※ [本文转录自 TY_Research 看板] 作者: Waitingchen (Rejoyce ) 看板: TY_Research 标题: Re: 高尔书中提到十个关於全球暖化的错误想法 时间: Sat Nov 4 05:11:38 2006 我来权充一下翻译吧～ ※ 引述《xglaver (荆棘海)》之铭言： : 　　除了电影　不愿面对的真相　也有同名的专书 : 　　不知道会不会出中文版 : 　　书本最後有提到很多个人减少碳排放的做法 : 　　也有　The 10 most common misconceptions about global warming 十个关於全球暖化的误解 : 　　给大家当个参考 : 　　Misconception 1 : 　　" Scientists disagree about whether humans are causing the Earth's : 　　　climate to change." : 　→　In fact, there is strong scientific consensus that human activities : 　　　are changing the Earth's climates. Scientists overwhelmingly : 　　　agree that the Earth is getting warmer, that this trend is caused by : 　　　people, and that if we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the : 　　　atmosphere, the warming will be increasingly harmful. 误解一 「科学家对於人类是否造成地球气候变化都还没达成共识哩。」 → 事实上，科学界对人类活动正在影响气候这件事早有强烈的共识。大多数 科学家也同意地球正在变暖，而且暖化是由人类造成的，如果我们持续往 大气灌温室气体，暖化造成的灾害会越来越严重。 : 　　Misconception 2 : 　　" Lots of things can impact climate -- so there's no reason we should : 　　　single out CO2 to worry about." : 　→　Climate is sensitive to many things besides carbon dioxide -- sunspots, : 　　　for one, as well as water vapor. But this just proves how much we : 　　　should worry about CO2 and other human-influenced green house gases. : 　　　The fact that the climate system has been shown to be sensitive to : 　　　many sorts of natural changes throughout history should serve as a red : 　　　flag: We need to pay attention to the massive and unprecedented : 　　　changes we're causing. We have become more powerful than any force : 　　　of nature. 误解二 「许多因素都可以影响气候，干嘛特别把二氧化碳当成罪魁祸首？」 → 气候对於二氧化碳以外的其他因子，像是太阳黑子、水气等等，也都很敏 感。但正因为如此我们才该特别担心二氧化碳与其他人为排放的温室气体 。历史纪录显示了气候系统对於各种自然因子的敏感性，这其实是一个警 讯：我们必须更关注自己所造成的改变，人类的影响如此巨大且史无前例 ，早已超越任何自然因子的影响程度。 （注: 所谓的气候敏感度，就是指当某个因子被改变（例如大气的水气增 加或减少），气候状况的反应会有多大（例如地面温度会升高几度）。 一般而言，「全球平均地面温度」这个参数对水气量、极区冰雪覆盖量 最敏感，对水气以外的温室气体次之，对太阳强度、黑子数量等敏感度 相对较低。但是，气候系统的复杂性在於，所有的环节都是紧扣的，改 变温室气体往往就会连带改变水气与冰层分布，所有的效应因此叠加。 一个敏感的系统，代表着一点点的变动就会让系统产生很大的反应，所 以当我们越认识气候的复杂程度，就更该谨慎处理人类可能造成的大小 影响，因为它们都可能对气候造成重大改变。） : 　　Misconception 3 : 　　" Climate naturally varies over time, so any change we're seeing now is : 　　　just part of a natural cycle." : 　→　Climate does naturally change. By studying tree rings, take sediments, : 　　　ice cores, and other natural features that provide a record of past : 　　　climates, scientists know that changes in climate, including abrupt : 　　　changes, have occurred throughout history. But these changes all took : 　　　place with natural variations in carbon dioxide levels that were : 　　　smaller than the ones we are now causing. Cores taken from deep in : 　　　the ice of Antarctica show that carbon dioxide levels are higher now : 　　　than they have been at any time in the last 650,000 years, which means : 　　　we are outside the realm of natural climate variation. More CO2 in : 　　　the atmosphere means warming temperatures. 误解三 「气候本来就会自然变动，我们现在看到的不过是一种自然周期变化。」 → 的确，气候是会自然改变的，科学家在研究了树木年轮、沉积物、冰芯与其 它自然界对过往气候的纪录後，发现气候变化，包括短时间的剧烈变化，在 历史上都发生过，但是这些变化发生的当时，二氧化碳的浓度都在自然范围 内，且低於现今人类造成的浓度。根据南极钻探出的冰芯，目前的二氧化碳 浓度比过去六十五万年都要高，所以我们已经不处於「气候自然变化」的范 筹。而我们都知道，大气中二氧化碳增加，温度就会升高。 : 　　Misconception 4 : 　　" The hole in the ozone layer causes global warming." : 　→　There is a relationship between climate change and the ozone hole, but : 　　　this isn't it. The hole in the ozone layer -- a part of the upper : 　　　atmosphere that contains high concentrations of ozone gas and shields : 　　　the planet from the sun's radiation -- is due to man-made chemicals : 　　　called CFCs, which were banned by an international agreement called : 　　　the Montreal Protocol. The hole causes extra UV radiation to reach : 　　　the Earth's surface, but it does not affect the Earth's temperature. : 　　　The only connection between the ozone layer and climate change is : 　　　almost the exact opposite of the myth stated above. Global warming -- : 　　　while not responsible for the ozone hole -- could actually slow the : 　　　natural repairing of the ozone layer. Global warming heats the lower : 　　　atmosphere but actually cools the stratosphere, which can worsen : 　　　stratospheric ozone loss. 误解四 「是臭氧洞造成全球暖化的。」 → 气候变化和臭氧洞有关联，但并不是在暖化这件事情上。臭氧洞的发生，是 因为氟氯碳化物（一种人造化学物质，已被国际公约规定禁用）破坏了位於 大气高处、可阻隔有害太阳辐射的臭氧层。臭氧洞会让地面暴露於过多的紫 外线辐射，但不会影响地面温度。臭氧层与气候变化的唯一关联正好和误解 所提的相反：尽管全球暖化不是造成臭氧洞的原因，却会让臭氧洞复原的速 度减缓，因为全球暖化虽然使低层大气增温，却会让平流层冷却，加快平流 层臭氧的分解。 : 　　Misconception 5 : 　　" There is nothing we can do about climate change. It's already too : 　　　late." : 　→　This is the worst misconception of all. If "denial ain't just a river : 　　　in Egypt," despair ain't just a tire in the trunk. There are lots of : 　　　things we can do -- but we need to start now. We can't ignore the : 　　　causes and impacts of climate change any longer. We need to reduce : 　　　our use of fossil fuels, through a combination of government : 　　　initiatives, industry innovation, and individual action. Dozens of : 　　　things you can do are outlined in this resource guide. (注：指本书) 误解五 「没甚麽好做的啦，早就来不及了」 → 这个是最最最大的误解。虽说「不见棺材不掉泪」太过铁齿，但坐以待毙 也绝不是解决问题的方法。我们有很多可以做的，重点是，「现在」就要 开始做。我们不该再忽视自己对气候的作为与影响。当务之急是透过国际 公约、技术改良与个人行动各方面多管齐下、减少使用石化燃料。这本指 南里也整理了许多你可以做的事情。 : 　　Misconception 6 : 　　" Antarctica's ice sheets are growing, so it must not be true that : 　　　global warming is causing glaciers and sea ice to melt." : 　→　Some ice on Antarctica may be growing -- though other areas of : 　　　the continent are clearly melting and a new 2006 study shows that : 　　　overall the ice is shrinking in Antarctica. Even if some of the ice : 　　　is getting bigger, not shrinking, this doesn't change the fact that : 　　　global warming is causing glaciers and sea ice to melt around the : 　　　world. Globally, more than 85% of glaciers are shrinking. And in : 　　　any case, localized impacts of climate change don't cancel out the : 　　　global trends that scientists are observing. : 　　　Some people also mistakenly claim (in Michael Crichton's novel State : 　　　of Fear, for instance) that Greenland's ice is growing. In fact, : 　　　recent satellite data from NASA shows that Greenland's ice cap is : 　　　shrinking every year, causing sea levels to rise. The loss of that : 　　　ice doubled from 1996 to 2005. Greenland lost 50 cubic kilometers : 　　　of ice in 2005 alone. 