※ [本文转录自 MLB 看板 #1LribFHj ] 作者: fountainNess (秋本平吉千人将) 看板: MLB 标题: [外电] Jake Arrieta-从边缘人到顶尖 时间: Fri Aug 21 14:46:36 2015 这篇写於四周前,这四周之间Jake Arrieta又为小熊拿下四胜 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jake Arrieta: From fringe Major Leaguer to elite starter by Randy Holt 4w ago It doesn’t seem like too long ago that the baseball world was almost talking about Jake Arrieta in the past tense. That may seem dramatic, but with the Baltimore Orioles, Arrieta was a guy who looked like he could end up being nothing more than a fringe Major League pitcher, with high upside, but unable to harness his stuff effectively enough to develop into the type of starter that the O’s hoped he could be. Jake Arrieta曾经差点是棒球界里的过去式.还在巴尔的摩金莺队的Arrieta看起来就是一 个MLB边缘的先发投手.虽然他有着高的天花板,但却始终没办法将自己的天份转换成金莺所 期望的那种先发投手. Even after a career year in his first season with the Chicago Cubs, in which he went for a 2.53 ERA and a 2.26 FIP, there were those who called for a regression in 2015, given the lack of history of success that Arrieta had demonstrated at the big league level. But here we are, midway through the 2015 campaign, where Arrieta has not only established himself as a consistent starter for the Cubs, but has developed into one of the very best up on the bump in the National League. 由於Arrieta过去的成功并不多,尽管在小熊的第一个球季投出生涯年(2.53ERA/2.26FIP), 仍有不少质疑者认为他在2015将会衰退.但是在现在,2015球季中段,Arrieta不仅仅成为一 个固定先发,他更逐渐发展成国联顶尖先发投手之一. Arrieta has built on that career year from 2014 this season, with his 3.7 WAR setting him on pace to eclipse the 5.1 figure he posted last year. His ERA and his FIP are identical, with both currently standing at 2.52 coming out of his start on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves. He’s keeping the ball on the ground, with a 51.2% GB rate that is the highest in his career, while punching out 9.30 hitters per nine and walking just 1.96 per nine. Arrieta今年又重现了一次生涯年.目前3.7WAR的节奏看来会超过去年缴出的5.1WAR.ERA跟 FIP相当,都是2.52.他持续让球留在地上,有着生涯最高的滚地球率51.2%.此外他平均每九 局三振掉9.30个打者,同时保送不到两次(1.96). That latter figure is perhaps the most intriguing, given Arrieta’s control problems in the past. In 2011, Arrieta made 22 starts with the Orioles in which he walked 4.45 per nine. Across 14 starts in 2013 with the O’s and Cubs, Arrieta posted a 4.90 K/9. He improved greatly last year, at 2.36 and now has a figure that is not only his career mark, but ranks 24th among 97 qualifying starters in all of baseball, and 12th in the National League. 由於Arrieta过去的控球问题,保送率的下降令人感到兴趣.Arrieta在2011投的22场先发里 平均每九局保送4.45人.2013年中的14场先发,则是4.90次.去年进步良多来到2.36,但今年 的数字不仅仅是生涯新高,更是97位局数够的先发中第24低,在国联则是排名第12. The following represents where Jake Arrieta ranks across the board against the rest of the National League: 以下是Jake Arrieta缴出来的成绩单,括弧内为国联排名 ERA: 2.52 (8th) FIP: 2.52 (4th) K/9: 9.30 (8th) BB/9: 1.96 (12th) WHIP: 0.98 (6th) ERA-: 66 (12th) WAR: 3.7 (4th) The numbers really tell the story there. If one were to go by WAR, it’s easy to determine that we’re looking at one of the very best starters not only in the NL, but in all of baseball. The scary thing for the rest of the National League is that Arrieta has gotten better as the year has progressed. After posting a 3.99 ERA in May, he went for a 2.45 figure in June and has posted a 1.17 mark thus far in July. In fact, July has been his best month overall, with a WHIP of just 0.72 and a FIP of 1.69, both of which represent his lowest marks of the season. 数字会说话.如果我们从WAR来看,我们看到的不只是国联,而是联盟中很棒的先发投手之一. 恐怖的是,Arrieta的成绩随着时间的推进越来越好.五月的ERA是3.99,再来是2.45,再到七 月的1.17.