旧科技演化创新 继续吃香 Technology That Evolves to Survive By Steve Lohr IN 1991, Stewart Alsop, the editor of InfoWorld and a thoughtful observer of industry trends, predicted that the last mainframe computer would be unplugged by 1996. In February, I.B.M. introduced the latest version of its mainframe, the aged yet remarkably resilient warhorse of computing. 1991年，对产业趋势观察入微的《资讯世界》总编辑史都华‧艾索普预言， 到1996年，最後一部大型电脑势必拔下插头退场。但到今年2月，I.B.M.还在发表 最新版本的大型电脑。这种大型主机老骥伏枥，依旧志在千里。 Today, mainframe sales are a tiny fraction of the personal computer market. But with the mainframe facing extinction, I.B.M. retooled the technology, cut prices and revamped its strategy. A result is that mainframe technology remains a large and lucrative business for I.B.M., and mainframes are still the back-office engines behind the world’s financial markets and much of global commerce. 今天，大型电脑的销量只占个人电脑市场一小部分，不过，I.B.M.在其濒绝 之际，重整其科技，削减售价，并调整发展策略。结果，大型电脑科技迄今仍是 I.B.M.旗下获利颇丰的重要部门，而且大型电脑还是全球金融市场和大多数全球 商业活动後勤支援部门的核心引擎。 The mainframe stands as a telling case in the larger story of survivor technologies and markets. The demise of the old technology is confidently predicted, and indeed it may lose ground to the insurgent, as mainframes did to the personal computer. But the old technology or business often finds a sustainable, profitable life. Television, for example, was supposed to kill radio, and movies, for that matter. Cars, trucks and planes spelled the death of railways. A current forecast is that the Web will kill print media. 在范围更广的科技与市场逆境求生的故事中，大型电脑只是一个鲜活的例子。 旧科技被铁口断言必死无疑，它们也的确像大型电脑面对个人电脑新秀挑战一样， 可能惨败。不过，旧科技或老企业往往找得到永续生存与获利之道。例如，同理， 电视照说应该歼灭收音机和电影；汽车、卡车和飞机，应该终结铁路。而当前的预 言则是，网路势必消灭平面媒体。 What are the common traits of survivor technologies? First, it seems, there is a core technology requirement: there must be some enduring advantage in the old technology that is not entirely supplanted by the new. But beyond that, it is the business decisions that matter most: investing to retool the traditional technology, adopting a new business model and nurturing a support network of loyal customers, industry partners and skilled workers. 这些打不死的旧科技有哪些共同特点﹖首先，似乎必须拥有核心科技：旧科技 必须有新科技无法完全取代，且历久不衰的某种优势。不过，除此之外，商业决策 还是最重要：肯投资重整传统科技，采纳新商业模式，培养由死忠顾客、产业夥伴 及技术劳工组成的支持网络。 The unfulfilled predictions of demise, experts say, tend to overestimate the importance of pure technical innovation and underestimate the role of business judgment. “The rise and fall of technologies is mainly about business and not technological determinism,” said Richard S. Tedlow, a business historian at the Harvard Business School. 专家说，旧科技必定被消灭的预言落空，问题出在太高估纯科技创新的重要性 ，低估商业判断的角色。哈佛商学院商业史教授理查‧泰德洛说：「科技兴衰，关 键在商业，而非科技决定论。」 To survive, technologies must evolve, much as animal species do in nature. Indeed, John Steele Gordon, a business historian and author, observes that there are striking similarities in the evolutionary process of markets and biological ecosystems. Dinosaurs, he notes, may be long gone, victims of a change in climate that better suited mammals. But smaller reptiles evolved and survived, and today there are more than 8,000 species of reptiles, mainly lizards and snakes, compared with about 5,400 species of mammals. 科技要图存，势须演化，就像物种在大自然里求生。商业史专家兼作者约翰‧ 史提尔‧戈登观察说，市场的演化过程和生物生态系统，相似度令人称奇。他指出 ，恐龙虽然早就灭绝，成为对哺乳类动物有利之气候变化的牺牲者。但体型较小的 爬虫类就因为演化而幸存。今天，地球上的爬虫类超过8千种，主要是蜥蜴和蛇类。 相较之下，哺乳类动物只有约5,400种。 As a media technology, radio is an evolutionary survivor. Its time as the entertainment hub of American households in the 1930s and ’40s gave way to the rise of television. 在媒介科技方面，收音机也算进化幸存者。收音机本来是1930和40年代美国家 庭娱乐重心，後被新崛起的电视赶上。 TV replaced radio as the box families gathered around in their living rooms. Instead, radio adopted shorter programming formats and became the background music and chat while people ride in cars or do other things at home – “audio wallpaper,” as Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster in Silicon Valley, puts it. 