B.J. Upton Now Differently Confounding http://ppt.cc/WpRN by Jeff Sullivan - September 10, 2012 Things to know before we proceed with this article about B.J. Upton: 关於B.J Upton 有些事情在阅读下列文章前要了解: (1) B.J. Upton is set to become a free agent after the end of this season, and he is newly 28 years old. (1)B.J今年球季结束後将成为FA 他今年28岁 (2) Yesterday, in the last game of a series between the Rays and the Rangers, B.J. Upton slugged three home runs. They were his 19th, 20th, and 21st home runs of the year. (2) 在光芒跟条子系列赛的最後一场 B.J 单场击出三响炮(19,20,21) I was tricking you before — this article about B.J. Upton began with the word "Things". Now let us move on to the rest of it! Upton is no stranger to transaction talk, and it's something of a minor miracle that he's still with the Rays considering how often he's been in the middle of trade rumors. Now people get to talk about him as a potential free-agent acquisition, and as a potential free-agent acquisition, Upton is as confusing as he's ever been. I mean, on the one hand, I guess he isn't confusing at all. He remains an everyday center fielder who is more than capable of handling the position. Here are Upton's wRC+ figures for the last three seasons: B.J转队的消息一直没有少过 但是都没有被光芒交易出去 看看近三年的wRC+ 2010: 113 wRC+ 2011: 115 2012: 113 [注]wRC+是根据wOBA来算出 再加上调整球场等 联盟平均是100 I bet I can guess how projection systems are going to view Upton going forward. But remember that Upton was the second overall pick in 2002, and remember that he's always seemed capable of more than he's done. Upton, like his brother, is blessed with more tools than you can keep in one shed, but he only very seldom puts them all to proper use. Additionally, below the surface, there have been changes, and it's those changes that I'm here to talk about. 我打赌我大概可以猜出预测系统对於B.J未来的表现 但请记得他是2002选秀探花 而且他似乎可以做出超过他目前所能做到的表现 B.J就像他的弟弟(Justin)拥有一身非常好的天份 但B.J目前却没完全展露出来 他目前有些改变 而这些改变将是我接下来谈的 I think the easiest way to lay this out is like so: five years ago, Upton finished with 93 unintentional walks and 134 strikeouts. That's a whole lot of patience, from a very young player. So far this season, Upton has 39 unintentional walks and 144 strikeouts. Forget about the different sample sizes and just focus on the ratios. Clearly, B.J. Upton has changed as a hitter. And the evidence suggests that he isn't done changing. 我觉得最简单去了解的方法是看过去 五年前 Upton球季成绩是 93BB(未含IBB) 134K 在年轻选手中 他是非常有耐心的 今年他只有39BB(未含IBB) 但是有144K 忘记那不同的样本大小 我们来看看比率 明显的Upton改变了 而且就目前观察还再持续改变 Here is a very terrible graphic I whipped up to compare B.J. Upton to Bobby Abreu. I selected Upton because this article is about Upton. I selected Abreu because he was the first guy who came to mind when I thought about a consistent veteran. I put part of Abreu's name in parentheses because he seems old enough to just go by Bob now. We look at three different plate-discipline statistics: 下列是个满可怕的图表 是用Upton跟Abreu来相比 会用Abreu是因为他是位非常稳定的老经验打者 我们来看看三种不同的数据(本垒板纪律XD) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/uptonabreu.png I warned you before that this was terrible. Upton's overall swing rate is on the rise, his first-pitch swing rate is on the rise, and his contact rate is going down. Bobby Abreu has been Bobby Abreu. The once selective Upton has become more and more aggressive, and still it continues. 