2026/3/16 by ESPN Tim Bontemps & Bobby Marks https://tinyurl.com/28fcuypu In December 2020, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league was taking a fresh look at the idea of expanding after nearly two decades. For the past five years since he floated the concept, an entire industry around the idea has developed as great anticipation has built. And after several fits and starts, the league is now barreling toward the addition of two teams, as ESPN's Shams Charania reported Monday that next week's board of governors meeting will include a vote to explore adding Seattle and Las Vegas franchises beginning with the 2028-29 season. Here's our latest intel from conversations with sources in and around the NBA on how this complicated, league-altering process could play out. 2020 年 12 月，NBA执行长 Adam Silver 表示，联盟在经历近二十年後，正重新审视扩 编的想法。自他提出这个概念以来的过去五年中，随着期待感不断升温，围绕这一构想的 整个产业已经成形。 在经历几次起伏後，联盟现在正加速朝着增加两支球队的方向前进。根据 ESPN 记者 Shams Charania 周一的报导，下周的董事会将针对「2028-29 赛季增加西雅图与拉斯维 加斯球队」进行投票。 以下是我们透过与 NBA 内部及相关消息人士交谈，针对这一复杂且将改变联盟格局的过 程可能如何发展所获得的最新资讯。 Why expand now? Expansion is an economic question for the league's existing 30 owners. At what point does the math make sense to where it becomes worth it to go from owning 1/30 of the league to 1/32? NBA teams currently own 3.33% of the league. If the league jumps to 32 teams, that percentage drops to 3.13%. While that might seem like an insignificant change, those fractions of a percentage will really add up over time -- particularly when factoring in, for example, the league's media rights deal, which is currently an 11-year, $76 billion package split between Disney, Amazon and Comcast. So why would the owners do it? Because, at some point, the math tips in their favor if the expansion fees -- which aren't shared with the players and go straight into the owners' pockets -- get big enough. With team valuations skyrocketing in recent seasons, including the Los Angeles Lakers selling for $10 billion last year, the realistic numbers the NBA could expect to pursue in expansion has risen along with it. Charania reported that proposals could land between $7 and $10 billion. For example, let's say both teams sell for a total of $15 billion. That would mean all 30 existing NBA owners would immediately receive a $500 million check, a massive incentive to move forward with expansion now. 为何选在现在扩编？ 对於联盟现有的 30 位老板来说，扩编是一个经济问题。数学计算要在什麽时候才合理， 让拥有联盟的 1/30 变成 1/32 是值得的？ 目前的 NBA 球队各自拥有联盟 3.33% 的股份。如果联盟增加到 32 支球队，该百分比将 降至 3.13%。虽然这看似微不足道，但随着时间推移，这些百分比的碎片将积少成多—— 特别是考虑到联盟的媒体权利协议，目前是一份由 Disney、Amazon 和 Comcast 瓜分的 11 年 760 亿美元方案。 那麽，老板们为什麽要这麽做？因为在某个时间点，如果扩编费（这笔费用不与球员分成 ，直接进入老板口袋）足够庞大，数学计算就会向他们倾斜。随着球队估值在近几季飙升 ，包括去年洛杉矶湖人队以 100 亿美元售出，NBA 预期在扩编中追求的现实数字也随之 水涨船高。Charania 报导称，提案金额可能落在 70 亿至 100 亿美元之间。 例如，假设两支球队总共以 150 亿美元成交。这意味着现有的 30 位 NBA 老板每人将立 即收到 5 亿美元的支票，这是目前推动扩编的巨大动力。 