误解六 「南极的冰层在变厚耶，说不定全球暖化根本不会让冰河和海冰融化。」 → 在南极的一些地区，冰层确实有增厚，但是南极大陆其他地区的冰层都很 明显地在融化，2006年最新的研究显示，南极的冰层整体而言都在缩减。 就算有些冰层在成长，全球暖化造成冰河和海冰融化仍是事实，全球有超 过85% 的冰河都在减退，局部地区的增加并没有办法抵销科学家观测到的 全球性减少趋势。 有些人（像是小说「恐惧之邦」）错误地宣称格陵兰的冰河在成长。事实 却是，NASA近来的卫星资料都显示格陵兰的冰帽逐年缩小，造成海平面上 升。冰层消融的体积从1996年到2005年已经加倍，光2005年一年，格陵兰 地区就损失了50立方公里的冰。 （注：我十月初听了一个关於两极冰层的演讲，提到许多今夏观测的资料 ，之後会另写一篇整理摘要） : 　　Misconception 7 : 　　" Global warming is a good thing, because it will rid us of frigid : 　　　winters and make plants grow more quickly." : 　→　This myth just doesn't seem to die. Because local impacts will : 　　　vary, it's true that some specific places may experience more pleasant : 　　　winter weather. But the negative impact of climate change vastly : 　　　outweighs any local benefits. Take the oceans, for example. Changes : 　　　to the oceans caused by global warming are already causing massive : 　　　die-offs of coral reefs, which are crucial sources of food and shelter : 　　　for creatures at every stage of the ocean food chain, all the way : 　　　up to us. Melting ice sheets are causing sea levels to rise, and if : 　　　big ice sheets melt into the ocean, many coastal cities around the : 　　　world will flood and millions of people will become refugees. There : 　　　are just some of the consequences of global warming. : 　　　Other predicted impacts include prolonged periods of drought, more : 　　　severe flooding, more intense storms, soil erosion, mass species : 　　　extinction, and human health risks from new diseases. The small : 　　　number of people who experience better weather may be doing it in : 　　　a landscape that is nearly unrecognizable. 误解七 「暖化也很好呀，这样冬天就不冷了，植物也长的比较快」 → 这个观点常常被人提出。没错，因为气候变化会因地而异，所以有些地方 在暖化之後就不会再有严冬。但是小区域得利并无法扭转对整体的负面影 响。举海洋为例，因为全球暖化，许多珊瑚礁大量死亡，珊瑚礁是海洋生 物的重要食物来源与栖地，透过食物链环环相连，最後人类也会受影响。 冰层融化造成海平面上升，如果大量冰层融化进入海洋，所有临海的城市 将会变淹没，上百万人都会成为灾民。这只是全球暖化之後的其中一两项 恶果。 其他预测出现的灾害包括长期乾旱、更严重的洪灾泛滥、风暴增强、土壤 侵蚀、物种灭绝、新型传染病威胁公共卫生等等。那一小撮能享受舒适天 气的人，也要看着熟悉的景物成为沧海桑田。 : 　　Misconception 8 : 　　" The warming scientists are recording is just the effect of cities : 　　　trapping heat, rather than anything to do with green house gases." : 　→　People who want to deny global warming because it's easier than : 　　　dealing with it try to argue that what scientists are really : 　　　observing is just the "urban heat island" effect, meaning that cities : 　　　tends to trap heat because of all the buildings and asphalt. This : 　　　is simply wrong. Temperature measurements are generally taken in : 　　　parks, which are actually cool areas within the urban heat islands. : 　　　And long-term temperature records showing just rural areas are : 　　　nearly identical to long-term records that include both rural areas : 　　　and cities. Most scientific research shows that "urban heat islands" : 　　　have a negligible effect on the overall warming of the planet. 