http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/18/4001958/delmon-young-phillies-prospec t-retrospective 选秀状元杨大猛鸟掉的过程 我不求甚解 只翻大意 有错请指正 The Even More Curious Case of Delmon Young Last week we look at former top prospect Reid Brignac and his failure to develop properly as a hitter. Today we turn to another ex-Tampa Bay Ray, Delmon Young, who has been one of the biggest prospect disappointments over the last decade. What was he like as a prospect, what went wrong, and what might we expect from the future? Let's take a look. 上礼拜john讨论Reid Brignac养成失败的案例 这礼拜改讨论杨大猛 过去十年最令人 失望的大物之一 Delmon Young was the first-overall pick in the 2003 draft, out of high school in Camarillo, California. The younger brother of major league veteran Dmitri Young, Delmon was considered to be a better athlete than his sibling, featuring excellent power with a strong feel for hitting, a very good throwing arm, and slightly above average speed. 光芒2003选的高中生状元 Dmitri Young 的弟弟,比哥哥体能更棒 优秀的炮瓦 很好的打击 强肩 稍优於平均的速度 He signed too late to make his pro debut that summer, but he went to the Arizona Fall League and hit a stunning .417/.451/.625 in 15 games against much older competition. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2004 book, noting that he had a few plate discipline issues to work through, but being impressed with his "immense ability." I ranked him as the Number 16 hitting prospect in baseball entering 2004. 当年比较晚签约 在AFL 15场打出.417/.451/.625 当年因为有本垒纪律差的问题John给他 B+(2004)是当时排16名打击新秀 Young had no problems in 2004, hitting .320/.386/.536 with 25 homers, 115 RBI , 54 walks, 120 strikeouts in 513 at-bats for Low-A Charleston, with 21 steals in 27 attempts. He drew rave reviews for his power, with his bat speed compensating for a mild issue with selectivity. He showed a good arm, but scouts felt he would lose his running speed as he got older. I loved the bat and gave him a Grade A- entering 2005, writing that he wasn't "a perfect prospect" but that his offensive upside was among the best in the game. I had him as the Number Four hitting prospect. 2004在低阶1A打hitting .320/.386/.536 with 25 homers, 115 RBI, 54 walks, 120 strikeouts in 513 at-bats 27'尝试盗垒 成功21次 强大的炮瓦与挥棒速度弥补选球的 不足 不错的臂力 而速度方面一般会认为会因年纪变大渐渐变慢 2005年John认为 他虽然不是完美的新秀 但因为棒子够大支 给他A- 当年排他第4名的打击新秀排名 Skipped up a level to Double-A to open '05, Young hit .336/.386/.582 with 20 homers, 25 steals, 25 walks, and 66 strikeouts in 330 at-bats for Montgomery. Promoted to Triple-A in July, he hit .285/.303/.447 with six homers, four walks, and 33 strikeouts in 228 at-bats. Scouts continued to praise his bat speed, power, and ability to use his running speed on the bases. Triple-A pitchers got him to chase stuff outside the zone, though overall he held his own at age 19, a great sign for his future. He also toned up his body, losing 20 pounds of baby fat and adding strength. 05年跳到2A打怪 缴出.336/.386/.582 with 20homers, 25 steals, 25 walks, and 66 strikeouts in 330 at-bats 七月升上3A 缴出 .285/.303/.447 with six homers, four walks, and 33 strikeouts in 228 at-bats 球探还是很欣赏他的挥棒速度 炮瓦 垒间 的破坏力 3A投手尝试用好球带外面的球让他追打,但即使如此他还是缴出不错的成绩 对一个19岁的小子 是个好现象 他还减重20磅婴儿肥并增加力量 There were some negative signs though. Aside from the spotty plate discipline in Triple-A, he got into trouble for chest-bumping an umpire in April, leading to a brief suspension. He was also vocally displeased when the Rays didn't promote him to the majors in September. His work ethic on the field wasn't questioned and the general idea was that he just needed to grow up a little bit. 但有些负面消息 他在3A因好球带的问题用胸部撞裁判而遭到禁赛(你又不是波霸) 又放话不爽光芒不在9月升他上MLB 他在场上的努力没人质疑 只是"小朋友grow up好吗??" I gave him a Grade A and rated him as the top hitting prospect in baseball entering 2006, banking a lot on age-relative-to-league to compensate for his remaining flaws. John给他A评价 是当年第一名的打击新秀 即使有选球的缺陷 但毕竟在3A相对是非常年轻 的年纪 Returned to Triple-A to open 2006, he got off to a bad start when he threw his bat in late April, hitting an umpire and drawing a 50-game suspension. He was excellent when on the field, hitting .316/.341/.474 with 22 steals, 15 walks, and 65 strikeouts in 342 games in Triple-A. He received a major league trial and performed well, hitting .317/.336/.476. 2006在3A开始因拿球棒丢裁判被禁赛50场 但随後缴出.316/.341/.474 with 22 steals, 15 walks, and 65 strikeouts in 342 AB(这里应该是打数吧 JOHN写错) 之後被升上 大联盟缴出 .317/.336/.476. Plate discipline remained the big issue: he drew just one walk against 24 strikeouts in 126 major league at-bats. However, when you're hitting .317/.336/.476 in the bigs at age 20, people cut you some slack. His natural talent was so good, it appeared to compensate for the flaws in his approach, and it was felt (hoped? assumed?) that he would make the necessary adjustments to truly make the sky the limit. I gave him another Grade A for 2007, writing that "informed observers believe that Delmon is young and arrogant, but he's not stupid, he basically just needs to grow up a little bit." 