http://0rz.tw/AELs8 Prospect Retrospective: Ian Desmond By John Sickels on Jul 8 2013, 8:00a Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond is having his second consecutive excellent season, hitting .284/.326/.506 (through Saturday) and currently standing third among major league shortstops with a 3.0 fWAR. This follows on the heels of his impressive 2012 breakout season. At age 27, Desmond it at his peak. 华盛顿国民游击手 Ian Desmond继续他第二个了不起的球季。到周六 为止三围是.284/.326/.506，现阶段3.0 fWAR名列全联盟游击手第三 名。紧接着大放异彩的2012年，27岁的 Desmond正站在生涯高峰。 It was not always this way for the Nationals shortstop, but he is a good example of a tools player who figured out his baseball skills, making him our topic for today's Prospect Retrospective. 对这个国民游击手而言情况并非一直如此美好。但他的确是个拥有工 具并终於找出使用之道很好的例子，也因此他成为我们今天Prospect Retrospective的头条。 Ian Desmond was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the third round in 2004, out of high school in Sarasota, Florida. He was considered very toolsy but very raw when drafted, showing excellent arm strength and good speed, but lacking power and offensive polish. He hit .227/.272/.292 in 55 games of rookie ball in the Gulf Coast League after signing, hardly impressive numbers although organization officials praised his work ethic and physicality. He did steal 13 bases in 16 attempts. I didn't put him in the 2005 book but would have rated him as a Grade C, with a high ceiling but needing to refine his tools. Desmond是在2004年第三轮被蒙特娄博览会选走，出身佛州 Sarasota 高中，他被选进时被认为工具挂满身但非常生疏，臂力很强速度也不 错，只是炮瓦与攻击能力还是欠缺琢磨。签约後他在 GCL新人联盟55 场比赛只有.227/.272/.292，即使官方对他的工作态度跟身体素质颇 为赞赏，依然很难让人记得的数字。另外16次盗垒尝试成功13次。我 没把他放进2005年的年刊，但我会评给他 C，高天花板不过还需要精 进他的工具。 The Expos became the Nationals in the 2005, and the organization braintrust decided to push Desmond very quickly, skipping him past the New York-Penn League and assigning him directly to full-season ball. He hit .247/.291/.334 in 73 games for Savannah in the Sally League, then .256/.325/.385 in 55 games for Potomac in the Carolina League, after a very aggressive promotion. 2005年博览会变成国民，智囊团决定加快 Desmond的养成进度，让他 跳过短期联盟NYPL直接进入完整球季。他在Sally League的Savannah 出赛73场，缴出了.247/.291/.334，接着上到1A Carolina League的 Potomac ，上升速度非常积极。 He made 35 errors, but scouts liked his range and arm strength. He also stole 33 bases in 45 attempts, and impressed the front office with his emotional maturity. I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting his age-relative-to-league, but also noting the necessity to sharpen his plate discipline, given his 34/113 BB/K ratio in 515 at-bats. 虽然失误35次，但球探很喜欢他的防守范围与臂力，45次盗垒尝试成 功33次，成熟的情绪管控也令制服组印象深刻。2006年刊我给他 C， 他还非常年轻但必需改进本垒板纪律， 515个打数里BB/K是34/113。 Desmond began 2006 at Double-A Harrisburg, but he was overmatched and posted a .184/.221/.232 mark in 38 games, also struggling with the glove. Sent back to Potomac, he hit .244/.313/.384 in 92 games, similar to what he'd done in '05, though he looked more comfortable defensively. I gave him another Grade C, continuing to note his youth but also his lack of offensive progress. 2006年Desmond从2A Harrisburg开始，但他被强度压垮了。38场比赛 只有.184/.221/.232，连防守也问题连连。下放 Potomac後92场比赛 .244/.313/.384，跟05年的表现很接近，而且守得更舒服。我又给他 一次 C，继续标注他还年轻不过攻击面依旧欠缺。 The Nationals gave Desmond some stability in 2007, letting him play 129 games at Potomac. This resulted in an improved .264/.357/.432 mark, with 13 homers, 27 steals in 38 attempts, and a career high 57 walks. The Nationals made adjustments to his swing, enabling him to quicken up on fastballs, and he also did an improved job recognizing breaking balls. His defense remained solid. Although this was his third season at Potomac, he was still just 21 years old. I increased him to a Grade C+ in the 2008 book, noting the improvements and projecting that if he maintained this progress, he could see the majors in 2009 2007年国民选择稳稳地养 Desmond，让他在Potomac打完129场。结果 显示三围拉升到.264/.357/.432，13轰，盗垒38次27次成功，生涯新 高57个保送。国民调整他的挥棒，使他面对速球时能更快反应，而且 识别变化球的能力也更好了。他的防守还是很棒。即使这是他第三个 Potomac 球季，他也还只有21岁。2008年刊我加到C+，标注如果他的 突出与进步维持这样的进度，他有机会在09年上到大联盟。 