Will expansion definitely happen? It will be shocking if expansion doesn't happen. Within league circles, it has been seen as the expected outcome for several years, though it was far from a certainty because of some pushback from different owners over the economics for the reasons laid out above. However, when Silver said in December a decision was coming in 2026, the belief within the league was that expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas was close to inevitable. While next week's vote is not a binding resolution, something like that is more likely to come at the July board of governors meeting during the Las Vegas Summer League, sources told ESPN. 扩编一定会发生吗？ 如果扩编没发生，那将令人震惊。 在联盟圈子里，这已被视为数年来的预期结果，尽管由於不同老板对上述经济因素的抵触 ，这并非百分之百确定。然而，当席佛在 12 月表示将於 2026 年做出决定时，联盟内部 的信念是：扩编至西雅图和拉斯维加斯几乎是不可避免的。 消息人士告诉 ESPN，虽然下周的投票不是具约束力的决议，但类似的决议更有可能在 7 月拉斯维加斯夏季联赛期间的董事会会议上提出。 Do the players have any say? The decision on expansion rests solely with the board of governors and will require approval from 23 of the 30 existing owners to move forward. While the National Basketball Players Association has a say in many matters -- for example, potentially making the schedule shorter -- adding teams is not one of them. That said, the idea of adding another 30 roster spots (36 including two-way contracts) is one the union would be very much in favor of, sources said. 球员有发言权吗？ 扩编的决定全权由董事会负责，且需要现有 30 位老板中的 23 位批准才能继续。虽然国 家篮球球员协会（NBPA）在许多事务上有发言权（例如：可能缩短赛程），但增加球队并 不在此列。 尽管如此，消息人士表示，工会非常支持增加另外 30 个球员名单名额（包括双向合约在 内共 36 个）的想法。 Why Seattle? To right a past wrong. Seattle has been the biggest city in the country without an NBA team for nearly 20 years, since the SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City. Bringing a team back to Seattle in 2028-29, 20 years after the Thunder began playing in OKC in 2008, would become one of the defining events of Silver's tenure as commissioner. For years, the issue with the NBA's return to Seattle was the lack of a replacement for KeyArena, deemed inadequate by the league as part of the Sonics' move. That changed in 2021 when the renovated Climate Pledge Arena opened as home of the WNBA's Storm and the expansion NHL Kraken. 为什麽是西雅图？ 为了纠正过去的错误。 自超音速队搬迁至奥克拉荷马城以来，西雅图近 20 年来一直是美国没有 NBA 球队的最 大城市。在 2008 年雷霆队开始在 OKC 比赛後的 20 年（即 2028-29 赛季），让球队重 返西雅图，将成为席佛担任执行长期间最具代表性的事件之一。 多年来，NBA 重返西雅图的问题在於缺乏 KeyArena 的替代方案，该场馆在超音速搬迁时 被联盟认为不合格。这种情况在 2021 年发生了变化，翻修後的气候宣言竞技场（ Climate Pledge Arena）启用，成为 WNBA 风暴队和 NHL 扩编球队海怪队的主场。 Why Las Vegas? Vegas has become the league's unofficial 31st city, with its annual Summer League growing over the past decade into the NBA's version of Comic-Con, a massive event that brings hundreds of thousands of fans each July. And, for the first three years of its existence, Vegas hosted the championship round of the Emirates NBA Cup. Las Vegas has exploded in popularity from a sports standpoint in recent years, with the Raiders arriving from Oakland in 2020, the Aces coming from San Antonio in 2018, the Golden Knights entering the NHL as an expansion team in 2017 and MLB's Athletics eventually coming from Oakland (via Sacramento). 为什麽是拉斯维加斯？ 维加斯已成为联盟非正式的第 31 座城市，其年度夏季联赛在过去十年中已发展成为 NBA 版的「动漫展（Comic-Con）」，这是一项每年 7 月吸引数十万球迷的盛大活动。而 且，在阿联酋 NBA 盃（Emirates NBA Cup）存在的前三年，维加斯都承办了决赛轮。 从体育角度来看，拉斯维加斯的受欢迎程度在近年呈爆炸式增长：2020 年突击者队（ Raiders）从奥克兰迁入，2018 年王牌队（Aces）从圣安东尼奥迁入，2017 年金骑士队 （Golden Knights）作为扩编球队进入 NHL，以及 MLB 的运动家队（Athletics）最终也 将从奥克兰（经由萨克拉门托）迁入。 