译按：本篇文章是另一篇Jeff Ward在2009发表在gamasutra.com的文章， 其中探讨了独立游戏资金的困境。非常值得独立游戏开发者好好思考。 原文网址： http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24686 Analysis: Is There Money To Be Made In Indie Games? 独立游戏经济学 by Jeff Ward August 4, 2009 [In this in-depth Gamasutra analysis, veteran game developer Jeff Ward crunches the numbers to craft a sobering look at the realities of independent game development business models.] Gamasutra深度分析，资深游戏开发者Jeff Ward拨开独立游戏开发的经济模型的帐幕并告 诉我们冷酷的现实。 I'm looking at releasing an Xbox Live Indie Game in the next few months. Recently, along with colleague Darius Kazemi, I started doing a little bit of math about indie game numbers, and it's gotten me wondering whether you can actually support yourself, and a company, on indie games -- indie, in this case, meaning a smallish team experimenting with interesting gameplay concepts and styles. 我目前(2009)正准备在数个月内释出一款Xbox Live Indie Game。我与同事Darius Kazemi一起进行了一些关於独立游戏的商业数字分析，想要知道是否这样的商业模型能够 支撑自己，团队，与开发商。这里讲的独立（indie）的意思就是一个极小规模又充满实 验性质的游戏开发团队。 Now, I understand that since this deals more with money than passion, it may end up alienating me from the indie community, but as a developer I want to see small experimental games flourish, and I want to see those people developing them do well for themselves. This analysis questions whether or not that's even possible under our current thoughts and models. 我必须了解面包比热情重要的事实，而且体认这份报告的结果可能使我转向离开独立游戏 社群的事实，但是身为一个游戏开发者我想要看到这些实验性质的独立游戏继续茂盛成长 ，我想要看见这社群能够自给自足。因此这个分析报告就是想要知道这个经济模型是否能 够运作。 We've been seeing recently a number of small game companies really hitting a wall when it comes to funding. Introversion had a post on their blog about their money problems, and Mommy's Best Games, though still pushing ahead, made it clear that the numbers on Weapon of Choice were not good. 我们最近都知道一些小游戏公司在募集资金方面遇到瓶颈。Introversion这间公司贴出一 些关於他们公司资金的问题，Mommy's Best Games发表的新游戏Weapon of Choice反应也 不够好。 * Introversion( http://www.introversion.co.uk/ ) (游戏定价在15~30美金) * Mommy's Best Games( http://www.mommysbestgames.com/ ) (Weapon of Choice是 Xbox Live的游戏) We've had rants from game players about alternative funding models and suggestions from Gabe Newell about public funding for games. What can we take from all of this? What can we do for funding models? 从游戏玩家那里传来的抱怨关於资金募集的方案以及Gabe Newell所提出的关於公开募捐 资金的建议。我们都有听到，也正在思考这个问题。 * Gabe_Newell ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabe_Newell ) Valve Corporation公司游戏与数位散布部门的执行长 This whole thing starts with one piece of information: How many copies of a single game does a developer need to sell per year in order to support themselves? Let's start at a baseline of $40,000 per year for a single developer. This may sound like a lot for indie developers and, let's face it, it really is. But it should be a pretty good baseline number, for a lot of reasons. Include taxation and taking into account health insurance costs and the possibility of supporting any person other than yourself, and $40k starts to sound pretty slim. 这钱的问题归根究底就是一款游戏一年可以必须卖几套才能养活一个游戏开发者？一年四 万美金（一百二十万台币）的销售额是一个基本的底限。听起来很多。实际上对独立开发 者来说真的很多。因为这数字包含税，健康保险，以及他要养活的那家子。因此这笔钱其 实没那麽足够。 Now we need to figure in loss to distributors. Let's ignore distributors with upfront costs and approval processes, such as Xbox Live Arcade, PlayStation Network, and WiiWare, because even developing for these services usually requires either an already-proven game or proven team, and we're assuming neither. This leaves us with iPhone, PC (in various forms, two of which we'll focus on), and Xbox Live Indie Games. For each platform, you need to look at distribution numbers, likely price points, and gross income, meaning the income after your distributor has taken its fair share. 