Returning to Harrisburg in 2008, Desmond hit .251/.318/.406 in 93 games, with 12 homers, 31 walks, and 12 steals in 20 attempts. His discipline slipped, but it was certainly much better than his '08 Double-A trial. I did lower his grade to a straight C in the 2009 book, expressing concern about if he'd hit enough to start in the majors, but noting that he was still young and still had development potential. i should have stuck with the Grade C+. 2008年 Desmond回到Harrisburg，93场比赛打出.251/.318/.406，12 轰，31保送，盗垒20次尝试12次成功。选球退步了，不过依然比06年 好。2009年刊我把他稍微降到 C，我会关心他的打击能不能好到站稳 大联盟先发，但还是标注他年轻且还有天份没磨出来。我应该继续维 持C+才对。 Desmond began '09 at Harrisburg again, hitting .302/.372/.494 in 42 games. Promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, he remained hot with a .354/.428/.461 mark in 55 games, giving him a combined total of .330/.401/.477 on the season, with 21 steals in 26 attempts. Promoted to the majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 21 games, 82 at-bats. This was the first time his performance truly matched his potential. 2009年他继续在Harrisburg开始，42场比赛的三围.302/.372/.494。 升到 3A Syracuse後，55场比赛依旧是火烫的.354/.428/.461。当年 在小联盟合算.330/.401/.477，盗垒26次尝试21次成功。晋升至大联 盟後的21场比赛82个打数.280/.318/.561，这是他第一次确切发挥自 己的潜力。 I gave Desmond a Grade C+ in the 2010 book, writing that "I think he made real progress" but that he could use more consolidation time in Triple-A to cut down on routine errors and put the finishing touches on his plate discipline. My thinking was that he could be a ".260 hitter with pop." In retrospect, I should have gone with a B-. 2010年刊我给 Desmond评比C+，写到＂我想他真的有很大的进步＂。 只不过他还需要在3A磨更多时间以减少低级失误，以及於最後再加强 本垒板纪律。我想他能成为＂打击率.260的打者并带有炮瓦＂。回想 起来，我应该给他B-才对。 As you know, he didn't get more time in Triple-A and it doesn't look like he really needed it. Desmond hit .269/.308/.392 with 10 homers and 17 steals in 2010, with some poor plate discipline but showing those amazing tools frequently enough. He slipped with the bat in '11 (.253/.298/.358), but broke out last season (wRC+128) and has maintained the pace this year (wRC+126). His power has really blossomed, he's a 20-steal guy, and he's improved his defensive reliability without sacrificing range. 就像你知道的，他没在3A得到更多时间，而且看来也不需要。2010年 Desmond 打出.269/.308/.392，10轰，17次盗垒成功。本垒板纪律还 是略嫌可悲，但他已经将自己了不起的工具发挥得够好了。2011年三 围稍微下降到.253/.298/.358，去年则整个大爆发， wRC+128；今年 达到一样的水准， wRC+126。炮瓦彻底炸开，同时具备20盗的能力， 防守面就算不靠牺牲守备范围也有进步。 The Sim Score comp list through age 26 has some good names but some problematic ones as well: Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Khalil Greene, Miguel Tejada, Neifi Perez, Jeff Blauser, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brandon Phillips, Robby Thompson. Neifi doesn't really fit as a comp and his spot on that list is due to Colorado distortion. I don't see a Khalil Greeneish collapse on the horizon, and Ian is way better than Yuniesky. I particularly like the Jeff Blauser and Brandon Phillips comps and I think those fit well. 以26岁为条件透过Sim Score列出一个比较表： Orlando Cabrera，Stephen Drew，Khalil Greene ，Miguel Tejada， Neifi Perez ，Jeff Blauser，Yuniesky Betancourt，Brandon Phillips， Robby Thompson。 这些都是好手但同时也都有些问题。 Neifi并不是那麽适合拿来做比 较而他在表上的位置也失真了。我不认为Desmond会像Khalil Greene 那样突然从地平线上消失，而且他比Yuniesky更好。我特别喜欢Jeff Blauser 与Brandon Phillips的比较表，用这两个人比更合适。 Desmond may never hit .300 and his lack of patience still hinders him at times, but you can't really complain about a 20/20 shortstop who can field his position. I wish I'd given Desmond higher grades. The tools were always here and he figured out how to use them. The guy can play. Desmond 的打击率也许永远到不了.300，缺乏耐心也依然不时会阻挠 他。但你真的不能对一个 20/20又能防守的游击手有什麽抱怨。我希 望自己有给过 Desmond更高的分数。工具永远都在而他找出运用的方 法，这小子真的能打。 Prospect Retrospective这个专题, 是John Sickels写来回顾他过去给这些明星选手的评分. 他从没给Desmond高过C+的原因也很简单, 就是小联盟时期Desmond没把自己的优势彻底发挥出来, 加上糟糕的本垒板纪律. 现在Desmond的选球还是不好, 但起码炮瓦喷出来了. 目前国民农场最好的野手Goodwin也是满满的工具, 也很年轻而且潜能比Desmond更强, 22岁时Goodwin跟Desmond同样待在2A, Goodwin的成绩也比第二次上2A的Desmond更出色一些. 以现阶段状况国民两年之内都不会需要Goodwin上MLB, 他的养成还是很值得期待的. --

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