事实上,七月是他的最佳月份,WHIP仅有0.73而FIP是1.69(两者都是所有月份中最 低). It isn’t terribly difficult to determine where Arrieta’s success is coming from, either. Arrieta has relied primarily on a two-seam fastball, with his four-seam usage actually dipping 10 percent, to just 9.04% of the time, according to Brooks Baseball. That sinker usage has jumped from 27.55% in 2014 to up over 39% in 2015. Where Arrieta really earns his bones is with a slider that has been affectionately referred to as a “slutter”, which makes up 31.29% of his pitches and about 14% of his whiffs. When he needs it, he has a highly effective curveball that he works in there as well. That’s an elite mix of pitches, and harnessing each one has allowed Arrieta to take these steps to an elite level. 不难看出Arrieta的成功是哪里来的.Arrieta主要仰赖他的二缝线速球,四缝线的使用率下 探到9.4%.伸卡使用率从2014年的27.55%跃升到今年的39%.Arrieta实际上的成功主要来自 於他的滑球(被称为slutter→滑球加卡特),这颗球的使用率是31.29%并且在挥空比例上占 14%.当Arrieta需要时,他还有一颗很有效的曲球.利用这顶级的球路组合让Arrieta一步步 成为顶尖投手. Arrieta has actually picked up velocity almost across the board, with a near 1 MPH increase in his two-seamer, as well as the slider. Additionally, each pitch he brings to the mix has movement on it that has made life very difficult for hitters, as illustrated by the following: Arrieta几乎所有球种的球速都变快了,二缝线和滑球都增加1MPH.更进一步的,位移更大的 球种让打者非常困难.如图所示. http://imgur.com/c9291z8 His sinker tails in against righties and away against lefties, while the slider does just the opposite. It has a 3.20 in. horizontal movement, making it a pitch that moves away from right-handed hitters, while moving in toward lefties . Which makes his pitch usage a relatively obvious, but effective, formula: 他的伸卡向右打者的内侧走,走向左打的外侧.滑球则是完全相反而且有着3.20的水平位移. 虽然他使用球种的倾向相对好猜,但相当有效. http://imgur.com/h8SrvNL But again, it all comes back to Jake Arrieta being able to harness his tremendously high upside. He’s always had these types of pitches in his arsenal, he just didn’t have the ability to control him to the point where he could become an effective starter. Working with Chris Bosio in Chicago has obviously been an incredible asset for him, as evident by his walk numbers, which continue to diminish. Jake Arrieta一直都有着这样的武器,但他就是无法控制球,进而无法成为有效率的先发投 手.小熊队的Chris Bosio明显给了他很多帮助,让他的保送率持续下降,让他的天份能够发 挥. In his short time with the Cubs, we’ve seen Arrieta develop from a guy with upside who could potentially be “a guy” in the rotation to a completely legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter. In forming that 1-2 punch with Jon Lester, it isn’t any sort of surprise that the Cubs that sits at the top of the league in FIP and fifth in Major League Baseball in ERA. Not only has Arrieta improved, he’s done so to the point where we don’t have to question whether or not he’s elite anymore. He is. 在Arrieta在小熊队里短短的时间,我们看着一个有着高天份的选手变成一个合格的前段轮 值.有着Jake Arrieta和Jon Lester这样的一二连拳,我们并不会对小熊领先国联的FIP和 全大联盟第五的ERA感到意外.Arrieta不只进步了,他进步到一个我们不需要质疑他是否顶 尖的程度.他已经是顶尖投手了. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 今天的Arrieta又投出一场六局无失分附带七次三振的好投,率领小熊7:1轻取斧头帮 他今年的成绩来到这样: 1st in NL in W (15) 3rd in NL in IP (168.0) 5th in NL in SO (170) 3rd in NL in ERA (2.30) 6th in NL in WHIP (0.99) 3rd in NL in W% (.714) 3rd in NL in CG (2) 令人不经好奇,今年如果要打外卡骤死战,要派Jon Lester还是Jake Arrieta呢? -fountainness --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 111.243.120.58 ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/MLB/M.1440139599.A.46D.html Zamned大,我看FG的pitch velocity觉得很奇怪12~14还有计算cutter均速到15就剩slider pitch type显示12~14的cutter使用率也仅介於1.0~1.6%,而slider都是24.8%以上 我倾向解读成FG把Arrieta的cutter归类为滑球,是这样吗? 如上所述可能就是归类问题 所以本文用slutter可能蛮适合的XD 没错喔,至少有四缝(94.2)、二缝or伸卡(94.5)跟那颗卡特or滑球(90.2) ※ 编辑: fountainNess (123.193.214.219), 08/22/2015 00:24:15

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ※ 转录者: Zamned (118.160.12.197), 08/31/2015 12:35:32