以下文章来自Phil Hellmuth,Jr.写的书， Play Poker Like the Pros. Chapter 1. Skill versus Luck in Poker 内容是说如何「看待运气」。我想其中有些与麻将一样的道理，在此全抄下来希望有兴 趣的人可以看看，晚点我会试着翻译看看这篇文章。 我想Hold'em与麻将最不一样的地方是在於，你想要看下一张牌几乎都要「花钱」。 但麻将不需要花太高的代价就能摸到下一张牌。 而Hold'em输赢决定在几张牌上，但麻将的输赢决定在上百张牌。资讯可以说是瞬息万变。 打麻将起手就决定不玩的人，常常会是输的。但是打Hold'em却必需要在很多牌一起手就 决定不玩。 反正麻将看下一张牌不用钱，只要在不放枪，不被自摸的前提下，你都是可以跟下去的。 除此之外，看待运气的方式我想是不会有太多的不一样。文章中一样提到要纪录输赢。 看得懂英文的人可以先看看。 顺带一提，此书作者已靠Hold'em赢得超过两百万美金，上千万的台币。 Most people today misunderstand poker. Let's be frank: most people know poker from the low-stakes games they now play (or grew up playing) with their family and friends. In these low-stakes home games,luck often plays a much bigger role than skill. The money to be gained or lost in a home tends to mean next to nothing, and everyone at th table plays almost every hand to the end. The dealer's choice games are often nonstandard, even bizarre variations (often fun) where, for example, deuces, black kings, or one-eyed jacks (or all of them) are wild. In this type of poker game, peoplejust put their money in the middle (in the "pot") and hope to make the best hand. Often, there doesn't seem to be much strategy or thought involved. When the evening winds up, everyone seems to agree that "Johnny sure was hot tonight!" You don't hear anyone saying, "Boy, did Johnny play great tonight. I sure am afraid of him at the poker table." One reason why luck has such a big role in home-style poker games is that many of the skills we use in pro-style games just don't come into play in a home game. For example, three of the more important skills that we use are being patient in determining which starting hands to play, bluffing, and reading people. Patience, like discipline, is a virtue in many areas of life, and poker is no exception. It is in the nature of professional or tough high-stakes poker games that it is mathematically correct to fold a lot of hands right away. If you are playing too many hands (which equates to too many bad hands) in a tough poker game, you will often find yourself "drawing mighty thin," that is, trying to win by catching particular cards that are in short supply. The plain fact is that if you play too many hands in a pro-level poker game, you just cannot win, certainly not in the long run and probably not even on just one given night, no matter how lucky you are. But if you're playing a lot of hands in a home poker game, you may be in good shape anyway, because the sheer size of the pot will wind up offering you odds suffcient to draw to an inside straight (add a nine, for example, to your 7-8-10-J hand) or another "unlikely to hit" hand. You'll usually lose, but when you do manage to hit the card you need, you're going to win a huge pot. Further, the number of cards that can complete what you need in the late rounds of a hand in a home game is often larger than one sees in the pro game, because the dealer has designated various wild cards or rules that allow you extra draws or give you chances to buy another card or replace a card. Because you don't see these big pots and people paying you off with weak hands in a pro poker game, patience is crucial there. In the traditional home-style poker games, patience not only is not as important but may actually clash with the "spirit" of the game -- that "We're all here just to have fun and gamble." Playing a more technically informed style may win you more money in a home game, but it might also mean that you're not invited back the next time the game is held! In a casino poker game or an online poker game , of course, you don't need to be concerned that you might not be invited back . Another key difference between home poker games and the games that the pros play is that bluffing actually succeeds in the pro-style games! In a home game, it's extremely hard to pull off a bluff, because you usually can't bet enough money on the last bet to get your opponents to fold. For 25 cents, someone who is convinced he is beaten is nontheless willing to throw the two bits into the pot, just to see what you have, and, oops, there goes your attempted bluff. In fact, in most situations in these home games where there is a "bet on the end" (in the last round of action in a given hand), someone is always egging someone else on to be the "sheriff." "Bill, you call that boy and be the sheriff this hand! We can't let him bluff us!" In the pro game, bluffing is a sound strategy, because in the late stages of a hand there aren't many people who haven't folded. If you've been playing very few hands (that is, patiently), and have seldom been caught bluffing during a day of play, then when you do bluff, it's hard for those remaining in the hand to "call you down" through the last bet. Long live the bluff! Bluffing well is an art form, and I will be addressing it at various points throughout this book. The bluff is one of the poker crafts-man's tools that is seldom available to players in wild, friendly, low-stakes games. Another important element in pro poker games is reading your opponents. Are they riding on "hot air" or the real thing? In a lot of home games, there is just so much money in the pot, relative to the size of the final bet, that it makes sense to call that bet. (What do you have to lose?) In pro poker, theres is enough money involved, and enough actual thought processes are being utilzed, that many situations come up where you can take advantage of a good read -- which might arise either from your ability to detect weakness or strength in body language or from your ability to assess the implications of the betting pattern on the hand -- and make either a good call or a good fold. But it's hard to read someone who hasn't really been thinking about the hand and can't possibly be nervous about losing $1.75! The skill factor in poker is much higher in the pro game. There is just too much at stake for anyone to rely solely on luck. Let's take a quick glimpse at the high-stakes poker world, an enterprise that yields