http://0rz.tw/354LM Comparing Carlos Zambrano to himself by dixieflatline on Aug 29, 2008 8:35 AM PDT 大Ｚ跟自己比一比 During Carlos Zambrano's last start I found myself chatting online with a Cubs fan in a large group of people and I made the comment that I was worried about his strikeout rate dropping the last few years. He answered that it was because Zambrano was throwing his sinker more. I wasn't so sure about this. Zambrano throws three different fastballs and their movements are very similar so differentiating between them real time is definitely not something I could do. I also took a quite peak at his groundball percentage and it literally hadn't changed in the past two years. Not that a ground ball percentage of nearly 47 percent is bad, it actually is quite good, but it hasn't changed in the last three years. In addition, he hadn't really been lowering the number of pitches he was throwing per plate appearance (3.8 this year 4.0 the previous two years). So why has his strikeout rate dropped from 8.9 per game in 2006 to 7.4 last year to 6.2 this year? Also why has his walk rate dropped from 4.9 per game in 2006 to 4.3 last year to 3.3 this year? If he really is throwing more sinkers early in the count then he likely should be getting more groundballs and definitely should be throwing fewer pitches per plate appearance. Let's try to make some sense of what is going on here. Carlos Zambrano上次先发时，我在网上跟一个小熊迷聊天，谈到我担心大Z的三振 率正逐年下降。小熊迷说：那是因为Zambrano现在投比较多Sinker。我对此感到存疑。 Zambrano会投三种不同的速球，而且有时位移非常相似，我实在无法准确地分辨出来。 我也看了一下他的滚地球比率，发现在过去2年没什麽变化。 滚地球比率47%左右，事 实上已经很不错了。另外，他对付每个打者所使用的球数也并未显着下降（今年3.8， 前两年4.0）所以究竟为何他的三振率从2006年的8.9K/G，去年的7.4K/G，一路下跌至 今年的6.2K/G？ 为何他的保送率也从2006年的4.9BB/G，去年的4.3BB/G，降至今年的 3.3BB/G？ 如果他真的投了比较多Sinker，滚地球应该会变多，而对每个打者使用的 球数应该会减少才对。我们来看看这到底是怎麽一回事…… Carlos Zambrano 的投球位移 2007 原图：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/24341/Carlos_Zambrano.gif 简易版： 垂 20┌──────────────────────── o Fastball 直 │ x Sinker 位 15├ o 　　　　　　　　　 　　 + Cutter 移 │ oo oo o+o+ = Slider ︵ 10├ o oooo++o + ++ + * Splitter 英 │ xooxooo+o+oo+++ ++ += 寸 5├ xxo x** ox +++ +++ += == = │ ︶ │ x xo*xo**x* +**+++++ *== * = │ 0├ x x xooxo** * ++* +* == **== == * │ │ x x* ** * * =*= === = │ -5├ ** * * * = == │ │ * = │ -10├ │ │ │ -15├ │ │ │ -20└──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘ -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 　　　水平位移（英寸） Starting with his 2007 movement chart we can see the jumble of fastballs. His four seam fastball is right in the middle which he throws at 94.5 MPH. It also doesn't have the rise of regular four seamers checking in at a tick under eight inches of vertical movement but a solid six inches of horizontal movement. This is certainly due to his lowered release point which is generally a tad lower than ¾. He is throwing this pitch 17 percent of the time more to lefties than righties (21 percent to 13 percent). 　　从2007年的位移图上，我们可以看到速球的交错区。他的四缝线速球投到94.5mph 时，刚好在区域的中间。它并不像一般的四缝线有8英寸的垂直上升位移，但有6英寸 的水平位移。这是由於大Z较低的放球点所导致，他比3/4的投球姿势还要稍微低一点。 他的投球中有17%是这种球路，而且对左打比较多（左打21%，右打13%）。　　 