作者imgkiller (无血之大戮)
看板Jeremy_Lin
标题[外絮]富士比:林可能是哈佛有史以来最蠢的毕业生
时间Thu Jul 19 04:28:35 2012
只翻译重点.
他会哈佛商学院学生的最好的case study:如果你的眼光不够远,你会损失无数的金钱,
和巨大的影响力。
一个世界级的行销机器应该就留在世界级的商业首都。就像他自己刚告诉杂志的,
如果可以选的话,他想留在纽约。
比起第一次的合约,多了五百万,这合约对尼克来讲,就变成了真正的毒药合约。尼克可
能要为这五百万多付三千万。
我可以理解为什麽火箭会提供这合约,但为什麽林书豪会拿这样的合约?
我只可以想出两个理由:
一个是财务的确定性。这是保证可以拿到的
但多拿了这五百万,就代表linsanity的终结。如果他留在纽约,只要他有上个季末表现
的80%,以纽约媒体和尼克队推销的功力,他保证可以有数千万的代言签约。
没有人在乎如果林带领山猫赢得大家的尊重。这不会令人感到兴趣。可口可热不会因此而
付他千万美金代言。
第二个是自我。
上次传言林不爽尼克.林在twitter上的模糊字句的推文 "probably not" true
跟典型的明星的回言很像"i am sorry if anyone was offened"
别人设想他想当球队的绝对核心(go-to-guy),而不想跟Melo和其他队友合作。
这些设想全部都伤害到他的名声。
大家喜欢他不是因为他是一个球星。
而是因为他曾经是一个失败者(underdog) 但他谦虚,而且他赢了。
他的选择 破坏了 媒体帮他曾经塑造的形象。
昨晚,主持人宣布林疯狂的正式终结。但更确切的说,林把这个可能会带来无限多黄金的
牌子,以五百万美金最蠢的价格贱卖了。
http://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2012/07/18/jeremy-lin-may-be-the-
dumbest-harvard-grad-ever/2/
Jeremy Lin May Be The Dumbest Harvard Grad Ever
Sorry for the harsh headline, but I’m having a hard time coming up with any
other conclusion. While I haven’t checked the Harvard core curriculum
lately, it must surely be light on math, psychology and logic, and completely
devoid of Marketing 101. How else to explain the self-destructive actions of
its most famous basketball alum, Jeremy Lin, who has taken the global
phenomenon known as Linsanity and doused it with kerosene.
After last night’s decision by the New York Knicks to let him walk to the
Houston Rockets, almost all of the analysis has focused on Knicks owner Jim
Dolan. He faced a vexing dilemma, given the back-loaded contract offer from
the Houston Rockets that would have forced the Knicks to effectively pay $50
million for Lin’s services three years hence. (My friend Howard Beck of the
New York Times provides a useful primer here.) How do you weigh Lin’s
basketball and marketing potential against a very small sample set (he’s
started all of 25 games in his career) and also against not just what he
would be paid, but the larger ramifications of his contract down the line?
Given that the adjectives associated with Dolan, backed up a dysfunctional
track record, generally include illogical, vindictive, paranoid and dumb (and
because I’m a lifelong Knicks fan, I’m being kind), he’s predictably being
ripped apart.
In the end, though, I’m more fascinated by the choices Lin made. Dolan will
be rich and reviled no matter what he does. Lin may have signed a big
contract, but he also just provided the folks at Harvard Business School with
a brilliant case study how to cost yourself millions of dollars and scads of
influence when you’re not looking at the big picture.
To review, the point guard’s scrub-to-star rise in February – Linsanity! —
has arguably been the best sports story of the year, played out on one of
the biggest stages, Madison Square Garden. But the NBA’s complicated labor
rules forced Lin to shop around his services in order to maximize his next
contract with the Knicks. At first, he did so brilliantly, according to
numerous reports, originally getting Houston to offer him roughly $5 million
for his first two years of his contract (the maximum anyone was allowed), and
then a $9 million balloon in the third year, with a team option for a fourth.
Various Knicks sources, including their coach, playing poker as deftly as a
late-night drunk at Circus Circus, announced that they would match it, and
that was presumably that. A global marketing machine would remain in the
global marketing capital, as had been his goal all along, Lin just told
Sports Illustrated.
