From The TimesAugust 9, 2008 How Georgia fell into its enemies' trap The fighting in the Caucasus should be a deafening wake-up call to the West Edward Lucas When is a victory not a victory? When it dents your country's image, scares your allies and gets you into an unwinnable war with a hugely stronger opponent. 啥时胜利不是胜利？当这胜利毁了你国家的形象，把你的盟友吓跑，把你拖入一场 无法打胜的战争，面对无法抗衡的对手。 That is the bleak outlook for Georgia this weekend, after what initially looked like a quick military win against the separatist regime in South Ossetia. Georgia's attack followed weeks of escalating provocations, including hours of heavy shelling by the Russian-backed breakaway province and signs of large-scale Russian reinforcement. 这就是乔治亚这周末的窘样，就在该国似乎才迅速赢得了对南奥赛梯独立份子的胜利。 乔治亚的攻击是在几周不断升级的挑衅之後，包括数小时的俄国支持的南奥赛梯炮火 攻击，以及大规模俄军集结的迹象。 Thanks to American military aid, Georgia's 18,000-strong armed forces are the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. But it is one thing for them to defeat the raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South Ossetia (population 70,000). It is another for a country of less than five million people to take on Russia (population 142 million). Now the Kremlin is reacting strongly. Russian warplanes are reportedly striking targets in Georgia. Reinforcements are pouring in. And the Kremlin's mighty propaganda machine is lumbering into action while a cyber-attack appears to have crippled Georgia's websites. 美军的军事支援让乔治亚的一万八千名武装部队在高加索区域独步，有最好的训练和 最精良的配备。但击败风餐露宿的非正规军如南奥赛梯的部队是一回事，要以五百万人口 的国家力量挑战俄国约一亿四千两百万人口的国家是另外一件事。现在克里姆林宫 反应强硬。俄国战机正在轰炸乔治亚境内目标。援军源源不绝地涌进。克里姆林宫 强大的宣传机器正在轰然启动网路攻击，且似乎已经重创乔治亚的各个网站。 For it is the information war, not what happens on the ground, that will determine the victor of this conflict. Russia is portraying Georgia as the aggressor, an intransigent and unpredictable country determined to restore its supremacy over an unwilling province by means of military force and “ ethnic cleansing”. Such a country, clearly, would be unfit to receive Western support. 是这场资讯战争，而不是地面的传统战争，决定这次冲突的胜者。俄国把乔治亚 渲染成滋事者，一个顽固而无法预测的国家，铁了心要把自己的势力范围扩张到 一个强力抵抗的省分，并不惜以武力和「种族屠杀」作为手段。这麽一个国家， 很明显地，不配得到西方国家的支持。 That seems to be working. European leaders have long been dubious about Mikhail Saakashvili, a charismatic US-educated lawyer who stormed to power in the Rose Revolution of 2005. Where the fans of the Georgian President see charm and brains, his critics - such as the German Chancellor Angela Merkel - see a dangerously headstrong and erratic leader. A crackdown on the Opposition in November, bullying of the media and instances of abuse of power among senior officials have allowed detractors to draw uncomfortable parallels between Georgia and Vladimir Putin's Russia. 这似乎奏效了。欧洲领袖们一向对Mikhail Saakashvili心存犹疑。这位总统是美国教育 出来的律师，在2005年的蔷薇革命中挟庞大民意取得大位。这位总统的粉丝看到的是 魅力和脑子，而他的批评者，如德国总理Merkel，看到的则是冥顽不灵并且无法预测的 领袖。十一月这位总统出手打击反对派，要胁媒体，以及几个高级官员耍特权的例子， 让批评者能把这个政府与普丁的俄国政府联想在一起。 These are misplaced: Georgia is not perfect, but it is not a dictatorship. Its leadership does not peddle a phoney ideology, such as the Kremlin's mishmash of Soviet nostalgia and tsarist-era chauvinism. It has a thriving civil society, vocal opposition and ardently wants to be in the EU and Nato. Moral grounds alone would be enough reason for supporting it against Russian aggression. 这是不当的连结：乔治亚并不完美，但它绝对不是独裁政府。他的领导人不会鼓动虚假 的意识型态，如克里姆林宫玩弄苏联怀旧和沙皇时代的沙文主义的手法。乔治亚有个 蓬勃的公民社会，有响亮的反对派声音，积极想要加入欧盟和北约。光是道德上就有 足够原因支持乔治亚对抗俄国的蛮横。 