several of my friends over a million dollars a year! At this level , too, luck is a factor on any given day, week, or month, but what's different is that if you play better poker than your opponents do, pretty consistently, you'll find that over almost any two-month period your winnings have exceeded your losses. Furthermore, if you play better poker than your opponents over a six-month period, your result will have moved very solidly in the winning direction. Making a few well-timed bluffs each day will add up to a lot of money each year! In fact, if an inexperienced poker player were to sit down for a few hours with a group of world-calss poker players, he would have virtually no chance to win over even an eight-hour period. This very fact is why five or six top pros might be willing to sit down in the same game with this fellow and each other: the money that even one amateur is likely to contribute makes it worth their while to do battle with so many respected opponents. This is why so many of the top poker players today drive fine cars and live in palatial home. Right now, as you're reading this book, there is a $600-$1,200-limit poker game at the Bellagio Casino in Las Vegas and a $400- $800-limit poker game at the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles. There is a $200- $400-limit game somewhere in New York City. They're playing no-limit poker in San Francisco at the Lucky Chances Casino and high-stakes pot-limit poker in London at the Grosvenor Victoria ("The Vic") and in Paris at the Aviation Club de France. In Vienna, at the Concorde Card Casino, they're playing $75- $150 Seven-Card Stud. (I'll have more to say about these two-figure games in Chapter 2.) If that's not enough action for you, four night a week in Los Angeles, there is a $2,000-$4,000-limit Seven-Card Stud game at Larry Flynt's Hustler Club Casino, with Larry himself often playing. In the $400-$800-limit poker game it's easy to take a $25,000 swing in one our. In the $2,000-$4,000-limit game, where movie stars, former governors, and billionaires play, it's not uncommon for someone to win or lose $250,000 in one night. In these "nosebleed " poker games (the term refers to the altitude of the stakes), strategy, discipline, calculation of the odds, and practiced observation contribute to a game that involves much more skill. Better play wins more hands in the long run. Imagine yourself facing down Larry Flynt in the $2,000-$4,000 Seven-Card Stud game at the Hustler Club Casino. You're sitting there trying to figure out if he has a strong hand or is full of hot air (bluffing). If you decide right, you will win $25,000, but if you're wrong, it will cost you $25,000. What do you do? You make a good read--of the situation, of the odds, of your opponent--and make an educated guess, rather than a plain old boldfaced guess! The chief difference between your home poker game and the games of the big players is the preponderance of luck in the one and the preonderance of skill in the other. In a game (the Flynt game) where winning just one $4,000 bet a night would mean an income of $16,000 per week (this game runs four days a week), one carefully earned bet can make a great deal of difference. That's the way thing look into the high-stakes "side game" world at large, but there is even more evidence that skill is present and important in high-stakes poker tournaments today. (When I say "side-game" world, I mean the nontournament poker world.) Why do the same people, by and large, keep winning poker tournaments year after year? They win because the apply finely honed strategies and tactics, calculate and recalculate the odds, read their opponents well, avoid becoming predictable, and know how and when to make a good bluff. Some of the most famous poker players in the world today have made their names in poker tournaments. Doyle "Texas Dolly" Bruson has eight bracelets (titles) from the World Series of Poker (WSOP) at age 66. I have seven, and so does Johnny "The Oriental Express" Chan. "Amarillo Slim" Preston--whose name is known even to the general public--has four or five WSOP titles, depending, as Slim himself would say, on "who does the telling." I'm proud to say that I was the all-time leading money winner in WSOP history in 2001, haveing won more than $2,800,000. (Unfortunately for me, Hohnny Chan and T.J. Cloutier both passed me in 2002. But there is no one within $600,000 of the three of us.) As I write this in 2002, only six people have won more than $2 million in their WSOP "careers" (that is, on the all-time list); and Johnny Chan just crossed the $3 million mark in 2002. (He beat me there! But I'll win the race to $7 million!) Althought the same people don't win all the poker tournament, by the time year's end rolls around , the same people always seem to end up having won several tournaments year in and year out. This is one of the appealing aspects of poker tournaments: the record is out there for every one to see; some players are consistently successful, and others are not. (The side games, though very lucrative, keep no records.) If serious poker were a game where luck predominated, this would not and could not happen. Everynone involved would win about the same number of tournaments as everyone else (as tends to happen in slot tournaments or craps tournaments),and no one would make (or lose) any serious money. But that's not what years and years of proven, recorded results show. One last note: Beware of playing in the small stakes poker games in Las Vegas or other casinos. No matter how good you are it is very hard to beat the "rake" (the money that is taken out of every pot each hand). It's best to avoid the $2-$4 limit games and below, and watch the rake--if it seems like it's too much, then play with shorter money in a higher limit game that is beatable. -- █◣ █ ◢◥ ◣◢ █◥ █◣ ◢◣ █◣ ◤█ █◢ █ █▅ ◥◣ █▆ █◢ █ ▌█◢ ◢◤ █ █◣ ◤◥ ◢◤ █◣ █◥ ◥◤ █◥ ◣█ --

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