His sinker is a power sinker being thrown at 92 MPH and "rising" just under five inches. Notice this pitch has more vertical movement than the classic sinkerballers you think of like Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe. The reason for the is likely the extra velocity Zambrano is getting with his sinker. Both Webb and Lowe generally throw in the upper 80's so Zambrano is trading off increased speed for increased movement. Also because of lower arm slot this pitch really bores in to right handed batters as he generates just over eight inches of vertical movement. He is throwing the sinker 26 percent of the time slightly more often to righties than lefties (29 percent to 24 percent). 　　大Z的Sinker是强力Sinker，球速可以达到92mph，而且有5英寸以内的上升位移。 注意他的这个球种比传统的伸卡球投手：Brandon Webb和Derek Lowe，有更多的垂直 位移。这是由於Zambrano的球速比较快所导致，Webb和Lowe的伸卡球只有将近90mph。 也因为出手点较低，这个球种常往右打者的内侧钻。他的投球中有26%是Sinker，对右 打稍微比较多（左打24%，右打29%）。 Zambrano also throws a cutter which gets almost no press. This pitch only move two inches horizontally but almost seven inches vertically. He also throws this pitch quite hard checking in at 91 MPH on average. Despite basically nobody talking about it Zambrano threw this pitch the most of nay of his fastballs at 33 percent of the time and equally often to lefties and righties. That is very unusual as pitchers who do throw a cutter tend to throw it more to an opposite handed batter as the ball rides in more than a regular four seamer would. 　　Zambrano也会投Cutter。这个球种只有2英寸的水平位移，却有接近7英寸的垂直 位移。他催Cutter的球速也一样猛烈，均速可以达到91mph。 即使很少人讨论这个球 种，它却是Zambrano最常用的速球：占投球比例的33%，而且对左打和右打都差不多。 一个投手对反方向打者投这麽多Cutter，是很反常的事情。可能是因为他的Cutter比 四缝线速球有更多的位移。 Zambrano also throws a slider and a splitter with most of the sliders against righties and most of the splits to lefties like you would expect. He threw the splitter 14 percent of the time in 2007 and the slider 10 percent of the time. Despite a quite large difference in speed and movement between his splitter and sinker Zambrano actually grips the two pitches very similarly. Zambrano也投Slider跟Splitter。就如你所想的，Slider大多拿来对付右打者，而 Splitter则大多对付左打者。在2007年，他投了14%的Splitter，与10%的Slider。尽管 Splitter跟Slider的球速和位移都有很大的不同，Zambrano在这两种球路的使用和掌握 上，其实是非常类似的。 Carlos Zambrano 的投球位移 2008 http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/24344/Carlos_Zambrano.gif The first thing that jumps out at me is how his sinker has slightly diverged from his four seamer. His sinker now has more horizontal movement up to nearly 9½ inches and it also is sinking about a half inch more. He still is throwing this pitch at 92 MPH so that hasn't changed but with the added movement this clearly is a better pitch than it was last year. As a result he is throwing it more, nearly 38 percent of the time, which is a large increase. So if that Cubs fan is reading, you are reading you were right, more sinkers and better sinkers. 　　我的第一印象是：他的伸卡球已经和四缝线速球产生差异。他的Sinker现在有高达 9英寸的水平位移，而且多下沉了半英寸左右。他同样能把这颗Sinker催到92mph，但有 了更多的位移後，这个球种很明显地比去年强化了。理所当然地，他会想要多投一点。 大约占38%的投球比例，真是增加了不少。 如果之前那个小熊迷在看这篇文章，我必须 说：你是对的，大Z的Sinker不论质量都上升了。 　　 As a result, he is throwing his four seamer and his cutter less (11 percent and 24 percent respectively). He also isn't getting the same velocity he was with those pitches with his four seamer down one MPH and his cutter down half a MPH. That is kind of strange that he would lose a little velocity with those fastballs but keep the velocity on the sinker but that is what has happened. Also, his splitter and slider have changed places with him throwing his splitter 11 percent now and his slider 15 percent of the time. 当然，四缝线和卡特球的使用就相对的少了（4-seamer 11%，Cutter 24%）。这两 个球种的球速也有所下降，四缝线下降了1mph，Cutter则下降了0.5mph。这真的很怪， 他能保持Sinker的球速，另外两种速球却有些微的失速。同时，他的Splitter和Slider 也对换了角色，现在Splitter减至11%，Slider却增加为15%。 