But on top of that is a vital Western interest. The biggest threat Russia poses to Europe is the Kremlin's monopoly on energy export routes to the West from the former Soviet Union. The one breach in that is the oil and gas pipeline that leads from energy-rich Azerbaijan to Turkey, across Georgia. If Georgia falls, Europe's hopes of energy independence from Russia fall too. 但除此之外，介入是符合西方政府的利益的。俄国对欧洲最大的威胁，是克里姆林宫 对於从前苏联领域通往西方的能源出口路线的独裁。通过乔治亚，把雅塞拜然的油气 资源运往土耳其的油管是能源通往西方的唯一缺口。如果乔治亚倒了，欧洲希望能 在能源上摆脱对俄国的依赖就也会幻灭。 Yet the West is both divided and distracted. America will be furious if reports turn out to be true that Russian warplanes bombed an airfield where Pentagon military advisers are based. But a lame-duck president is not going to risk World War Three for Georgia. In Europe, Georgia's allies are mostly small ex-communist states such as Lithuania; heavily outnumbered by those such as Germany that prize their relations with Russia, seemingly, above all else. It seems Russia is ready to hit back hard, in the hope of squashing the West's pestilential protégé. 但西方既分歧又迷糊。如果俄国战真如报导中所说，曾对五角大厦军事顾问驻紮的空军 基地轰炸，美国会气疯。但一个跛脚总统是不可能为乔治亚打一场第三次世界大战的。 在欧洲，乔治亚的同盟都是小型前共产国家，如立陶宛；在数量以及力量上都比不过如 德国这种珍视对俄友好关系的国家（且似乎比什麽都还重视）。似乎俄国准备狠很教训 一下乔治亚，彻底弭平这个讨厌的西方门徒。 In short, it looks more and more as though Georgia has fallen in to its enemies' trap. The script went like this: first mount unbearable provocations, then wait for a response, and finally reply with overwhelming military force and diplomatic humiliation. The idea that Georgia sought this war is nonsense. Recovering control of South Ossetia from its Russian-backed rulers has been a top priority for the Georgian authorities for years. But nobody thought it would come by military means. The Georgian strategy had been to use soft power, underlining its prosperity and the corruption- busting successes of Mr Saakashvili's rule. That contrasted sharply with the isolation and cronyism of South Ossetia, which survives only on smuggling and Russian subsidies. 检而言之，看起来乔治亚掉入了他敌人的陷阱之中。剧本是这样的：先是无法忍受的 一堆挑衅举动，然後等待反应，然後终於以绝对优势的武力和外交羞辱全面反击。 若要认为乔治亚求战是不可能的。从俄国支持的领导者手中重新取回南奥赛梯一向 是乔治亚当局的第一要务。但是没有人会想到竟会是以武力作为手段。乔治亚战略 一直是用软实力，用他的繁荣发展和成功扫荡贪腐的Saakashvili政府作为说词主轴。 这与南奥赛梯政府的与世隔绝和近亲政治造成极大反差。南奥赛梯政府强烈依靠 走私和俄国补贴为生。 Now that strategy is in ruins. As things stand, Georgia will be fighting not to regain South Ossetia or even to deter aggression, but to survive. It is hard to see any good outcome. Georgia has failed to win a quick victory: crucially, it failed to block the Roki tunnel under the Caucasus mountains, normally used as a smugglers' highway, but now the route for Russian heavy weapons that Georgia cannot counter for long. Worse, the authorities in Abkhazia, Georgia's other breakaway region, may mount an attack, either on its own or with Russian help. 现在，这套战略全毁了。现况是，乔治亚不再是为了夺回南奥赛梯而战，或反制滋事 事件，而是为了生存而战。很难看到情势会有什麽好的结果。乔治亚无法取得迅速的 胜利：更关键地，乔治亚无法封住高加索山区的Roki隧道。这条路线通常是走私者的 富贵大道，但现在成了俄国重装备运送纽带，而乔治亚军不可能长期抵抗的。更糟 的是，Abkhazia当局，乔治亚另一个闹独立的区域，可能会以己之力或接受俄国帮忙 发动攻击。 The fighting should be a deafening wake-up call to the West. Our fatal mistake was made at the Nato summit in Bucharest in April, when Georgia's attempt to get a clear path to membership of the alliance was rebuffed. Mr Saakashvili warned us then that Russia would take advantage of any display of Western weakness or indecision. And it has. 这次战事应该对西方是很响亮的警钟。我们最严重的错误是在四月的Bucharest北约 高峰会犯下的，那时乔治亚希望能够加入北约联盟的希望被驳回。Saakashvili警告过 我们，俄国会占任何西方软弱和举棋不定的便宜。且他已经得利了。 Edward Lucas is the author of The New Cold War (Bloomsbury) http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/ article4488503.ece 新闻来源: (需有正确连结) -- --

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