本垒纪律依然是问题 在大联盟126个打席只有一个保送 被三振24次 但毕竟才20岁 又打出.317/.336/.476 他的天赋实在够棒足以去弥补他的缺点 足以让他去做调整 他的天花板直飞天际 2007年John给他A的评价 有些人观察认为他年轻却自傲 但他不笨 只是需要成熟点 Young played every day (literally, 162 games) for the Rays in 2007, hitting .288/.316/.408 with 38 doubles and 13 homers. His strike zone judgment was quite weak, resulting in a 26/127 BB/K, and his overall production was disappointing with a 91 OPS+, 88 wRC+. He was also somewhat disappointing defensively, and was noticeably slower than two years in the past. He was only 21, but the Rays soured quickly and traded him off to the Minnesota Twins in the Matt Garza deal. 杨大猛在2007年打满162场 缴出.288/.316/.408 with 38 doubles and 13 homers. 对好球带的判断太差 只有26BB 被K 127次 91 OPS+, 88 wRC+有点令人失望 守备也是令人失望 速度比两年前慢很多 他只有21岁 但光芒马上把他交易到双城 换来Matt Garza Young tread water in '08 and '09 (OPS+ marks of 100 and 92), with sagging defense, his hitting held back by poor plate discipline. In 2010 he was much more effective, hitting .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers and 46 doubles, with a 124 OPS+ at age 24. 杨大猛08跟09打 OPS+ 100跟92 速度也渐渐变慢 他的打击被糟糕的选球拖累 10年打得好多了 .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers and 46 doubles, with a 124 OPS+ at age 24 However, as you know, he couldn't maintain it. Young hit just .268/.302/.393 (OPS+90) in 2011 and was dumped on the Detroit Tigers for very little. '12 was no better: .267/.296/.411, with even more off-field turmoil. 但他无法维持这样的好成绩 11年.268/.302/.393 OPS+ 90 12年也没比较好 .267/.296/.411 甚至在场外还惹更多风坡 Overall, in 880 major league games, Young has hit .284/.317/.425, OPS+98, wRC+ 96. His career WAR is a mere 0.8, thanks in great measure to very poor defense. 整体在大联盟 880场 .284/.317/.425, OPS+98, WRC+96 生涯WAR只有0.8 因被糟糕的防守 拖累 So what happened here? I don't think it is a secret: Young just hasn't made consistent adjustments and never gained adequate command of the strike zone. He got away with this in the minors due to his immense natural talent, but major league pitchers find holes that minor league pitchers can't. Delmon has also lost speed and athleticism compared to where he was four years ago, which has been deadly for his defense. Makeup has obviously been an issue as well; getting into a drunken fight while yelling anti-Semitic slurs isn't calculated to make you popular. 所以到底怎麽回事?? 很明显在於无法调整好球带 在小联盟可以靠他的天赋弥补 但在大联盟 投手会从打者找出 小联盟投手找不到的弱点 杨大猛更是失去四年前的速度跟运动能力 对他的守备是一大致 命伤 在场外还常闹事 如喝醉呛反犹太等等 Young's blemishes were apparent in the minors, but he was a devastating hitter in the minors even with his flaws, and just about everyone (including me) assumed that he was young enough to overcome his issues. However, while the age-relative-to-league principle is a very important factor for prospect analysis, it is just one among many. ARTL assumes that a player can and will make changes to address flaws that get exposed against better competition. Young couldn't do that, for whatever reason. 杨大猛的缺点在小联盟就很明显 但是打击实在太猛足够去掩盖他的缺点 几乎每个人 包含John Sickles都认为他可以克服缺点 相对年纪轻的原则是这样认为的一大因素 ARTL认为一个选手在面对更高层级时会针对他的缺点做调整 但杨大猛办不到 Is there any hope? Young is still only 27. Signed with the Phillies as a free agent, he's reportedly in better condition this spring, although he's likely going to open the season the DL with ankle problems. 他还有希望吗 他才27岁 费城人签下他 报导他春训状况维持得不错 但可能开季因为脚踝 受伤挂DL His Bill James Sim Score list through age 27 is weird: Jeff Francoeur Claudell Washington Carlos May Al Oliver Harold Baines (has a case for HoF) Carl Yastrzemski (HofF) Nick Markakis Roberto Clemente (HofF) Ken Keltner Dave Winfield (HofF) Bill James Sim Score对他的预测 有点怪 当中有三个HOF名将 一个有机会进HOF 及不 错的Markakis Don't get excited here; Sim Score doesn't adjust well between extreme hitting or pitching eras, and the Hall guys were all considerably better than Young when context is accounted for. On the other hand, it is interesting that we have sabermetric whipping boy Jeff Francoeur at the very top of the list. Washington is a fair comp: he was quite toolsy as Young is/was and was considered rather disappointing for much of his career, but he also played in the majors for 17 seasons and turned into a useful role player. Given his age, it is possible that Young could still have a solid career along Washington/good role player lines. I wouldn't expect more than that, and he'll need good health and a more mature approach for that to happen. 因为年轻 或许杨大猛有机会可变成像Washington 不错的Role player 但我不会其期待 他变得比这样更好 并且他需要维持健康 变得更成熟 LESSON LEARNED: Age-relative-to-league is just one factor among many. Plate discipline matters. Makeup matters. Lesson learned:年纪相对年轻只是许多因素当中的一个考量 选球是有影响的 Makeup也是 ADDITIONAL THOUGHT: Is it a coincidence that both Young and Brignac came up through the Rays system and both foundered due to strike zone problems? Additional Thought: 杨大猛跟Brignac的选球问题刚好发生在光芒农场 这只是巧合吗? 有错请指正 -- ※ 编辑: alex710707 来自: 211.73.186.52 (02/19 06:21) ※ knoxvillt:转录至看板 Rays 02/19 08:51 ※ 编辑: alex710707 来自: 211.73.186.52 (02/19 11:44)