Could other cities try to get a team? Several cities have received some attention as being possibilities, from international locations such as Mexico City, Vancouver and Montreal to American cities such as Kansas City, Louisville and Nashville. Maybe in the future a European division could be possible, but not before significant changes in air travel make it more feasible. None, however, were ever likely to leapfrog Vegas or Seattle. 其他城市会尝试争取球队吗？ 有几个城市作为可能性受到了一些关注，从墨西哥城、温哥华和蒙特娄等国际地点，到堪 萨斯城、路易斯维尔和纳许维尔等美国城市。未来或许可能成立欧洲分区，但在飞航型态 发生重大变化使其更具可行性之前，这是不可能的。然而，目前没有任何城市可能超越维 加斯或西雅图。 Would Seattle be the SuperSonics? Would it retain that franchise's pre-2008 history? In short: yes. The deal between Thunder ownership and the city of Seattle resolving a lawsuit over the team's arena lease and allowing its move to Oklahoma City stipulated that the name SuperSonics and all associated logos, colors and trademark would be transferred to the owner of a new NBA team approved to play at a renovated KeyArena at no cost. That agreement laid out the terms of shared ownership of Sonics history, including the team's 1979 championship trophy and retired jerseys. Officially, the NBA combines the history of both teams. For example, the league recognizes Hall of Famer Gary Payton as Oklahoma City's all-time leader in games played. The Thunder, however, do not hang any banners for the SuperSonics in Oklahoma City, and in their media guide they don't highlight any Seattle stats -- listing, for example, Russell Westbrook as the team's all-time assists leader, rather than Payton. Sources said if a team was to return to Seattle, the Thunder would cede the Seattle history back to the SuperSonics -- just as the NBA's Charlotte Hornets reclaimed the Charlotte-era history of the New Orleans Pelicans when Charlotte regained the Hornets name in 2014. 西雅图球队会叫超音速吗？会保留 2008 年前的队史吗？ 简而言之：是的。 雷霆队所有权与西雅图市之间解决球场租约诉讼并允许球队迁往奥克拉荷马城的协议规定 ，「超音速（SuperSonics）」的名称以及所有相关标志、颜色和商标，将免费转让给获 准在翻修後的 KeyArena 比赛的新 NBA 球队老板。 该协议列出了超音速队历史共享所有权的条款，包括球队 1979 年的冠军奖盃和退休球衣 。官方上，NBA 将两支球队的历史合并。例如，联盟承认名人堂成员盖瑞·培顿（Gary Payton）为奥克拉荷马城队史的出赛场次领袖。 然而，雷霆队在奥克拉荷马城并未悬挂任何超音速队的旗帜，且在媒体指南中也不强调西 雅图时期的数据——例如，将罗素·卫斯特布鲁克（Russell Westbrook）列为队史助攻 王，而非培顿。 消息人士表示，如果球队重返西雅图，雷霆队将把西雅图的历史交还给超音速队——就 像 2014 年夏洛特黄蜂队重新获得黄蜂名称时，从纽奥良鹈鹕队手中收回夏洛特时期的历 史一样。 If two teams are added in the West, what will happen to the conferences? Seattle and Las Vegas would both land in the West, necessitating one franchise shifting from West to East to rebalance the 17-15 split. The decision would likely be between three teams: the Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies. Geographically, New Orleans and Memphis are the Eastern-most teams in the Western Conference but are short flights from several West opponents (each other, all three Texas teams and the Thunder). Minnesota is farther west but far more geographically isolated. The Timberwolves' closest West opponent, the Denver Nuggets, are 680 miles away. Six East cities (Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland and Toronto) are within that range. It would likely be a protracted fight to determine who would move East, but those facts would seem to make Minnesota the most logical choice. 