然後把被通道商剥削的钱算进去。这边先不考虑Xbox Live Arcade，PlayStation Network，与WiiWare这种需要预付资金或是开发资格需要被审核的通路，因为要被准许开 发这种游戏通常都要有一定的基础（已经发表过够资格的前作）。因此选择只剩下iPhone ，PC，与Xbox Live Indie Games。本文接下来就是要对各通路计算那些可能的发售数字 ，点数的价钱，被通道商抽成之後的总收入。 iPhone Let's start with the newest (and, by all accounts, sexiest) guy on the block, the iPhone. Most apps on the iPhone sell for $.99 to $3, with Apple taking 30 percent off the top. Selling on the iPhone is really all about staying new, staying fresh, and staying on top of the most popular list. In order to do that, you need to stay at the lower price points to encourage impulse buys. That means staying at around $.99 for as long as possible. 我们从当红炸子机开始。大部分在iPhone上的应用程式都卖0.99到3美金（30到90台币） ，Apple会拿走30%。要在这个平台上卖就是要保持新鲜，也就是保持在架子的最上方。为 了达到高曝光率，只好尽量削价来抢购买数。我们列出各定价要满足我们前一段假设（四 万美金）一年所必须销售的数字 Here are the numbers: Price Developer Cut Sales Needed $1 $.70 57,000/year $2 $1.40 28,500/year $3 $2.10 19,000/year $5 $3.50 11,400/year So at the largely standard rate of $1, a single developer needs to push 57,000 copies of a game per year in order to support himself, or to push multiple applications which can reach that number. With the number of iPhones on the market somewhere around 6 to 10 million, how many sales can you expect? Mac Rumors reports that four apps easily hit almost a million sales, but what's the data like for games, and indie games at that? 假设定价在1美金，那麽一年得被五万七千人次所下载，或是有多个产品累积到这个数字 ，才能养活自己。市场的大小大概是六百到一千万只iPhone。Mac Rumors的报告显示有四 个"应用程式"到达百万套销售纪录，但是若是单看游戏类型的应用程式或是独立开发的游 戏呢？ * Mac Rumors reports : http://www.macrumors.com/2009/04/13/all-time-top-iphone-app-sales-figures-and-estimates/ The most telling post probably comes from the developer of Dapple, who wrote a very long post on how much money he actually made on the product; he has sold a total of about 500 copies. In addition, this post on the price of apps versus their popularity shows very few indie games in the list and very little money being made, Fieldrunners (essentially an App Store Launch Title) being the notable exception. Dapple的开发者发表了一篇有说服力的报告，说明他们从Dapple这个产品赚了多少钱。这 个产品卖出五百份。 虽然这份关於apps商城价格的报告很有名但却显示非常少的独立开发商在这个清单上，而 且也赚很少钱。不过Fieldrunners则是值得注意的例外。 Dapple ( http://www.148apps.com/reviews/dapple/ ) 宝石方块类型的游戏 Fieldrunners ( http://fieldrunners.com/ ) 塔防类型的游戏 The Numbers Post: Part 2 : http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/04/27/the-numbers-post-part-2/ Price and Popularity: The iPhone App Store’s Data Show Who’s Making The Most Money : http://www.mobileorchard.com/price-and-popularity-the-iphone-app-stores-data-shows-whos-making-the-big-money/ Fieldrunners http://fieldrunners.com/ Is it possible to be an indie and loved on the App Store? Only indies who have accomplished this can tell you, but 57,000 copies is a really hard number to hit with something interesting or experimental. 独立开发游戏有可能在App Store受欢迎吗？我们得找那些成功人士来问问。但是用单纯 只是有趣或是实验性质的题材卖出五万七千套可不是这麽简单的事情。 Xbox Live Indie Games So what about Xbox Live Indie Games? Their developer cuts are exactly the same, although the $2 price point doesn't exist, and the highest amount you can charge is $5. Until recently, $2.50 was the lowest you could charge, requiring about 22,800 copies to be sold per year. Unfortunately, sales figures came up very short for most developers. Total download rates are low, as Indie Games were hard to find on the dashboard until recently, and good apps are very hard to find, so I believe most people have been ignoring the service entirely. 