The other thing that kind of jumps out at you is how spread out his pitches are now. In 2007 everything was kind of nice and tidy and bundled together but in 2008 not only has his sinker spread away from his four seamer but his slider has become a smear instead of a cluster. What is going on here is as Zambrano adds or subtracts spin the slider breaks more, or less, horizontally. Normally when I see a pitcher who throws a pitch that is smeared out like that I question whether the pitcher is consciously doing that or if that spread is just due to lack of repeatability. Here though I think it is very clear that Zambrano is in control of this as he showed in 2007 that he can repeat his delivery and produce a nice compact cluster of sliders. Assuming this is the case this likely is a real weapon for Zambrano who can then throw the slider with little movement early in the count and throw the slider again late in the count when looking for a swing and a miss. If you look hard you can see similar spread in hit cutter and sinker as well though the spread is less pronounced there. 你可能会有一个印象：他现在的投球位移分布得更广了。2007年，各球种完美整齐 地各自群聚在一起。但在2008年，除了伸卡从四缝线分离出来之外，滑球的分布也更散 乱。这是因为Zambrano会藉着增减球的转速，来增加或减少Slider的水平位移。通常我 看到这样的投球分布，总会怀疑投手究竟是故意这麽做，或只是控球力变差了？但我想 Zambrano很显然地在控制之内，能像2007年那样反覆投出完美而精准的滑球。假设这才 是大Z真正的武器，他能在抢好球数时先投位移较少的滑球，等球数领先，试图诱使打 者挥棒落空，才把位移大的滑球投出来。你可以发现他的Cutter和Sinker也有类似的分 布现象。 So that was very interesting but how does this help us answer our questions we started with about the lowered strikeout and walk rate coupled with a tiny change in pitches per plate appearance and no change in his groundball rate. Well it is clear that Zambrano is using his sinker more but even still that sinker isn't a beat the ball into the ground sinker so while he is still getting solid ground ball numbers that is the reason the ground ball percentage hasn't gone up even though the sinker percentage has. 　　这非常有趣，但能帮助我们回答问题吗？大Z的三振和保送率都下降了，对每个打者 用球数有些微改变，但滚地球比率却没变。 很显然地Zambrano投了更多的Sinker，但这 颗Sinker并非让打者打成滚地球的Sinker。 所以就算Sinker的比率提高，滚地球也没有 变的更多。 What about the decreased walk rate and strikeout rate with nearly the same pitches per plate appearance? Well, in 2007 Zambrano was using his fastball and his cutter a lot as his strikeout pitch. In fact, 54 percent of the time he would throw either his fastball or cutter on 0-2 or 1-2. This year that percentage is down to 40 percent. Now he is throwing his splitter or his slider much more and if a batter lays off that pitch he Zambrano has to come back and throw more pitches. I wonder if the decreased velocity on his fastball and cutter are the issue here. High heat can be a very effective strikeout pitch but it tends to be even more effective if you can throw it 95 MPH. Zambrano is throwing strike one more often this year than last so he is getting in pitchers counts more often so he is walking less but then isn't closing the deal so the strikeouts have suffered and the pitch counts really haven't been impacted either. 那怎麽解释三振率和保送率的下降呢？在2007年，Zambrano用他的四缝线和卡特球 来当三振的球种。2好0坏或2好1坏时，有54%的机会他会投这两种速球。 但今年这个比 率已经降至40%。 现在他在这情况下，大都投Splitter或Slider来引诱打者。如果打者 放掉这球，大Z就必须用更多的球数来解决打者。 我怀疑这是否跟他4-seamer和Cutter 的失速有关？ 偏高速球是极有效率的三振武器，但如果你能投到95mph，它会更加有效 率！Zambrano今年比去年，更常抢下第一个好球数，球数领先的情况下当然保送变少了 。但却无法有效三振打者，使的投球数也无法变的更精简。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 124.8.19.176 ※ wingmouse:转录至看板 Cubs 08/31 01:19