如果西部增加两支球队，分区会发生什麽变化？ 西雅图和拉斯维加斯都将位於西部，这势必需要一支球队从西区移至东区。 这个决定可能会在三支球队之间产生：明尼苏达灰狼、纽奥良鹈鹕和曼菲斯灰熊。从地理 上看，纽奥良和曼菲斯是西区最靠东的球队，但距离几个西区对手（彼此、三支德州球队 和雷霆队）的飞行距离很短。 明尼苏达虽然位置更偏西，但在地理上更为孤立。灰狼队最近的西区对手丹佛金块队距 离 680 英里。而在这个范围内有六个东区城市（密尔瓦基、芝加哥、印第安纳波利斯、 底特律、克里夫兰和多伦多）。 决定谁将移往东区可能会有一场长期的争论，但这些事实似乎让明尼苏达成为最合乎逻辑 的选择。 What impact could expansion have on NBA playoffs and NBA Cup formats? As far as the playoffs go, bumping up to 32 teams shouldn't change anything at all. Ten teams would qualify for the postseason, six directly and four into the play-in tournament. Six teams, rather than five now, would go directly to the draft lottery. Going up to 32 teams, however, would potentially result in positive changes for the NBA Cup. Currently, the league splits the tournament's group stage into six groups of five -- meaning it can't have every team play on the final day of group play, because there are odd numbers of teams in each group. A 32-team pool would allow the NBA to mirror the 32-team FIFA World Cup format: eight groups of four teams, each of which would play each other once. Then, the NBA could either have 16 teams advance to the knockout portion of the tournament, taking the top two teams from each group (like the World Cup does), or it could have each group winner advance and have the same knockout stage format it does now. 扩编对 NBA 季後赛和 NBA 盃形式有什麽影响？ 就季後赛而言，增加到 32 支球队应该不会改变任何事情。10 支球队将获得季後赛资格 ，6 支直接晋级，4 支进入附加赛。进入选秀抽签的球队将从目前的 5 支增加到 6 支。 然而，增加到 32 支球队可能会为 NBA 盃带来积极变化。目前，联盟将小组赛分为 6 组 、每组 5 队，这意味着无法让每支球队都在小组赛最後一天比赛，因为每组都是奇数队 。 32 队的规模将允许 NBA 复制 32 队制的 FIFA 世界盃模式：8 个小组、每组 4 队，每 队进行一次循环赛。然後，NBA 可以让 16 支球队晋级淘汰赛阶段，取每组前两名（如世 界盃所示）；或者让每组第一名晋级，维持目前的淘汰赛形式。 Will there be rule changes from previous expansions? The NBA is expected to take a close look at the entire process of expansion -- for example how an expansion draft would work to restrictions teams would have on spending in their initial years of existence to what the rules governing their draft picks would be -- before a formal vote to expand would take place. The league will be balancing both not making it so difficult on the incoming teams that they have no chance to compete for years, but also not giving them a giant leg up on their competition by walking in with a clean slate to start working from. There will be robust discussions over the next few months about what all this will look like. 扩编规则会与之前的不同吗？ 预计 NBA 会在正式扩编投票前，仔细审视扩编的整个过程——例如：扩编选秀如何运作 、球队在成立初期的支出限制，以及规范其选秀权的规则。 联盟将在两者之间取得平衡：既不能让新加入的球队太难生存以至於多年无法竞争，也不 能因为给予一张乾净的白纸来操作而让他们相对於竞争对手拥有巨大优势。未来几个月将 针对这些具体细节进行深入讨论。 How could the expansion draft work? During the 2004 expansion that brought in the Charlotte Bobcats (now Hornets), existing NBA teams were allowed to protect up to eight players under contract for the next season from being selected. Past expansion draft rules required that a team had to leave at least one player unprotected, even if the team had fewer than eight players under contract heading into the offseason. Those with options to become a free agent count toward that total, and, if