条件相同，那麽平台换到XBox的独立游戏如何？抽成是一样的。虽然没有卖两美金等值微 软点数的产品，但是最高的产品售价可以到五块美金。若以最常见的低价两块半美金为计 算单位，要达到相同的水准每年要卖出两万两千八百套。很不幸地，大部分产品销售期通 常很短，下载率也不高，在之前独立游戏也很难冲上主机上会随选出现的游戏清单。甚至 我猜测很多玩家根本不不知道商城有卖这种游戏。 Sales for most games topped at probably around 5,000 copies since launch, far from the required 22,000 to support a single developer. 发表後五千个下载是很好的表现，但是差两万二还有一段距离。 PC Finally we come to PC. On the PC, you can expect to be able to charge more, but sales numbers tend to be lower and more is expected of a finished product. Games average anywhere from $5 to $30, even from indie developers. Hosting it on your own or through Steam, you get more of the pie. Steam unfortunately doesn't publish numbers, but PayPal does, and we can use it as a baseline. Assuming that you're looking to get above $40,000 here, we're going to use PayPal's range for $10,000 to $100,000, which is 2.2 percent + $.30 per transaction. 最後是个人电脑平台，定价可以较弹性，但是下载率更低，玩家更不喜欢半成品。售价通 常在五美金到三十美金之间，通路可以自行维护或是透过Steam平台，被剥削的比例比较 低。Steam很可惜没有公布抽成的数字，但是Paypal有，所以就拿来当基准。我们要找的 是每年销售四万美金这个点，所以我们锁定一万到十万这个级距（注），那麽就是抽成 2.2%附加0.3美金的手续费。（每笔100美金交易抽2.5美金。） Steam ( http://store.steampowered.com/ ) Paypal ( https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_wp-standard-overview-outside ) 注：这边我跟Jeff求证过，他那时算错了，Paypal的级距是以月来算，也就是一年四万美 金一个月应该是三千三，也就是应该降到3000~10000这个级距。 Price Developer Cut Sales Needed $5 $4.59 9,000/year $10 $9.48 4,000/year $15 $14.37 2,800/year $20 $19.56 2,000/year $30 $29.04 1,400/year Looking at these numbers, it's almost obvious why most successful indie developers start on PC. Even with the PC market shrinking (this talk from GDC shows that you can expect PC sales numbers in the hundreds of copies, thousands if you're lucky), you get to keep a lot more of your money, and the audience is self-selecting. People interested in indie games tend to have PCs and may buy your game. 数字会说话，这也解释了为什麽独立开发都从个人电脑平台开始发迹。即便个人电脑的市 场在萎缩（GDC研讨会说明了独立开发销售百套是普通，上千套就是幸运了）那些喜欢而 且有机会买独立游戏的玩家通常有个人电脑平台上。 Independent Games Sales: Stats 101 http://www.slideshare.net/simoniker/independent-games-sales-stats-101 (A note to pirates: Look at those numbers and see how much you're taking from that developer, and the numbers each developer has to hit before even becoming profitable. That, more than anything, should make you think twice about piracy.) 对於盗版：想想看这种数字真的会被盗版商看上吗？（在大卖之前都不用担心盗版） Hitting these numbers is possible, but not probable. It's quite obvious, to me, from these numbers why most successful indie devs are one man shops, making fairly quick games. This model doesn't scale to multiple developers, and definitely not for multiple years. 要达到这个数字可行，但是不一定简单。这就是为何成功的独立开发都是一人工作室，这 样规模的收益只容许开发一个人也很好开发的游戏。这种开发模式却不容易扩大规模也没 办法持续好几年。 Alternative Funding Models So what about Gabe's suggestion of running a "stock market" for games where you can invest in projects, get a game out of it, and possibly see a little bit from the net profits off? So far, we've seen a commission system partially work. 那Gabe说的建议：创造一个以游戏为标的的证券市场如何？你可以投资那些还在成长的专 案，看看能不能持续有净营利（net profit）？还有人真的在这样干。 