http://0rz.tw/143YX Hoop Data Dreams By STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT After going dry for 86 seasons, the Boston Red Sox have won two World Series in the past four years. This hot stretch began soon after the team hired Bill James, the sport’s most accomplished statistician, as a senior baseball operations adviser. Whether coincidence or not, this overlap was widely noted, and it is now standard practice for baseball teams to hire a flock of statheads and use their analyses to help make decisions on and off the field. 在86个球季没拿冠军之後，波士顿红袜队在四年内得了两座世界冠军。这段火热时间自 球队雇用了Bill James作为资深棒球营运顾问开始，而他是这个运动最有成就的数据专 家。不管是不是巧合，这段重复时期被广为注意，现在棒球队雇用一堆数据头，使用他 们的分析以帮助场上和场下的决策变成标准做法。 This probably makes good sense for a sport like baseball, which is full of discrete events that are easily measured. It is also understandable, however, that there is less of an edge to be gained from statistical analysis now that everyone is doing it. 这对棒球来说也许很有道理，因为它充斥了离散的事件，所以很容易衡量。然而，也可 容易理解，因为每个人都在这样作，现在要从数据分析得到的优势比较少了。 Basketball, meanwhile, might seem too hectic and woolly for such rigorous dissection. It is far more collaborative than baseball and happens much faster, with players shifting from offense one moment to defense the next. (Hockey and football present their own challenges.) A lot of things happen on a basketball court — picks, passes, defensive shifts — that aren’t routinely quantified. This is not to suggest that basketball teams don’t think statistically. But only recently have a few teams begun to hire a new breed of stathead to scrutinize every conceivable variable. 同时间，篮球对於这种严肃的分析似乎是太惯常和模糊的。它比棒球更加需要合作，速 度更快，球员在这个瞬间进攻，下个时点就变成防守 (曲棍球和美式足球也有各自的挑 战) 。太多事在篮球场上发生—掩护、传球、防守技巧—没办法持续量化。这不代表篮 球队不用数据思考。但是直到最近，才有一些球队雇用了数据头作为新血，想要检验每 个可以想像的变数。 The Boston Celtics, owned by several men with venture-capital backgrounds, have for the past few years been one of the most data-driven teams in the N.B.A. They have also just completed the biggest single-season turnaround in history, entering the playoffs two weeks ago with a league-best 66 victories after winning just 24 games last year. 波士顿塞尔提克队有几位有创投背景的老板，在过去几年变成 NBA里最资料导向的球队 之一。他们也刚刚完成了史上最大的胜场进步，从去年的24场进步到今年的66场，并在 两周前打进了季後赛。 Coincidence? Probably, for the Celtics obtained two monstrously accomplished players in the off-season, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. It didn’t take a statistician to tell you that the Celtics would be a lot better this year than last. 巧合吗？有可能，对Celtics在休赛期得到两个巨大成就的球员KG和Ray Allen来说。不 用一个数据专家就可以告诉你Celtics今年比去年好多少。 But the team also employs what the general manager, Danny Ainge, calls his “secret weapon,” a 32-year-old named Mike Zarren, who seems to know every data point about every N.B.A. player, past and present. Garnett calls him Numbers, the Celtics Dancers call him Stats and Paul Pierce, the team’s longtime standout, calls him M.I.T. even though Zarren never went there. He did, however, lead a University of Chicago quiz-bowl team to four national tournament victories and later graduated from Harvard Law. (Disclosure: Steven Levitt taught Zarren while the latter was an economics undergrad at Chicago.) He subsequently fell from the lofty realm of academia into his dream job, as the Celtics’ stat savant. 但是球队也雇用了一个”秘密武器”，这是GM Danny Ainge的说法，他是32岁的Mike Zarren，他似乎知道每个NBA球员的每一种资料，不管是过去或是现在。Garnett叫他” 数字”，Celtics啦啦队叫他”数据”，而本队长期的资优生Paul Pierce叫他”M.I.T.” ，即便Zarren从来没念过那里。然而，他的确带领过一支芝加哥大学的机智问答队，得 到四个全国巡回赛胜利，稍後则从哈佛大学法学院毕业。(资讯揭露：Steven Levitt在 芝加哥大学教过Zarren，当时後者就读该校经济系大学部。) 他随後从个高级的领域掉 到了他的梦想工作，作为Celtics的数据专家。 Zarren also happens to be the team’s associate counsel, although this would be hard to believe if you came across him at a game, way up in the cheap seats, wearing his green satin Celtics jacket and shouting himself hoarse: “He pushed! He pushed! . . . You got ’em, K.G.!” To describe his Celtics fandom as rabid would be a gross understatement. This is his third season on the Celtics’ payroll — he worked two years without pay as a law student and while clerking for a judge — but his family has had season tickets since 1974. He began regularly attending games at age 5, and since moving back to Boston after college, he has missed only five home games. Zarren刚好也是球队的助理顾问，但是你在比赛中看到他会很难相信，坐在高高的便宜 位子，穿着绿色的 Celtics夹克，嘶哑地大喊”他推人了！