selected, the player's former team would receive a trade exception in the amount of that player's 2028-29 salary. Teams were also allowed to protect players who could become restricted free agents, but past expansion draft rules did not transfer RFA status to the expansion team. The drafting team would be at risk of losing a player for nothing. (However, the player would not be allowed to re-sign with his original team.) In past expansion drafts, teams were allowed to select only one player from each existing NBA franchise. There were no two-way players in 2004, so the league will need to determine if they can be protected in a future expansion draft. Every two-way player whose contract is up normally becomes a restricted free agent. One thing to point out is that the NBA and NBPA would be operating under the current collective bargaining agreement, which runs through the 2029-30 season. There is a provision however that allows either side the option to terminate the CBA on June 30, 2029, if there is notice given on or before Oct. 15, 2028. 扩编选秀可能如何运作？ 在 2004 年引入夏洛特山猫（现黄蜂）的扩编中，现有的 NBA 球队被允许保护下个赛季 合约内的最多 8 名球员不被选走。 过去的扩编选秀规则要求，即使一支球队进入休赛期时合约内的球员少於 8 人，也必须 至少留出一名球员不设保护。拥有球员选项成为自由球员的人也计入该总数，如果被选 中，该球员的原球队将获得等同於该球员 2028-29 赛季薪资金额的交易特例。 球队也被允许保护可能成为受限制自由球员（RFA）的球员，但过去的扩编选秀规则并未 将 RFA 身份转移给扩编球队。选人的球队将面临白白失去球员的风险（不过，该球员不 被允许与原球队重新签约）。 在过去的扩编选秀中，球队被允许从每支现有的 NBA 球队中仅选择一名球员。 2004 年时还没有双向球员，因此联盟需要确定他们在未来的扩编选秀中是否可以被保护 。每位合约到期的双向球员通常会成为受限制自由球员。 需要指出的一点是，NBA 和 NBPA 将在目前的劳资协议（CBA）下运作，该协议将持续到 2029-30 赛季。然而，有一项条款允许任何一方在 2028 年 10 月 15 日或之前发出通知 的情况下，於 2029 年 6 月 30 日终止 CBA。 What can be learned from previous expansion drafts? In 1995, the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies alternated picks until they selected one player from each of the other 27 existing NBA franchises. The two teams had a coin toss to determine which would select first. The Grizzlies won the toss but chose to defer, giving them the second pick in the expansion draft. Because of that, the Grizzlies got to choose higher than the Raptors in the 1995 NBA draft. The Raptors finished the expansion draft with 14 players and Grizzlies selected 13. In 2004, Charlotte could have selected 29 players (one from each team) in the expansion draft but chose 19. The Charlotte front office took an approach in 2004 of selecting players who were restricted free agents. Out of the 19 players Charlotte selected (a minimum 14 was required), nine were restricted free agents. The only one of those nine who re-signed with Charlotte was Tamar Slay. The standard roster rules during the regular season and offseason will likely apply: A team can carry up to 21 players in the offseason and 18 (including three on two-way contracts) once the regular season begins. 从之前的扩编选秀中可以学到什麽？ 1995 年，多伦多暴龙和温哥华灰熊交替挑选，直到他们从当时现有的 27 支 NBA 球队中 各选出一名球员。 两队透过掷硬币决定谁先挑选。灰熊赢得了掷硬币但选择延後，让他们在扩编选秀中获得 第二顺位。正因如此，灰熊在 1995 年的 NBA 选秀中获得了比暴龙更高的顺位。 暴龙在扩编选秀结束时选了 14 名球员，灰熊则选了 13 名。 2004 年，夏洛特本可以在扩编选秀中选择 29 名球员（每队一名），但最终选择了 19 名。2004 年夏洛特管理层采取的方法是选择受限制自由球员。夏洛特选择的 19 名球 员中（最少要求 14 名），有 9 名是受限制自由球员。这 9 人中唯一与夏洛特重新签约 的是 Tamar Slay。 例行赛和休赛期的标准名单规则可能适用：球队在休赛期可携带最多 21 名球员，一旦例 行赛开始则为 18 名（包括三名双向合约球员）。 