And this where Lin flunked miserably. After the clumsy Knicks showed their
hand, Lin and Houston agreed to add another $5 million to his guaranteed
salary in third year – a true poison pill, since that extra $5 million would
cost the Knicks an extra $20 million or so, courtesy of the NBA’s punitive
new luxury tax, atop the effective $30 million bite they had already
internalized.
I get why Houston did it. But why did Lin, as an equal party to the new
offer, go along? I can only offer two theories:
Financial Certainty: With the revised offer, Lin guaranteed himself an extra
$5 million in his pocket, three years from now. That’s serious scratch for a
man who had been sleeping on his brother’s couch earlier this year. And
given legitimate worries that he was way overperforming during his magical 25
game coming out, taking the sure thing now makes some sense.
But why structure it in a way so punitive to New York? If it was all about
certainty, Lin could have instead tried to guarantee that fourth year (or
even a fifth year). At $9 million per, that’s way more downside protection,
yet spreading it out in a way that didn’t push the Knicks toward the fiscal
cliff.
As for the upside, forcing the Knicks to even consider ending his tenure in
New York is the truest definition of Linsanity. If Lin is even 80% as good as
he showed in flashes last season, fronting a very good, very hyped Knicks
team had the potential to bring him tens of millions in endorsements. But as
Steve Herz, who cuts celebrity endorsement deals as president of IF
Management previously told my colleague Tom Van Riper: “Lin leading the
Charlotte Bobcats back to respectability wouldn’t be that interesting. It’s
not something that Coca-Cola is going to play $10 million for.”
Insert “Houston Rockets” into that sentence, and you get Lin’s new
reality. Rather than the golden boy on an obsessed-over team in the world’s
media capital, he’s now an above-average player on a below-average team in a
low-profile city.
Yes, Yao Ming made the Rockets popular in China. It’s another reason why
Houston made a smart move here. But it doesn’t do much for Lin.
Ego: If you believe “sources close to Lin,” he was offended that the Knicks
didn’t court him pro-actively (ignoring the fact that the way the system was
set up, they needed to let someone else make an offer if he wanted more
money). Compounding matters, when he sent out a Tweet trying to clarify, Lin
said that such blind item stories are “probably not” true – the kind of
squishy response that conjures the classic celebrity “I’m sorry if anyone
was offended” apology.