Gabe's suggestion http://gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24502 commission system http://www.ludomancy.com/blog/downloads/ net profit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_profit Let's assume that for these systems, we're talking about multi-developer, multi-year projects. Still talking indie, let's assume four developers over a year and a half. Not taking into account taxes, office space, servers, or anything else, this totals $240,000 that needs to be raised over the course of a year and a half. 如果是这种（可以被投资并收益的）规模，这种规模的大小，可以假设开发团队有四位成 员，不计算税，办公租金，伺服器然後开发一年半，这样大概需要二十四万美金（ 40k*1.5*4，七百二十万台币）。 Though this is potentially possible, there are other concerns. If a person invests in this game with a promise of returns on the net profits (after other expenses and taxes), he needs to understand the risks involved. After all, if a game company never hits that $240,000 number, and can't survive long enough to complete the game, that money is lost. Attached to this is the idea of due diligence. Each investor is now an investor in your game, and has possible legal rights. If you just take the money and never finish the game, they might be able to sue you. What is there in place to protect the investor and the developer if this happens? 这似乎是可以达到的，但是其他的考量也得想清楚。投资者投资在你的团队或专案上，就 是希望持续有营利。它也必须了解风险，如果这二十四万美金没有到位，也就是团队没有 办法做完游戏，这资金也就如同丢到水沟。相反地拿了钱就该做事。投资者对他的钱也当 然有百分百的权力，独立开发者若是拿了钱却没有完成工作，投资者可能会真的找人（法 官）把你勒死。如何维持两端的平衡是很重要的。 Provided these legal issues could be worked out, how much net profit would you be looking at losing, and how much would you charge for each point of net profit? What would developers look to gain, and what would investors look to gain? 意思是投资者与该发商该如何（以某种比例的方式）去分享净利，或是如何去承担损失。 First, let's start with a game that sells about 20,000 copies at $20 each on PC using the numbers above. We're assuming these are good games that have a following, otherwise they wouldn't have been funded in the first place. That totals $391,000 in revenue on the game, and let's assume for argument's sake that we have $41,000 in expenses for the game. That leaves us with $350,000. Assuming we split to end up getting the funding we need, here's what the graph looks like: 假定我们卖出了两万份售价各为二十美金的游戏软体。假定产品不错，有固定支持者，否 则一开始恐怕就找不到资金。所以回收就是三十九万一千美金（扣掉手续费19.56*20000 ）。假定为了拓展通路我们花费了四万一千。意思就是剩下三十五万，然後我们用下面这 张表来分钱。 Percentage of Valve of each Total Revenue to Revenue Revenue to net available point net invested investors per point developers 70% $3500 $245,000 $245,000 $3,500 $105,000 60% $4000 $240,000 $210,000 $3,500 $110,000 50% $5000 $250,000 $125,000 $2,500 $125,000 30% $8000 $240,000 $105,000 $3,500 $245,000 That's pretty grim. Only in the 70 percent case do the investors come out just breaking even, and the developers have enough to fund half of their next game. Is it possible? Maybe. But is it worth it for the investors? How many times will an investor lose most of their money from games that aren't finished, or games that don't break 20,000 to 30,000 copies before they just kind of give up investing? How much work is required of developers just to set up the legalities to make sure they don't get sued, and their investors don't get screwed? 事实是很残酷的，只有70%入股（注）的算法其利润可以让投资者损益两平，然後开发者 也可以拿到下年度开发所需一半的资金。也许可以做到，但是投资者会认为这样值得吗？ 游戏还没卖出的时候投资者抽手时也没办法把产品拆给他。如何避免投资者对开发团队兴 讼，同时投资标的也不会整组害了了。 注：这边表格是一个投资者计算报酬的投资条件，每股多少钱乘以公司卖出多少比例的股 份，就是投资者投入的资金（也就是公司募集的资金）假如整个公司视为100股，以70%为 例就是70股，若是每一股卖$3500圆就可以募集到足够的资金（$245000），然後获利 350000乘以70%就是股东可以拿到的钱也就是$245000扣掉之後就是开发者能拿到的资金。 