标题:INSTANT VIEW - Russian president orders stop to Georgia ops Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:23am EDT (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday he had ordered troops to stop military operations in Georgia before he was due to meet French President Nicholas Sarkozy for peace talks in Moscow. 俄国总统礼拜二说他命令於乔治亚的部队停止军事行动。此命令於他会见法国总统 Sarkozy前发布。 Following are comments from political, economic and security analysts. 以下是政治、经济、安全分析师的评论。 ABDULLAH GUL, PRESIDENT, TURKEY 土耳其总统 "We see Russia's decision to stop military operations in Georgia as a positive development. I hope we see a ceasefire confirmed by the two sides as soon as possible. Implementation of this decision is very important." 「我们解读俄国停止於乔治亚的军事行动为正面发展。我希望两方会尽快确定停火协议。 落实停火是很重要的。」 "Turkey will continue its efforts for the reinstitution of peace and stability in the region. We attach importance to Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty." 「土耳其会持续在当地帮助恢复和平与稳定。乔治亚的主权和领土完整对我们来 说很重要。」 "A Caucasian stability pact idea is important in the medium term. We have similar efforts in Middle East too." 「高加索稳定协约这个主意对中期来说很重要。我们在中东也有同样的努力。」 JONATHON HAYES, ANALYST, JANE'S STRATEGIC ADVISORY SERVICE 詹氏战略顾问服务分析师 "Russia's next steps will be to push for the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia." 「俄国下一步会推动南奥赛梯和Abkhazia的认同。」 "The loss of these regions would be an end to (Saakashvili's) political career, so impending negotiations over the breakaway regions will be extremely difficult." 「损失这些区域代表Saakashvili的政治生涯结束了，接下来关於那两个分离的区域 的协商会非常困难。」 "Georgia is clearly the major loser here. However, American power and its perception throughout the world has also suffered. 「乔治亚明显是最大输家。美国力量和国际观感也受到打击。」 "Russia wins well beyond what is going on in Georgia. President Putin struggled for eight years to make Russia into an international player, but most Moscow was powerless to move against U.S. and European policies in the past (missile defence, NATO expansion, Iraq war, and Putin perceives the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a tit for tat response to the western recognition of Kosovo)." 「俄国赢得的远比在乔治亚境内得到的多。普丁八年来费尽心思让俄国重新成为 国际玩家，但莫斯科对美国和欧洲政策一直无法应对（包括飞弹防御、北约扩张、 伊拉克战争普丁把南奥赛梯和Abkhazia的认同问题当作是对於西方认同科所沃的反击）。 "Putin saw this as an erosion to Russian power. This conflict allowed Russia to demonstrate its military might, but even more so, its willingness to utilize it." 「普丁认为这是对俄国力量的侵蚀。这次冲突让俄国展现他的军事实力，也展现了俄国 愿意用军事力量的意志力。」 SVANTE E. CORNELL, CO-DIRECTOR, INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY, STOCKHOLM 安全暨发展政策组织协同主持人 "It's clear that at least for the foreseeable future the outcome of this conflict has been Russia's annexation... of South Ossetia and Abkhazia." 「很明显，未来发展会是俄国吞并南奥赛梯和Abkhazia。」 "(Georgia) has also seen a tremendous blow to its economy and potential to attract investment and a humanitarian tragedy, but it's too early to say that Georgia has only lost." 「乔治亚的经济以及吸引外资的潜力受到打击，同时这也是人道悲剧，但要说乔治亚 只有损失也是太早了。」 "There is a little soul searching to do on the part of European countries in particular... What's been shown is the West's utter inability or unwillingness to protect allies." 「对於欧洲国家来说这次特别须要扪心自问...现象是：西方完全无能与不愿 帮同盟撑腰。」 "For the United States, for its credibility as a partner across Eurasia has been severely damaged. There is no country in which the United States has invested so much political capital as in Georgia in this part of the world." 对美国来说，其在欧亚的信用已经受到严重打击。这个地区乔治亚是美国投注最多 政治资本的国家。」 EDWARD PARKER, HEAD OF EMERGING EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNS, FITCH "Obviously any ceasefire would be a start towards reconciliation but it would depend what conditions were attached and of course what happens next." 