How do expansion teams factor into the leaguewide draft? The NBA has slotted each expansion team in the first round, with Vancouver selecting sixth and Toronto seventh in 1995 and Charlotte picking fourth in 2004. In that draft, the Bobcats traded up with the Los Angeles Clippers to get the second overall pick (Emeka Okafor). None of the recent expansion teams have been eligible for the No. 1 pick in their first year. When the Raptors and Grizzlies entered the league, they were also ineligible for the No. 1 pick in their second season. The Raptors won the draft lottery in 1996, but were unable to pick first, so the No. 1 pick went to the Philadelphia 76ers (who drafted Allen Iverson). 扩编球队如何参与全联盟选秀？ NBA 已将每支扩编球队安排在第一轮，1995 年温哥华选中第六顺位、多伦多第七，2004 年夏洛特选中第四。在那次选秀中，山猫队与洛杉矶快艇队进行交易，换取了榜眼签（ Emeka Okafor）。 最近的扩编球队在第一年都没有资格获得状元签。当暴龙和灰熊进入联盟时，他们在第二 个赛季也没有资格获得状元签。暴龙在 1996 年赢得了选秀抽签，但无法挑选第一名，因 此状元签归属费城 76 人（他们选中了 Allen Iverson）。 How could the salary cap work for expansion teams? Each expansion team has to work within a reduced salary cap for its first two seasons. In July 2004, the Bobcats had $17.6 million in player salaries and were $11.8 million below the $29.4 million salary cap at the start of free agency. If an expansion team was entering the league for the 2028-29 season, using that 66.6% figure, that team would be working with a salary cap of $121.9 million, compared with a projected $183 million cap for the league's 30 existing franchises. The team would have 80% of the salary cap available the following season, and the full cap available for Year 3. An expansion team would be required to spend 90% of its lower $121.9 million salary cap by the first day of the regular season to reach the league-mandated salary floor. Teams can select a player in the expansion draft and then waive him without his salary counting against the cap, with that money still applying to the salary floor. 扩编球队的薪资上限如何运作？ 每支扩编球队在前两个赛季必须在缩减的薪资上限内运作。2004 年 7 月，山猫队的球员 薪资为 1,760 万美元，在自由市场开始时比 2,940 万美元的薪资上限低了 1,180 万美 元。 如果一支扩编球队在 2028-29 赛季进入联盟，使用 66.6% 的比例计算，该球队的薪资上 限将为 1.219 亿美元，而联盟现有 30 支球队的预计上限为 1.83 亿美元。该球队在下 个赛季将拥有 80% 的薪资上限，并在第三年获得完整的上限。 扩编球队被要求在例行赛第一天前支出其较低的 1.219 亿美元薪资上限的 90%，以达到 联盟规定的最低薪资线（Salary Floor）。球队可以在扩编选秀中选择一名球员然後裁掉 他，其薪资不计入上限，但这笔钱仍计入最低薪资线。 ====================================懒人包==================================== 1.下周董事会将针对 2028-29 赛季增加西雅图与拉斯维加斯两支球队进行投票，但此投 票不是具约束力的决议。 2.虽然股权会被稀释，但预估高达 70 亿至 100 亿美元的扩编费（不需与球员分成，每 位老板将立即收到 5 亿美元）是现任老板们同意扩编的主因。 3.联盟内部普遍认为扩编已不可避免，正式决议最快可能在今年 7 月的拉斯维加斯夏季 联赛期间达成。 4.球员对扩编无决策权，但由於将增加 30 至 36 个工作机会，球员公会（NBPA）抱持高 度支持。 5.重返西雅图旨在纠正 2008 年超音速队迁走的历史错误，并将收回「超音速」之名与过 往队史纪录，雷霆队则需将相关荣誉（如 1979 冠军）交还。 6.拉斯维加斯的加入是很容易的决定，其早已成为 NBA 非正式的第 31 座城市，且近年 在职业体育产业（NFL、NHL、WNBA）发展极为迅速。 7.虽然墨西哥城、堪萨斯城等曾被讨论，但目前皆无法撼动西雅图与拉斯维加斯的领先地 位。 8.由於新球队皆位於西部，明尼苏达灰狼因地理位置最有机会被移至东区。 9.季後赛模式预计不变，但 32 队规模将使 NBA Cup 能完美复制 FIFA 世界盃的小组赛 机制（8 组、每组 4 队）。 10.联盟将研拟新规则，平衡「新球队竞争力」与「现有球队资产保护」，届时会举行扩 编选秀供新球队挑选受保护名单外的球员。 11.依往例扩编球队前几年通常不具备获得状元签（No. 1 Pick）的资格，且在新人选秀 会的顺位会被固定在首轮中段。 12.扩编球队前两年的薪资上限会按比例缩减，首年约为正常上限的 66.6%、次年为 80% ，第三年恢复正常。 --

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