45 FV Prospects 5. Michael Taylor, CF : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx2WcwMUAEk&feature=youtu.be&t=1m2s Taylor is easy to like as the 6’3/210 athlete can make a big first impression: plus raw power and speed and good defensive instincts to go with an above average arm. He’s also already reached the big leagues, but the 23-year-old really struggled in his 43 plate appearances in September. That’s the crux of what scouts worry about with Taylor: he has good bat speed but will probably always have contact issues. Taylor chases the slider off the plate, doesn’t have a great grasp of the strike zone and finds himself off-balance with poor timing at the plate, with mechanical and plate discipline problems that can feed off each other. He’s so talented that he needs to be in the big leagues to be challenged enough to make adjustments, but many top prospects with this profile never figure it out. 像Taylor这样六尺三寸210 磅充满运动能力的家伙，很容易给人巨大的第一印象： raw power、speed都是plus，很棒的防守直觉，超越平均的arm 。已经上过大联盟但23岁的 他在九月43个打席中确实很挣扎，这也是球探们担心的症结点。他有很棒的挥棒速度但 可能将永远伴随着contact 麻烦；会追打掉到外面的slider，好球带控制不良，也会被 打乱出棒节奏。如能改进打击机制与本垒板纪律就能改善上述任何一种问题。他充满天 分但需要在大联盟接受更多挑战来做出调整，只是许多遇到一样难关的顶级新秀始终无 法克服困境。 Taylor has his share of good hitting characteristics, as his power is to all fields and his big league homer was to the opposite field. He’s also made adjustments/improvements at the plate, particularly last year, and is still relatively young, so there’s some thought Taylor needs to face an extended big league challenge to make the leap. That said, a contending team may not have the patience to wait for that to happen. It’s also worth noting that some are very high on Taylor’s defense: one Nats official said he’s behind only Span in the org in terms of center field defense, playing shallow and covering lots of ground. Drew Stubbs has been tossed around as a reasonable comp and the speed, defense and raw power mean Taylor could even be terrible contact-wise and still a good backup outfielder. Taylor从不隐藏他优秀的打击特质，像能将球打往任何方向的power ，他在大联盟的首 轰也是往反方向开炮。看管好球带这部分也做过调整改进，特别是去年；而且他还年轻 ，还需要更多面对大联盟投手的机会来跨越鸿沟，尽管一支充满竞争力的队伍可能没耐 心等待。值得注意的是Taylor在防守面获得某些非常高的评价，一位国民内部人士指出 他在球团系统里的中外野防守只落後Span；范围非常大也能处理浅飞球。 Drew Stubbs 是合理的比较对象，从speed、防守能力与raw power来看Taylor就算可能变成更糟糕的 人体风扇也依然还是很棒的替补外野手。 6. A.J. Cole, RHP : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPGS6zzehw8 Cole’s been on the prospect map for what seems like forever, as a high profile prep arm in the 2010 draft that was an overpay in the 4th round. He was traded to Oakland in a package for Gio Gonzalez in 2011, then back to the Nationals for Mike Morse in 2013. Cole has a solid 6’5/200 pitching frame and is a good athlete that repeats his delivery well, projecting for at least average command . He sits mostly 91-94, but has been as high as 98 mph at times. Cole’s changeup is above average and is his best off-speed pitch and he also throws a slider and curveball, with both around average and the slider the better of the two. Cole projects as a 4th starter, had some success at Double-A and Triple-A in 2014 and will be 23 in 2015, with a shot to get into the big league rotation at some point. 看起来Cole似乎得在新秀名单待上一辈子。他是2010年选秀会上的高评价准战力，第四 轮选到他的国民花了大把钞票才让他点头签约；2011年被当成包裹的一部分交易到奥克 兰换Gio Gonzalez，接着2013年又因Mike Morse交易案回到国民。身为投手的Cole那六 尺五寸200 磅的体格相当好，优秀的运动能力也能帮助他持续将出手动作重复得不错， 预估至少有average command。球速几乎都落在91-94但有时也会上到98，最好的慢速球 种是above average changeup，他也会average的slider跟curve，而slider表现则好过 curve 。Cole预计是四号先发，2014年在2A与3A都取得一些不错的成绩，2015年将满23 岁，某个时间点有机会挤进大联盟轮值圈。 