「显然停火会是重修关系的开始，但这会要看谈判带着什麽条件，以及接下来会发生 什麽事情。」 "But it wouldn't make an immediate difference to their rating. It doesn't look very good for Georgia. Going to war with Russia is bad for your creditworthiness, to put it mildly." 但不管怎麽样都不会影响大致格局。乔治亚看起来很不妙。与俄国作战，保守点说， 对信赖度会有坏影响。」 VLADIMIR OSAKOVSKY, EMERGING MARKET STRATEGIST, UNICREDIT Unicredit市场分析师 "We expect very positive market reaction to the effective end of military action and potential movement towards diplomatic resolution of the conflict, as the likelihood of further escalation of armed conflict has eased." 「我们预测市场会对军事行动的终止以及冲突朝向外交解决发展反应良好，同时进一步 武装冲突升级的可能性已经降低。」 "However, we need to emphasize the crisis is not over yet... We continue to believe the conflict is very unlikely to end in a new freeze into the quiet military standoff that has persisted since 1992, as such solution is unacceptable to both sides." 「但是我们强调危机还没结束。我们持续相信冲突不会以1992年以来的冷冻方式作为 结束，这对双方都是无法接受的。」 ANDY SOMMER, OIL MARKET ANALYST, HSH NORDBANK 石油市场分析师 "It is a little bit of good news because the situation there can be relaxed a bit and some stopped supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkey can be shipped again soon. Oil from Ceyhan is distillate-rich so it is a good news. 这是个不错的消息，当地的局势可以稳定些，来自哈萨克和土耳其一些停止供给的油料 也可以再次运出。Ceyhan的油仍然是馏分油，所以是好消息。 But it is not such a big thing that the market is going to react significantly. The oil market has not even reacted to the supply disruptions from Ceyhan. So we may not see a big change." 「但这消息没大到市场会显着反应。由市场还没有对Ceyhan的供应中断做出反应。 所以我们可能不会看到什麽显着的改变。」 MICHAEL DENISON, RUSSIA EXPERT, CHATHAM HOUSE THINKTANK, 查森屋智库，俄国专家 LONDON "I think probably the element of international concern has played a part. What we don't know as yet are the dynamics of Russian internal politics. I'm sure there was a fairly intense debate going on behind the scenes in the Kremlin." 「我想国际忧虑有影响。我们不知道的是俄国内部政治的动态。我确定克里姆林宫内 有很激烈的辩论。」 "I would not expect a very strong or unified EU response in relation to this ... What we will find with increasing intensity is a sort of 'What to do with Russia?' conversation, but that's been doing on since 2004." 我不期待欧盟会对此有强烈或统一的回应...我们会发现一些更频繁的「该怎麽对付 俄国」的讨论，但这从2004就开始了。 "It's highly unlikely now that South Ossetia will come back to Georgia ... I think what these conflicts have pretty much sealed their fate (of South Ossetia and Abkhazia)." 南奥赛梯不太可能重新回到乔治亚统治下。我想这些冲突已经确定了南奥赛梯和 Abkhazia的未来了。」 "They've acted as insulators against the resumption of Georgian control unless there is a very intensive diplomatic track which works very consistently and rapidly towards a solution here, but I think that's unlikely." 他们一直在抗拒乔治亚重新控制，除非有很密集的外交轨迹用很连贯地和快速地方式 迈向一个解决方法，但这不太可能。 VIKTOR CHUMAK, MILITARY ANALYST, AT THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLICY STUDIES, KIEV. "Ceasing fire today doesn't make a difference. Russia has already achieved most, 80 percent, of what it wanted to achieve. It only did not achieve a regime change. Russia has shown precisely that it is in control of the southern Caucasus. It has consolidated its position." 现在停火意义不大。俄国已经达成80％的目的了。他们的目的不是更换政府。俄国展现出 南高加索是在他的控制之中。他确立了自己的位置。 "NATO countries did not have a uniform stance on Georgia's and Ukraine's NATO membership and Russia took advantage." 北约国家没有统一立场处理乔治亚和乌克兰的北约会员国问题，俄国於是占了便宜。 "This is a very serious issue for Ukraine. We are thinking very seriously what it means for Ukrainian politics." 对乌克兰来说这是非常严重的。我们认为对乌克兰政治来说这非常严重。 "As long as Ukraine is not a NATO member Russia can do as she pleases. This situation could repeat itself in the (pro-Russia) Crimean region. Maybe not today or tomorrow but in a year or two or three." 