niemann准备。 (按: 两位替补先发都out of options了，能过waivers的机会看起来不大) : : Even so this is a NASTY pen. Howell & Balfour and downright FILTHY. Wheeler & : Nelson are very solid if not as brutal on opposing hitters as Balfour & : Howell. That leaves Chad Bradford who is effective in his own right along : with LOOGY Brian Shouse. The closer's spot is Percival's but in all reality : the big guy is going to be on the DL a bit so the closer's role probably : falls to Dan Wheeler in that instance. Wheeler had 13 saves last season in : Percival's absence. 尽管如此这仍然是一个超强力的牛棚。有超强力的Howell 和 Balfour，还有相当有实力 的Wheeler和Nelson，一人左Shouse和潜水艇Bradford，Closer暂时仍然是容易受伤的 Percy，进DL後大概会交给Wheeler关门。 : : This is a great bullpen. The log jam creates quite a bit of depth with : Cormier, Salas and Hammel ready to step in when needed. Still, I don't see : how this pen doesn't shorten games to at least 6IP or even possibly 5IP to be : honest. There isn't a weak link except for Percival and if the game is on the : line I don't mind putting anyone in there except for maybe Shouse becasue if : the game is on the line with a lefty up, I'd rather have JP Howell facing : them down than Shouse. That's 6 pitchers you can put into high leverage : situations at any time. Good grief that's awesome! : 牛棚爆炸令深度大增，想凭这群RP在6局甚至5局就冻结比赛也不是不可能。除了Percy有 点抖，每一位投手都能独当一面，关键的时候随便推哪个出来也没所谓。except for Shouse, 即使接下来全都是左打，我觉得让J.P. Howell上也比Shouse安心。有6个强 力後援在，没在怕啦 : : : OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 RAYS : : The AL East is simply going to be a blood bath. I can't believe I'm saying : this but I'm predicting that the Rays will finish in 3rd place in the AL East : for 2009. That they'll win 90-games in my opinion is a no-brainer. Hell, if : they won 93-94 games it still might only be good enough for 3rd place in the : East. I think the Rays will score runs and I think they'll do a great job at : preventing runs, but so goes for the Yankees & Red Sox too. One thing that : really helped Tampa along in 2008 was New York being horribly down and the : Red Sox running into some bad luck without having Josh Beckett healthy for : almost the entire season. At this point both New York & Boston look ready to : go and Tampa won't have that ace up their sleeve in 2009. They'll be an : excellent baseball team and in reality right now they probably are one of the : top-5 teams in the majors, but the problem is that 2 other teams in that : top-5 play in the same division as Tampa Bay! Third place! Wow. 美东战区会有一番血战是肯定的了，说出来或许会被打，不过大概Rays会拿90胜以上而最 後名列第三吧，老实说在美东拿93-94可能也只能第三。Rays在得分和防守会表现很好， 不过洋基红袜也不是盖的。08年小鱼传奇是靠着天时地利人和，09年要应付两队的完整阵 容，又少了一个王牌压场，长成的小鱼明年大概会是联盟Top 5 teams的其中一队吧， 只是………………… → immortalqq :全MLB前五强有前三强在美东 囧 Third place! Wow. -- 终於翻译完了，累死我了 (／‵Д′)／~ ╧╧ 到後面一整个乱翻 囧 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 137.189.99.122 ※ 编辑: catsondbs 来自: 137.189.99.122 (02/05 22:13)