Another funding model for indie devs is to keep titles relevant from year to year, maintaining sales of the title up while you work on the next title, and into your third. By keeping these games selling, you can start to see actual profits. However, this also means consistently releasing games year after year, and surviving until these games come out. This takes a lot of startup capital, or at least the ability or desire to eat ramen for years on end, with only the smallest chance of reward. 另一个独立开发营运模式就是不计获利保持名声，持续拓展知名度直到真的有一款游戏能 有实质获利为止。然而这需要一笔很大的预备资金来烧，如同在羊肠小径上前进。 Conclusion 结论 These numbers make it really obvious to me why most indie (and, in some cases, non-indie) business models exist, and why they produce the games they produce. To be successful, you need to be in one of a few situations: 我们讨论这数字让我们知道这些独立开发的经济模型，以及开发这样的产品的原因。总和 来讲要成功就可能是以下几种类型： - A single developer who makes a good title (Crayon Physics developer Petri Purho, for example) - A single or set of developers with short release cycles to keep multiple games relivant over short periods of time (almost all iPhone developers) - A developer who has an already-popular game and is able to get on one of the more visible services like Xbox Live Arcade, PlayStation Network, or WiiWare (thatgamecompany, The Behemoth, 2D Boy, Number None) －单人有名声的开发者（译按：如东方系列）。 －单人或小组能够快速开发小型的游戏。 －开发者已经开发过有名的作品，然後用独立开发在那些商城作其他方向的拓展。 This is why indie games experiment the way they do -- shorten the development cycle, concentrate on mechanics and prototypes, keep art resources and requirements low, release lots of games quickly. There needs to be more available. I'm sure there are indies out there that want to experiment with things that take longer development cycles -- weird dynamics, involved dynamic art styles, strange narrative structure -- but can't for survivability reasons, and that's a damned shame. 缩短开发周期，专注在游戏运作机制与原型，减少对美术的需求，可以迅速铺货。我相信 一定有那些独立开发想要花更长的时间做实验性质的事情，如奇怪的物理模拟，整合动态 美术风格，特殊的游戏叙述结构，但是那些实验要素并不是在存活的必要点，而且如果失 败了，会很糗。 So maybe there's not a good living to be made in indie games. Even with alternative money sources, it doesn't look like you can sustain a business, even of a small number of developers, without targeting AAA numbers, which seems to have a quality bar that almost requires a AAA team. 即使有这些资金募集的管道，也许独立开发并不是一门可以养活一组人的好生意，除非你 能用独立开发作出那些一流团队的水准。 Obviously, the math that is wrong somewhere, as we've seen success stories happen, but is it worth it for me (or anyone else) to attempt the struggle when the reward seems to be mostly more struggle? Is there an answer I'm missing? Is there money to be made, or even survivability, in remaining truly independent? If there is, can it be done with more models than what we have now? 回过头来，这些数据跟事实都是我们假设的，我们还是看到那些成功案例一个个冒出来， 但是去了解是否更努力就能成功是很重要的。去了解在独立开发领域是否有更多我们不知 道的赚钱方式，营运模型，或是生存能力也是很重要的。 [Jeff Ward is a professional game middleware programmer, amateur game designer, armchair media theorist, and user interface speculator. He is currently the Lead Architect at Orbus Gameworks, providing metrics middleware to game companies, and is currently looking at releasing his first independent title to Xbox Live Indie Games, apparently for very little reward.] Jeff Ward是一个职业的游戏层软体程式设计师，业余的游戏设计者，前卫的媒体理论家 ，以及使用者介面研究者。担任过Orbus Gameworks的软体架构主任，该公司提供软体层 服务给游戏商，也正准备在XBox商城释出试水温的游戏。目前转职到Fire Hose Games.担 任游戏程式设计员。 -- "May the Balance be with U"(愿平衡与你同在) 视窗介面游戏设计教学，讨论，分享。欢迎来信。 视窗程式设计（Windows CLR Form）游戏架构设计（Game Application Framework） 游戏工具设计（Game App. Tool Design ） 电脑图学架构及研究（Computer Graphics） --

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