只要乌克兰不是北约会员国，俄国可以为所欲为。这个情况可以在克里米亚地区重演。 可能不是今天或明天但在一两年或三年之内。 ULRICH LEUCHTMANN, STRATEGIST, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS, FRANKFURT: "It's very positive news for the rouble because the Georgian crisis was the only argument for the rouble weakness we saw in the last couple of days. With the crisis seemingly gone the rouble should recover from the losses it suffered." 对卢布来说是好消息，因为乔治亚危机是卢布最近几天疲软的唯一可能。危机似乎解除 後，卢布应该会脱离疲软并重拾之前的损失。 "Certainly there will be a slightly higher risk premium to Russia, because the market normally remember such higher volatility periods for quite a while. But if the immediate political and military risk is gone, there could also be a recovery (in equities)". 当然对俄国来说会有一些些高的风险溢价，因为市场通常会对这种高震荡期记忆深刻。 但如果立即的政治和军事风险解除，在证券方面会有些回复。」 DENIS KEEFE, BRITISH AMBASSADOR TO GEORGIA, ON BBC TV: 英国驻乔治亚大使 "If this news that military operations are stopping is correct, then that it what this country needs and we can then get on to build peace. 如果这个军事行动停止的消逝是正确的，那这就是这个国家需要的，我们可以 从此开始建立和平。 "This is a beautiful place with a wonderful people. They don't deserve the suffering that has been inflicted by military operations." 这个地方很每人很好。他们不应该受到这种军事行动的迫害。 MICHAL THIM, ANALYST, ASSOCIATION FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, PRAGUE: 布拉格国际事务协会分析师 "We have to wait and see if this is implemented. 我们必须看有没有落实。 "Russia militarily and politically achieved what it wanted. In all that time, apart from some verbal criticism, it has not met any sharp or fundamental reaction from the United States nor Europe. 俄国达成了军事和政治目的。这段时间内，虽然有很多言语冲突，但俄国没有面临美国 或是欧洲的任何尖锐地和显着的反应。 "The EU council of ministers is only meeting tomorrow and it was Russia's interest to put them in front of a final state of affairs which they seem to have achieved. 欧盟部长会议明天才开会，俄国的利益是把他们放在好像是他们完成的事件结局面前。 "It would be tactically disadvantageous for Russia to continue in its actions during that meeting given that they had achieved what they wanted. 对於俄国来说，在该会议期间持续行动对战略不利，特别是当他们已经达成所有目标了。 "The attacks on the territory of Georgia and the military action outside the areas of conflict discredited Russia and I cannot see how Russia wants to defend the role of an arbiter, a neutral player in those conflicts. 对於乔治亚领域的攻击以及在冲突区域之外的军事行动让俄国有些理亏，而我看不出来 俄国要如何为自己作为仲裁者、中立者辩护。 "EU ministers should agree on changing the negotiating formats for the conflicts in Ossetia and Abkhazia. The role of Russia can no longer be that of an arbiter of these conflicts. 欧盟各部长应该要针对更换奥赛梯与Abkhazia的协商形式。俄国的角色不在能够担任 冲突的协调者了。 NEIL SHEARING, EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS 新兴市场经济学家 "We'll see a bounce in stocks. We saw the currency bounce back this morning. 我们会看股市反弹。我们今早已经看到币值回升了。 "Nonetheless, investors will remain cautious for some time. This is just yet another in a long line of events that have raised political risk levels in Russia. 但是投资者还是会谨慎一阵子。这只是另外一起在俄国突然抬生的政治风险。 "Last month we had Putin making some fairly ominous warning sounds on OAO metal, a mining conglomerate, and hinting at the fact that they may have some tax irregularities, ominous overtones that are reminiscent of what happened with YUKOS." 上个月我们已经听过普丁对俄罗斯金属发出一些警告了，并且还暗示他们可能会有一些 税率不正常。这不祥的提示似乎与俄国石油事件当时类似。 "and that is coupled with the fact that the economy is actually overheating. I think investors will remain cautious, but we will see a bounce in all asset classes over the coming days and weeks." 且这还要加上经济其实已经过热。我想投资者会保持谨慎，但我们会看到所有资产分类 在皆下来几天和几个礼拜内回春。 (Reporting by Reuters bureaus) c Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Georgia/idUKLC38599920080812?sp=true 新闻来源: (需有正确连结) -- --

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