7. Wilmer Difo, 2B : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBDN1b1s47Y Difo came out of nowhere in 2014 to have a breakout season at age 22. He signed out of the Dominican in 2010 at age 18 and got his first real playing time in a full season league last year, with outstanding results: he hit 14 homers and stole 49 bases while also striking out in under 11% of his plate appearances. He has real tools, too, as his speed is plus-plus and he isn’t bad defensively at shortstop, but he likely ends up playing second base, where he should be at least average. 不知道从哪里冒出来的22岁Difo於2014年爆发。2010年仅18岁就签约离开多明尼加，去 年在他第一个真正的完整球季缴出杰出表现：14轰与49次盗垒成功，同时被三振率还能 低於11%。他是真货而速度有plus-plus级，游击区防守也不差，但他最可能站稳的位置 还是至少能有average的二垒。 Difo isn’t much of a power threat and his swing isn’t geared for power, but multiple Nats sources called him pound-for-pound the strongest guy in the system. He made big strides on and off the field last year but he still needs to make some higher level adjustments to let his tools play at the upper levels , having a consistent approach in each at bat and getting his hands loaded on time in each swing. Given his age, the Nats may skip High-A altogether and start Difo in Double-A if he appears up to the task in Spring Training. Difo没甚麽power威胁性，挥击方式也不是为了制造power，但多个国民人士认为经过量 化比较後他会是农场里最强壮的家伙。去年场内场外都有大幅进步，但他仍得对自己的 tools 做出一些调整来适应更高层级的挑战。每个打数都能把攻击策略保持一致，每次 挥棒都能准时摆好架式。考虑他的年纪，假使春训打得不错国民或许会直接跳过High-A 让他从2A开始。 （PS.Difo来自单亲家庭，据他表示过去为了想要尽快帮忙分摊家计而给自己太多压力。 去年好不容易想开了才有机会打出来。） Note: Taylor, Cole and Difo all could make a good case for being 50 FV. As I’m putting together all 30 lists to prepare for the overall top prospect list, I’ve split the 40 FV and 45 FV groups further, by adding 45+ and 40+ FV. I’ll continue to present the lists as I have so far, but I’ll make a note of which guys qualify for the higher grouping (Ward, Reetz and Voth are all 40+ FV). Note： Taylor、Cole与Difo都很可能达到 50 FV。就如我拿出前30名列表来准备所有顶级新秀 那样，接下来我会进一步区分 40 FV与45 FV集团为40+以及45+ FV。我将一如到目前为 止那样持续展示这份列表，但我会注明谁有资格进入高FV集团（Ward、Reetz 与Voth都 是40+ FV）。 The function of this is mostly to help me make each group smaller so when it’s time to rank players across lists that there’s fewer to compare to each other. The current plan is to have my overall prospect list include all players 45+ FV and up, which will be well over 100 and closer to 200 prospects. 这能帮助我缩小各个集团，当需要为球员排列等级时比较对象也会变少。目前计画是将 我所有列在45+ FV以上的新秀都抓进来，规模将会超过100甚至接近200个新秀。 8. Joe Ross, RHP : http://youtu.be/Sn2YinDRP_M?t=1m52s I wrote about Ross after he was traded to the Nationals in the Wil Myers three- way deal in December. Ross is a very athletic 6’4/205 with a clean arm action , a solid delivery, an explosive fastball (92-95 mph with plus life) and starter traits, along with good pedigree (25th overall pick 2011 out of high school) and bloodlines (younger brother of Padres RHP Tyson Ross). Some scouts suggest that Ross is a bit soft and question his mental toughness, which jives with the varying reports on his off-speed stuff. 经Wil Myers 三方交易使Ross转到国民後我曾在文里提到他（http://ppt.cc/BvuL）。 Ross 拥有充满运动能力的六尺四寸205磅身材，挥臂乾净，能维持住一致地出手动作。 可投出92-95 带plus尾劲的爆炸性速球，身怀先发投手特质，加上不错的出身（2011年 25顺位的高中毕业生）与血统（教士右投Tyson Ross的胞弟）。某些球探推测Ross有点 软也质疑他的心智不够强悍，而关於他慢速球的stuff也是看法分歧。 Ross has above average control (think BB rate) but only projects for fringy to average command (think K/BB ratio) because his off-speed stuff varies night to night and he has trouble hitting exact spots with a plan. I’ve heard future grades range from 45 to 55 (some mention it flashes 60) on his slider, with most scouts agreeing it’s a future average to slightly above pitch, with the same range on the changeup, with most scouts calling it fringy, but he doesn’t throw it much, so I rounded up to average. Ross 有above average control（从保送率考量）但只有边缘到average的command（从 三振保送比考量），因为他的慢速球stuff 每次出赛都不一样，也无法准确将球投到计 画中的位置。