Others have posited that he wanted to be the go-to guy on his team, versus
share with ball hog Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the star-laden Knicks.
Even speculation in these areas damages Lin’s brand. People didn’t fall in
love with Lin because he was a star player. They loved him because he’s an
underdog, he was humble and he won. The choice he just made, amid the circus
he helped create, undermines all of those attributes.
Last night, as I watched SportsCenter, the anchors declared these
developments as the formal “end of Linsanity.” But it’s more accurate to
say that Jeremy Lin sold it for a $5 million note three years from now – a
monumentally foolish price for a brand that could have been golden.
※ 编辑: imgkiller 来自: 166.248.8.142 (07/19 04:31)
1F:推 ab32110:纯嘘作者 我看他根本没搞懂前因後果吧 07/19 04:31
2F:推 Number41:感谢翻译,林书豪似乎没有要很多的代言 07/19 04:31
※ 编辑: imgkiller 来自: 166.248.8.142 (07/19 04:34)
3F:推 zzzdragon:要是他那麽看重名利 他根本不会去火箭 07/19 04:34
4F:→ zzzdragon:而且是尼克放弃他的 怎变成他抛弃尼克勒? 超好笑= = 07/19 04:35
5F:嘘 a0956359653:其实Lin只想认真打球而已! 07/19 04:40
6F:→ imgkiller:很多人想让他拿火箭第一次开的那份20m/3year+9m 07/19 04:40
7F:推 ab32110:火箭自己要改他能怎样.....尼克频频放话火箭提高很正常 07/19 04:41
8F:嘘 uwmtsa:他想赚钱早就代言上百种商品了 07/19 04:42
9F:推 lygreen:就说林书豪选火箭不是为了钱 这些记者都在跳针喔 07/19 04:43
10F:推 davideason:人红自然是非也多 这是一种"privilege" 不红也不会LIN 07/19 04:43
11F:推 Cornell:所以这篇其实是在说他没有像某些人说的那麽精啊XD 07/19 04:44
12F:→ davideason:一天到晚被这种脑包酸 阿我还想问作者 你哪间毕业的? 07/19 04:45
13F:→ davideason:尼克早就能先签 是自己爱赌的 愿赌又不服输 现在围剿林 07/19 04:47
14F:推 Cornell:我倒觉得这篇表面上是酸 实际上是想突显他的人格特质 07/19 04:49
15F:推 essendo:我也觉得这是反串欸XD 一个世界级的商业机器? XD 07/19 04:52
16F:→ essendo:这是从商学院追求财富的观点提出观点,正说明不是Lin的核心 07/19 04:53
17F:→ essendo:思考 07/19 04:53
18F:推 notgoodcow:他已经赚到很多哈佛的一辈子赚不到的钱 23岁... 07/19 04:53
19F:推 praylove49:他只是想要开心的打球,在尼克根本没有他表达意见的权利 07/19 04:54
20F:→ imgkiller:如果用金钱跟名声的角度来看,林留在尼克好得多 07/19 04:56
21F:推 davideason:LIN很多哈佛毕业的同学 现在应该还在还债吧 LIN 8m/y 07/19 04:57
22F:→ uwmtsa:如果他一直受伤呢?先拿先赢吧! 在纽约那种地方名声不一定好 07/19 04:58
※ 编辑: imgkiller 来自: 166.248.8.142 (07/19 05:09)
※ imgkiller:转录至看板 NBA 07/19 05:11
23F:→ lygreen:我怎麽看都觉得这篇很酸啊~先酸他爱钱~再酸他爱权 07/19 05:17
24F:推 Cornell:我的解读是 1.多拿五百万薪水,损失数千万代言 ->不在乎钱 07/19 05:32
25F:→ soffi:内容破绽百出...真想嘘这个作者.... 07/19 05:32
26F:→ Cornell:2.跑去火箭当老大,形象受损 ->不在乎形象 07/19 05:33
27F:推 praylove49:林怎麽做都会被讲话的 07/19 05:42
28F:推 reitina:富士比恐怕遭dolan入侵,拿钱帮尼克写反击文 07/19 05:48
29F:→ reitina:否则谁会问这麽蠢的问题? 07/19 05:49
30F:→ chin0505:媒体的丑态!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 07/19 06:15
31F:推 mackulkov:富比世 07/19 06:57
32F:→ gary886:如果他只是想赚钱 他早就接一大堆代言了 不过还是感谢翻译 07/19 07:02
33F:推 xsummerx:是反串吗?很多人酸他爱$,但这篇说若他要$就该留纽约 07/19 07:09
34F:→ xsummerx:除非他太蠢,但,有可能吗XD 07/19 07:10