嗯 看起来相当可怕 Upton的挥棒率持续升高 挥第一球的比率也升高 然後contact持续下降 Abreu看起来还是Abreu 看起来Upton的攻击慾望持续攀高 而且好像还没有停喔 Through August 10 of this season, Upton owned a .676 OPS. The free-agent-to-be wasn't doing anything to boost his value, and then on August 11, Upton hit two home runs. Upton hit three home runs yesterday, on September 10. FanGraphs leaderboards have a very handy “Last 30 Days” option in the pull-down menu for splits, and the last 30 days capture both August 11 and September 10. Upton has been streaking. Over the last 30 days, Upton has posted the fourth-highest wRC+ in baseball, at 193. He's right in between Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera, and that tends to be good company as offensive statistics are concerned. Yet at the same time, over the last 30 days, Upton has posted the very lowest contact rate in baseball, at 57 percent. The next-lowest belongs to Chris Carter, at 63 percent. Upton's hottest stretch at the plate by one statistic coincides with his coldest stretch at the plate by another. Not that contact rate is even close to being as important as wRC+, but this is weird. Upton has hit the crap out of the ball. At the same time he's posted a lower contact rate than Aroldis Chapman has allowed. 在8/10以前 Upton只有.676的OPS 这对即将成为FA争取下份合约的他 毫无帮助 然後8/11 他单场扛出两发HR 接着9/10单场三响炮 在FanGraphs leaderboards的最近30天里(8/11-9/10) Upton成绩狂奔 近30天 他的wRC+是193 就在Adrian Beltre跟Miguel Cabrera之间 但在这30天 Upton的Contact下降到57% 在这之上的是Chris Carter的63% contact跟wRC+的关系算是密切 但这麽低的Contact却有这麽高的wRC+ 满奇特的 As the Rays have scrambled back into the playoff race, Upton has done a lot to boost his value as a free agent, but even his value boost carries a major red flag. He's hit, and he's hit for power, but how much of that can continue if he keeps on swinging and missing? What is the story behind all of the swings and misses? 正当光芒在进军季後赛的路程中 Upton的火力让他的价值暴升(尤其是FA) 但他的表现事实上举了红旗 他打出了很多的HR 但他可以持续这样的表现? 尤其是在他持续降低的contact Let's break Upton's 2012 season down, splitting after August 10. A table: 我将Upton的成绩以8/10做为分界点 Split O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% Contact% 1st% OPS Through 8/10 29% 71% 50% 73% 44% 0.676 Since 8/11 35% 73% 53% 57% 52% 1.050 I can't stop staring at the recent contact rate. It is such a low contact rate. That is three whiffs for every seven swings. But one can't ignore the far right column, and one can't ignore that the numbers in the far right column correspond with increased aggressiveness in the other columns. Upton's swung at more balls, more strikes, more first pitches — more everything, and when he's hit the ball, he's pummeled the ball. He's hit the ball some. 我无法不去注意那Contact% 几乎是挥7次就会有3次挥空!!! 但是却也无法忽视那漂亮的OPS 他挥多更积极 但是球也飞的越远 Right now, what's important isn't B.J. Upton's free agency. Upton and the Rays are trying to get to the playoffs, and lately Upton has done a lot more helping than hurting. Over 28 games over those last 30 days, he’s hit 11 home runs and also stolen eight bases for good measure. But what matters for Upton's free agency is also what matters right now. And that's the question of: how good is B.J. Upton going to be? He's a tricky one to pin down. Some numbers suggest that right now he's locked in, and some numbers suggest the very opposite. Some numbers suggest that Upton is beginning to really tap into his abundant potential, and some numbers suggest that he's going to get exposed once pitchers figure out what he's doing. 现在最重要的不是Upton是不是FA Upton跟光芒正在为季後赛奋战 近30天的28场比赛他击出11发HR外加8次盗垒 问题是Upton到底能有多好? 各种数据指出不同的面相 有的好 有的坏 For the final month or so, the Rays will have a player who is very good, very frustrating, or somewhere in between. It'll probably be the same story for Upton after this last stretch is over and he finds a new home. I don't know what Upton's numbers are going to look like between now and the end of the year, but for a month he's seemingly been all-or-nothing to an extreme degree. B.J. Upton's hot streak has undeniably been a hot streak, but it's been a hot streak far different from most. 在球季的最後一个月 光芒将会有一个很强,很挣扎或是在两者其中的打者(Upton) 这种表现也会出现在球季後 或许在换个新家後 我完全无法预测Upton未来的成绩 他现在很烫 但这跟一般进入暴冲期的打者完全不同 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 1.171.112.236 ※ JakeMcGee:转录至看板 Rays 09/13 15:42