对於他slider的未来发展我听过45到55的评价，有些则提到曾看过60分的 表现，多数球探同意未来将会是average到略高於average。changeup的评价差不多，多 数球探觉得只是堪用边缘，但因为他不常投所以我将它统合到average。 On the right night, you may see a 70 fastball, 55 slider, 55 changeup and solid average command and think you’re watching a future #3/4 starter. On other nights, everything is a notch worse and you think you’re seeing an 8th inning reliever. Scouts that saw him late in 2014 said the energy and arm speed were down and they wondered if he was fatigued, unfocused, hurt or some combination thereof. He’s a solid bet to return big league value and has the traits that scouts like to see to bet on future improvement; I see a fastball-reliant, groundball-generating back end starter. 当他状况好时你也许将见识70分的fastball、55分的slider、55分的changeup与 solid average command ，你会觉得他的未来是三四号；状况不好时一切都变得相当糟糕而你 会觉得他未来只能投第八局。2014年球季後段观察过他的球探们说他的能量跟挥臂速度 都往下修，他们怀疑他是否累了、注意力不集中、受伤或者合并各种症状。他是个能回 馈大联盟价值的可靠赌注，也有令球探下注赌他未来还会进步的吸引力。我认为他是个 依赖fastball生存，能制造滚地球的轮值後段先发投手。 9. Brian Goodwin, CF : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQvOVEr5uhM Goodwin is more the typical type of center fielder compared to Taylor, the toolshed ranked 5th on this list. Goodwin is still plenty toolsy, as a plus runner (with just okay instincts, projecting average defensively in center) with an above average arm and fringy raw power. Goodwin has a line drive type approach, so the power is more 10-13 homers, still above average for the position. Like Taylor, Goodwin’s value comes down to his bat, but Goodwin’s offensive skills are more likely to translate at the big league level. He’s a late-count hitter than can get too passive at times, get in a rut and start over-thinking, causing problems only in his head, because his mechanics are consistent and he has above average bat speed. Goodwin will show flashes of leadoff hitter skills and will get a chance to redeem himself at Triple-A again in 2015. 跟工具挂满满的排名第五Taylor比起来Goodwin更接近传统型中外野手。Goodwin还是很 toolsy，是个plus runner，加上还可以的直觉，预估在中外野有average防守能力，也 还有above average arm跟过得去的raw power。Goodwin 采取打平飞球攻击策略，所以 power可以提供约10-13轰；在他的位置依旧是above average。就像Taylor，Goodwin的 价值也在他的棒子，但Goodwin 的攻击技巧更有机会转换到大联盟；因为他的机制相当 稳定而且也有above average 的挥棒速度。不过有时比起积极他会选择等更多球，墨守 成规而且开始想太多，在脑子里自找麻烦；Goodwin 将展现开路先锋的打击技巧，2015 年也将再次得到在3A证明自己的机会。 10. Pedro Severino, C : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6i6XQicGrE Severino is very fun to watch and in my very limited look at him in the AFL a few months ago, he jumped off the field at me. He’s an above average runner and defender with a plus arm and all kinds of energy. Severino’s swing is solid and he has some pop, but the offensive tools haven’t quite added up to big performance yet. The glove will be his calling card for now and Severino is an excellent pitch framer and game caller that’s already one of the better English speakers in the Nats system. If he can focus on making contact and staying short to the ball, there’s a potentially long career for an athletic catcher with above average defense that isn’t terrible at the plate. 当几个月前我在AFL用有限的机会观察Severino 时他相当有观赏价值，就像突然蹦到我 面前那样。他是个above average的runner与防守者，有plus arm 与所有种类的能量。 Severino挥棒相当稳固也有些长打能力，但攻击tools 还没以相当程度反映出来。目前 手套是他的主力武器，英语能力在国民农场中还算不错的Severino也是了不起的骗好球 能手跟战场指挥官，如果他能更专注於制造contact 并缩短挥棒轨迹这个充满运动能力 的捕手便有在大联盟长久生存的潜力。就一个拥有above average 防守的蹲捕者而言还 算不赖。 --

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