误解八 「科学家看到的暖化不过是来自都市累积的热能，跟温室气体没有关系。」 → 很多鸵鸟心态想否认全球暖化的人会用「都市热岛」来解释科学家观测到 的资料，认为暖化是由於都市建筑物与柏油路面散热不佳。这个想法是错 误的。气温通常是在公园绿地等都市热岛中较凉爽的地点进行量测，而且 就算将「郊区」的长期温度资料独立出来看，变化与「郊区加都市」的资 料几乎相同。大部份的科学研究也显示「都市热岛」对全球的暖化影响微 乎其微。 : 　　Misconception 9 : 　　" Global warming is the result of a meteor that crashed in Siberia in : 　　　the early 20th century." : 　→　This may sound absurd to some of us, but it's real hypothesis : 　　　suggested by a Russian scientist. So what's wrong with it? Basically, : 　　　everything. The impact of a meteor, much like a volcanic eruption, : 　　　might have immediate effects on climate if it were large enough. But : 　　　there is no record of warming or cooling during the period after this : 　　　meteor hit. The effects that would have been produced by the meteor : 　　　would have involved water vapor, which only stays in the upper : 　　　atmosphere for a few years at the most. Any effects would have been : 　　　short-term, and could not be felt this far in the future. 误解九 「全球暖化是二十世纪初撞击西伯利亚的陨石造成的。」 → 这个说法相信不少人觉得很诡异。这是一位俄国科学家提出的假说。它的问 题在哪里呢？嗯，到处都是问题。陨石撞击的效应跟火山喷发很类似，如果 规模够大的话会让气候产生立即的改变。但是在这颗陨石撞击之後，并没有 纪录到任何显着的增温或冷却。陨石的影响是会增加高层大气的水气，但是 也只会维持几年，这些短期变化不可能残留到现在。 : 　　Misconception 10 : 　　" Temperatures in some areas aren't increasing, so global warming is : 　　　a myth." : 　→　It is certainly true that the temperature is not rising at every : 　　　point on the planet. In Michael Crichton's novel The State of Fear, : 　　　characters pass around graphs that show specific places around the : 　　　world where temperatures are decreasing slightly or remaining the same. : 　　　The graphs represent real data from real scientists. But while they : 　　　may be fact, they don't prove the point. Global warming refers to : 　　　the rise in the average temperature of the entire Earth's surface : 　　　due to increased levels of greenhouse gases. : 　　　Because the climate is an incredibly complex system, the impacts of : 　　　climate change will not be the same everywhere. Some areas of the : 　　　globe -- such as northern Europe -- might actually become colder. But : 　　　this does not change the fact that overall, the surface temperature : 　　　of the planet is rising, as are the temperatures of our oceans. The : 　　　gains have been demonstrated by several types of measurements -- : 　　　including satellite data -- that all show the same general results. 误解十 「有很多地方气温并没有增加，全球暖化是错的。」 → 的确，不是地球上每个地方都在变暖。在「恐惧之邦」里就有描述角色们互相 传阅几个地区温度在降低或维持不变的资料图表，而那些图表都是真实世界里 科学家观测到的纪录。这些都是事实，但也无法否定什麽。「全球暖化」指的 是「整个地球平均之後的地面温度」受温室气体的增加而升高。因为气候是一 个难以描述的复杂系统，每个地方感受到的气候变化都不一样。有些地区，如 欧洲北部，就很有可能会变冷。但这不会改变全球平均地面温度，还有海面温 度都在升高这个事实。相似的结果在不同观测方法得到的资料，包括卫星资料 ，都可以看到。 --

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