35F:推 casko:Lin只想打球 要赚钱早就有机会接代言了 07/19 07:30
36F:推 plzsmile:他只是去一个真正需要他包容他的地方,NYK刚好不是。 07/19 07:40
37F:推 crastal:富比士也跟华尔街金融那些捧过雷曼兄弟LP的人一样还活在金 07/19 07:44
38F:→ crastal:融风暴前吗?打出上季80%的成绩就能延续林来疯,那里真的 07/19 07:45
39F:→ crastal:是纽约吗?他们应该来台湾好好学习怎麽当一个惯老板,英业 07/19 07:47
40F:→ crastal:达业绩创历史新高还嚷着要裁员,这才叫生意人!我认为LIN 07/19 07:48
41F:→ crastal:留在纽约的话,就算打出林来疯时期2000%的功力,只要输了 07/19 07:49
42F:→ crastal:一场,照要被酸到爆,不然怎麽叫Underdog? 07/19 07:50
43F:→ kixer2005:笔者完全不懂经济跟行销 回去重修边际效益 07/19 08:46
44F:→ vonnewman:这样讲太不公平了吧!要比校友成就应该是同一届的比 07/19 08:58
45F:→ vonnewman:跟林同年毕业的哈佛校友,有几人年薪比他高的?比他红的? 07/19 08:58
46F:推 zzzaaaqqq111:相信富士比 这种文章比较有公信力 大家认了吧 07/19 08:59
47F:→ vonnewman:在NY是比较容易红,但大家都知NY客也是最无情的 07/19 08:59
48F:推 newtypeL9:富士比这篇文章是没错,不过林看的东西跟他们完全不一样 07/19 09:04
49F:→ newtypeL9:这点他们可能到死都不会了解 07/19 09:04
50F:→ rock810:这个作者是假设LIN的表现有原来表现的80%...没表现的话呢 07/19 09:10
51F:推 phix:只要瓜瓜还在 lin只能得十分 去火箭 可能可以得二十分 07/19 09:14
52F:→ phix:反正打的好三年後尼克或许会签他回来 怕啥 07/19 09:14
53F:推 river2:林想赚钱的话就不会拒绝CAA了吧 07/19 09:17
54F:嘘 Hu5566:有人赔钱了吗 好爽 哈哈~ 07/19 09:43
55F:嘘 putare:笑话~~我看是纽约媒体才需要林吧!!林需要的不是linsanity 07/19 10:16
56F:→ FRX:纽约这种嗜血的鸟地方还是赶快离开比较好 07/19 10:18
57F:推 WongKarWai:那有史以来又有几个哈佛毕业生赚得了那麽多钱 07/19 10:26
58F:嘘 allmygod:无聊。尼克不提合约在先,难道叫球员去喝西北风?!加上 07/19 10:52
59F:→ allmygod:他不是完全为了钱,要接代言在那最红时候可以接很多。 07/19 10:53
60F:→ allmygod:富比士观点是错的,他的观点是以投资人方向去思考的 07/19 10:55
61F:推 uniquee:白痴文耶,就算讲商业面,对岸的赞助商更敢给,而且也不在乎 07/19 11:27
62F:→ uniquee:LIN在哪队 07/19 11:27
63F:嘘 DavidJam:纯嘘富比士 07/19 11:27
64F:→ guest001:反正到时候林低薪留在纽约没办法拿到千万代言费作者又不 07/19 11:29
65F:→ guest001:会帮忙补 07/19 11:29
66F:推 uniquee:讲难听点,不管他是哪国人,对岸的人就是爱他,他如果跟YAO一 07/19 11:30
67F:→ uniquee:样(影响力一定更大),有了对岸几亿人+亚裔..科科.Coca-Cola 07/19 11:32
68F:推 uniquee:最好不会屌他 07/19 11:34
69F:嘘 BigJ:林需要的不是钱,是尊重、珍惜与快乐打球的环境 07/19 12:05
70F:嘘 newtypeL9:富士比:不向钱看就是蠢 07/19 12:18
71F:嘘 vipailin:难道哈佛出来的都只知道钱吗 07/19 13:18
72F:嘘 User0:一开始说他爱钱现在又说他很蠢 07/19 13:22
73F:嘘 ab32110:补嘘一下 哈佛毕业的也没几个能在23岁传到那麽多前 07/19 14:23
74F:嘘 wuling1001:林堂堂一个篮球痴汉是能有多精 每天都在想篮球而已= = 07/19 14:57
75F:推 wuling1001:他要的只是一个信任他 尊重他的球队 做不到就少废话 07/19 15:00
76F:推 soniccsie:合约最後只爽到火箭 07/19 19:59
77F:推 jaykinki:富士比可能是有史以来最烂的杂志 07/19 20:00
78F:推 casper955033:从这篇文章看得出来Nicks真的很需要Lin XD 07/19 20:04
79F:→ casper955033:所以才会如此的生气 XD 07/19 20:04
80F:嘘 jaykinki:我又没嘘到= = 07/19 20:04
81F:嘘 guexx3:喔 07/20 05:48
82F:推 hadoo:其实这篇不是没有他的道理 希望豪哥和他的经济团队可以别让 07/20 13:17
83F:→ hadoo:这篇说的事work 07/20 13:17
84F:推 hadoo:少了纽媒的加持 但多了控球的机会 要场场都赢球才行啊!!!!!! 07/20 13:21
85F:推 hadoo:总之不管别人怎麽说 把球打好才是最重要的 07/20 13:31
86F:推 hadoo:休士顿唯一的缺点就是媒体不比纽约 剩下都是优点 这方面补足 07/20 13:59
87F:→ hadoo:应该会很强大~~~~~ 07/20 14:00
88F:→ hesione:point没错啊 只是结论错了 这完全证明lin就是为好好打球 07/21 12:00