作者是最近在媒体上很红的538.com网主Nate Silver. 这位老兄本来是在搞棒球统计，据说创造了一套模组可以 成功的预测棒球选手的表现。今年三月建了538.com，成功 的预测了民主党初选的结果，因此一炮而红。 他在民调解读跟分析上看来很有一套，最近才因为把左格比 民调批的体无完肤而惹的左格比老兄不太高兴。他的网站提供 的资讯还有一个特殊的地方，就是他不仅仅是把民调平均起来 呈现结果，他会把不同的民调做不同的加权(近期的民调加权 比较重)，再参考全国的民调趋势估计出各州两位主要候选人可 能的得票率，然後再按照程式模拟民调因为误差或采样错误而 产生的各种可能结果，来算出各候选人在各州的胜选机率如何。 ncyc大认为Silver的计算给马侃在FA 33%跟NC 41%对欧巴马的选 情过度乐观，是否如此我不清楚，事後也恐怕很难证实这估计是不 是过份有利於欧巴马。马侃如果明天早上拿下FA或NC， 你也不能说他不准，毕竟33%跟41%还是很有可能发生。 不过目前针对提前投票的选民的民调显示欧巴马在这两州的提前 投票动员有不小的领先优势，差距大概是15%以上。目前FA已经有 4,272,280位选民投完票，上届总票数的55.9%(上届提前投票的比 例36.1%)，NC有2,597,650位选民完成投票，上届总票数的73.1%( 上届提前投票的比例30.8%)。马侃需要在剩下未投票的选民中获 得大胜才能扳回局势。 当然你可以争论提前投票不过是让本来就会投你的选民早一点投给你 而已，毫无意义。不过对於打组织战的地面部队来讲，只要确认选民 早一刻把票投进去，他们就可以把这些选民的名字从动员名单上划掉 ，不用再浪费时间催促他们投票；在你的对手还在花工夫打电话催己 方阵营的忠实选民投票时，你可以把精力集中在其他意向不那麽坚定 的选票上。这或许会在极接近的选战中造成影响。从这点来看欧巴马 在这两州的胜算应该都至少稍大於50%。反驳的理论还是有，不过不论 哪种理论都只是对现象的主观诠释，再过十几个小时我们会知道结果。 http://www.newsweek.com/id/167186 What to Watch For An hour-by-hour guide to election night. In 2000 and 2004, the outcome of the presidential race was unknown into the wee hours of the morning (and indeed for several weeks thereafter in 2000). This time, it is possible that we will be able to guess the winner of the presidential race relatively early in the evening. Regardless, there will be plenty to watch Tuesday night, particularly for those who can appreciate a good slugfest in the Senate. And lest we count John McCain out, we need only remember the polling disasters that befell states like New Hampshire in this year's primaries. Here, then, is what I will be watching each hour on election night. 6 PM EST. Polls close in portions of Indiana and Kentucky. Traditionally, these are the first states to get called by the networks, spotting the Republicans a quick 19 points in the Electoral College. This year, however, is liable to be a little bit different. Indiana is far more competitive than usual, and is probably the state with the greatest disparity in ground games: the Obama campaign has 42 field offices open there, whereas McCain neglected the state entirely until recently. The responsible thing to do would be for the networks to hold off until at least 7 PM to project Indiana, when polls have closed in Gary and the northwestern part of the state just across the border from Chicago—where Obama hopes to rack up huge margins among black and working-class voters. If for some reason the state is called before 7 PM for John McCain, that probably means we're in for a long night. If, on the other hand, the state is called for Obama in the first hour after the polls close, that could indicate that the force of Obama's field operation has been underestimated, and that McCain is in for a catastrophically poor evening. (Speaking of which, Indiana's equivalent on the Senate side of things might in fact be Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell remains the favorite but where he could be vulnerable in the event of an anti-incumbent wave.) 7 PM EST. Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire. Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his path to victory is exceptionally narrow—he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, while holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoiding a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a failure to close out the state would suggest at best a more circuitous route to victory. As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we're really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain's favor. Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus. On the other hand, if there is any state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers, it's in New Hampshire, where nearly the entirely electorate is white and where Obama was famously upset by Hillary Clinton during the primaries. If McCain holds Obama to within about five points in New Hampshire —closer than any current polls—we may need to be worried about some sort of Bradley Effect. 7:30 PM EST. Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina. The dynamic to look for in these states involves early voting: more than twice as many people have voted early in North Carolina as did in 2004, and nearly three times as many in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio. Recent polling indicates that Obama may have a lead of 20-30 points among early voters in Ohio and a 10-20 point lead in North Carolina. If Republican turnout is at all depressed on Election Day—because of anything from bad weather to low morale—that may be too large a deficit for McCain to make up. 8 PM EST. Polls close in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Missouri. Use caution when interpreting the results from these three states; Missouri in particular is notorious for nearly having been called prematurely both in the 2006 senate race and in this year's Democratic primary. In each state, Barack Obama will rack up huge vote totals in the cities (Philadelphia, Detroit and St. Louis respectively) while trying to hold his own in the rest of the state. If the city numbers come in first, Obama's margins will be exaggerated. If the rural numbers come in first, Obama's prospects will be much better than they appear. But Pennsylvania in particular is the one to watch. If Barack Obama holds onto Pennsylvania—the only state where John McCain seems to have been closing the gap over the last week of the campaign—then winning virtually any red state (Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri) would probably clinch the election for him. 9 PM EST. Polls close in Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Wisconsin and Minnesota should be called fairly quickly for Obama; if they aren't, that's a sign that something has gone truly wrong for the Democratic ticket. New Mexico looks like a safe Obama-state too, but since its vote-counting is notoriously slow, it may take longer to call. The key number to watch in Minnesota should be the difference between Obama's margin of victory and Al Franken's tally in his Senate race against Norm Coleman. If Franken is staying within 5-7 points of Obama as the vote begins to roll in— say, for example, Franken leads by 2 while Obama leads by 7—then Obama's coattails should carry Franken into the Senate. If not, the race may be Norm Coleman's to lose. Colorado, meanwhile, is the last of what I'd characterize as this year's "Big Three" states (the others are Pennsylvania and Virginia). If Pennsylvania and Virginia have split their votes (and Obama hasn't picked up Ohio or Florida), then Obama probably wins if he wins Colorado, and loses if he doesn't. 10 PM EST. Polls close in Nevada, Iowa, Montana and New York. This is the earliest point at which the race might be officially called for Barack Obama—there just aren't enough electoral votes out there, even if he's swept every swing state, to get him to 270 until New York's 31 come in. But assuming that we don't know the outcome of the election by this time, Nevada, where Obama has expanded his lead and where much of the state has already voted, could be Obama's ace in the hole—possibly offsetting a loss in Pennsylvania if paired with other pickups like Colorado and Virginia. The key area to watch in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno), which John Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 but where the Obama campaign has registered thousands of new voters. If Obama wins Washoe, that means the state—and probably the country— is his. 11 PM EST. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. None of these states are in play in the presidential contest this year. The status of the race, however, could have a potential impact on California's Proposition 8, which seeks to strike down same-sex marriage. If Obama appears as though he's headed toward a landslide victory, crestfallen conservatives might not bother heading for the polls to vote for Prop 8. Finally, even if the presidential race has been called by that point, Democrats looking for a little schadenfreude may want to stay up late until the midnight poll close in Alaska, where Ted Stevens is almost certain to be bounced from his Senate seat by Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Should the Democrats pull out an upset in Georgia or Kentucky, it may be Stevens' seat that gets them over the top to a 60-man majority. Nate Silver is the creator of FiveThirtyEight.com, a popular political blog. 本文愿意开放自由转载 -- Obama doesn't need extra votes, especially votes in safe bule states like California or Vermont. Vote Nader, vote your conscience, give those arrogant Democratics who take your votes for granted a warning! --

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