小弟刚开始在学事前与事後分配 也许是观念还不够熟的关系 刚写习题就解不出来，请好心大大指点迷津 题目: Suppose that the number of defects on a roll of magnetic recording tape has a Poisson distribution for which the meanλis either 1.0 or 1.5, and the prior p.f. ofλis as follows: ξ(1.0)=0.4 and ξ(1.5)=0.6. If a roll of tape selected at random is found to have three defects, what is the posterior p.f. ofλ? 目前有想到先把Poisson分配的机率函数写出来，然後再来就不知道怎麽下手了 有看过ξ(θ|x)的式子为ξ(θ|x)= f(x1|θ)...f(xn|θ)ξ(θ)/gn (x) 不过现在不知道fn (X|θ)就是直接把3代入Poisson的式子吗? 觉得自己思绪有点混乱或是观念不清，还请大家帮忙，谢谢QQ --

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