电视取代收音机，成为美国家庭在起居室里围观的那个盒子。至於收音机，则 把机身变小，改变程式格式，成为人们开车或在屋里做其他事情时的背景音乐和闲 谈的话题。矽谷科技预测专家保罗‧沙佛则把收音机形容为「有声壁纸」。 While television did pose a threat to movies, it also served as a prod to innovation, including failures like Smell-O-Vision but also wide-screen, rich-color technologies like Cinerama. The idea was to give viewers a more vivid, immersive experience than they could possibly have with television. 电视虽然同样威胁到电影，但也强迫电影尝试创新，包括出师未捷的嗅觉电影 和宽银幕、色彩丰富的新艺拉玛科技。它们的目的都在提供观众一个比电视更鲜活 、更难忘的体验。 A change in the economic environment can sometimes lead to the renaissance of an older technology. Railroads, for example, have enjoyed a revival of investment recently as rising fuel costs and road congestion have prompted shippers to move from trucks to trains. 经济环境改变，有时也使老旧科技东山再起。例如，最近因燃油成本飞涨，公 路堵塞，货运业者弃卡车而就火车，铁路重新掀起一股投资热潮。 The weight of legacy is underestimated, said John Staudenmaier, editor of the journal Technology and Culture, because innovation is so often portrayed as a bold break with the past. 《科技与文化》期刊总编辑约翰‧史陶登麦尔说，由於创新经常被形容为勇於 除旧，所以旧科技的分量常被低估。 The mainframe is the classic survivor technology, and it owes its longevity to sound business decisions. I.B.M. overhauled the insides of the mainframe, using low-cost microprocessors as the computing engine. The company invested and updated the mainframe software, so that banks, corporations and government agencies could still rely on the mainframe as the reliable and secure computer for vital transactions and data, while allowing it to take on new chores like running Web-based programs. 大型电脑是典型的遗老科技，其高寿端赖健全的商业决策。I.B.M.彻底改造大 型主机内部，采用低成本微处理器做为运算引擎。公司还投资更新大型电脑软体， 使银行、企业和政府机关继续仰赖大型电脑，做为关键交易与资料的安全靠山，同 时利用它们来执行诸如网页程式等新的杂务。 “The mainframe survived its near-death experience and continues to thrive because customers didn’t care about the underlying technology,” said Irving Wladawsky-Berger, who led the technical transformation of the mainframe in the early 1990s and now teaches at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Customers just wanted the mainframe to do its job at a lower cost, and I.B.M. made the investments to make that happen.” 1990年代初期负责大型电脑技术转型工作，现在麻省理工学院任教的欧文‧瓦 拉道斯基─伯格说：「大型电脑能浴火重生，继续茁壮成长，因为客户对底层的科 技并不在乎。客户只在乎大型电脑能否以低成本做好该做的事，而I.B.M的投资，为 客户实现了这个愿望。」 关键字句 Mainframe computer 可简称mainframe，就是大型电脑或主机，因为早期电脑体积 庞大，必须用整个房间或铁架来供奉而得名，骇客（hackers）称之为「大铁盒 （Big Iron）」。 个人电脑（Personal Computer，PC）运算能力大幅提高後，运算力强，价钱昂贵的 大型电脑大多用在数据庞大的运算，如金融交易（financial transactions）、产 业与消费统计（industry and consumer statistics）、人口普查（census）等。 至於数据更庞大，速度要求更高的运算，如天文运算（astronomical operation）、 核武模拟（nuclear weapon simulations）、气象预测（weather forecast）等，则 交给能力更强的超级电脑（supercomputer）。不过，现在也有人用mainframe来形容 高阶商用电脑（high-end commercial machine），和运算能力较低的机器作区隔。 Back-office engine，指证券经纪公司（brokerage firm）支援交易的行政作业 （administrative functions），包括成交确认（trade confirmation）、清偿 （settlement）等，但也指公司内部未直接涉及营业的支援行政部门，如维持电话 、电脑、会计及人力资源正常运作的资讯科技（IT）部门。 Back-office system通常指公司内负责销售、采购及更新库存（update the inventory）的系统，美国最流行把这类行政工作外包（outsourcing）给印度或其 他人力低廉的国家。 Smell-O-Vision和Cinerama是电影发展史上两个失败的例子，嗅觉电影始於1916年 ，当时电影仍在默片（silent film）阶段，都是戏院主人在电影放映中玩散播香 气（scents）的把戏（trick），後来因为味道会混杂在一起（becoming muddled） ，为人诟病；新艺拉玛则是用三部35mm放映机把影片同步投射到宽银幕上，再配合 六声道的立体音响系统播放音效的技术，Cinerama就是这家公司的注册商标 （trademark） 。 原文参见 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23/technology/23digi.html　 http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/21/business/digi24.php　 -- 大弦嘈嘈如急雨，小弦切切如私语。 嘈嘈切切错杂弹，大珠小珠落玉盘。 间关莺语花底滑，幽咽泉流水下滩。 水泉冷涩弦凝绝，凝绝不通声渐歇。 别有幽愁暗恨生，此时无声胜有声。 银瓶乍破水浆迸，铁骑突出刀枪鸣。 曲终收拨当心画，四弦一声如裂帛。 东船西舫悄无言，唯见江心秋月白。 --

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