他推人了！把他们宰了，KG ！”要说他是疯狂的Celtics球迷，还是太简单地低估他了。这是他第三个球季在Celtics 支薪—之前他工作了两年没支薪，当时他是个作法官助理的法学院学生—但是他的家庭 从1974年就持有季票。他五岁就开始定期地看比赛，自从大学後搬回波士顿，他只错过 五次主场比赛。 “Three of those,” he says, “were due to illness.” ”有三次是因为生病”他说。 Danny Ainge was a key player on the last Celtics team to win an N.B.A. title, more than 20 years ago. He also played Major League Baseball for three summers, with the Toronto Blue Jays. You might think that is why he embraces the statistical approach to sport now commonly called “moneyball,” after the title of Michael Lewis’s book, but in fact Ainge is not a true believer. “I just think there’s a lot of to-do about nothing in some of that,” he says. “I mean, I heard about on-base percentage in 1976 when I was a junior in high school.” Danny Ainge是上次Celtics得到冠军的关键球员，那是在二十多年以前了。他也替多伦 多蓝鸟队打了三年的大联盟。你也许会想这是他拥抱运动数据分析的原因，在棒球界通 常被叫做”钱球”，以Michael Lewis的书为名。但是其实Ainge不是个真诚的信徒。” 我只是认为有太多说是你该去作的事，但是其实没什麽内容。”他说”我的意思是，我 大概在1976年就听过上垒率了，那时我是个高二生。” Ainge hired Zarren simply because he wants any advantage worth having, and Zarren’s insights are “more information on every decision we make,” Ainge says. “Mike is a much smarter guy than I am. I’m open to smarter people than me. It still comes down to my instincts. I have to make the choice, no matter what my scouts say, no matter what the models say. I don’t think it’s realistic to think that a statistical model will ever be foolproof in basketball because there are so many variables, but I do think it can help us.” Ainge雇用Zarren的原因是他想要任何值得拥有的优势，而 Zarren的洞见在於”我们作 决定时提供更多资讯”Ainge 说。”他是个比我聪明很多的人。我对於比我聪明的人保 持开放心胸。这仍然是跟我的直觉有关。我必须要作选择，不管我的球探怎麽说，不管 数据模型怎麽说。我认为想要用个数据模型，就可以永远避免在篮球方面当个白痴是很 不切实际的。因为有太多变数，但是我仍然认为它可以帮助我们。” There are two channels through which Zarren can help the Celtics. The first is by assessing potential deals and draft picks, which means bouncing information off of Ainge. The second channel is strategic advice, which means going to Coach Doc Rivers, whom Ainge says is “skeptically receptive” to Zarren’s insights. You sense that Zarren has gained credibility within the Celtics not because the basketball people adore his regression analyses but because he adores the sport. “Most geeks are not basketball guys,” Zarren says, “and most basketball guys are not geeks. You have to be both to be successful in this developing field.” Zarren可以透过两种管道帮助 Celtics。第一种是评估可能的交易和选秀对象，也就是 反应资讯给Ainge。第二种则是策略建议，也就是向Doc Rivers教练，Ainge说他对Zarren 的意见是” 容易接纳，但是保持怀疑”。你可以感觉到Zarren在Celtics已经得到信赖 度，但不是因为篮球人热爱他的回归分析，而是因为他本身就热爱这项运动。”大部分 怪胎不是篮球人。”Zarren说”而大部分的篮球人不是怪胎。要在这个发展中的领域成 功，你两者都要是。” What’s the most efficient shot to take besides a layup? Easy, says Zarren: a three-pointer from the corner. What’s one of the most misused, misinterpreted statistics? “Turnovers are way more expensive than people think,” Zarren says. That’s because most teams focus on the points a defense scores from the turnover but don’t correctly value the offense’s opportunity cost — that is, the points it might have scored had the turnover not occurred. 什麽是除了上篮最有效的投篮方式？很简单，是角落的三分球，Zarren说。什麽是最常 被误用、被曲解的数据？”失误付出的代价比人们想的还要大。”Zarren说。这是因为 大多数的球队专注於藉由对方失误所得到的分数，而没有正确地衡量进攻的机会成本— 也就是说，如果失误没有发生，你可能会得到的分数。 As for what the Celtics know about their own and opposing players — well, that information is guarded like the crown jewels. Off the record and under duress, Zarren did reveal some valuable information, but we judged credible his threat to hunt us down and kill us if it were published. He was willing to admit that Ray Allen’s worth goes far beyond his perimeter shooting, that Rajon Rondo’s rebounding was an undervalued asset, that Leon Powe’s surprisingly strong play was not so surprising to the Celtics and that, as transformative a player as Garnett was known to be, he has generated a variety of offensive and defensive pluses that even the Celtics didn’t anticipate. 至於 Celtics了解自己和对手球员多少—嗯，这项资讯被保护的像是皇冠上的珠宝般。 在声明不列入纪录和被胁迫的情况下，Zarren的确揭露了一些有价值的资讯，但是我们 相信他说要把我们灭口的威胁，还有如果把它写出来，他就要杀了我们。他”承认”Ray Allen的价值比他的外线跳投还要多很多，Rajon Rondo的篮板是个被低估的资产，Leon Powe令人惊讶的好表现对 Celtics来说不是太惊讶，还有，KG被认为是多功能型球员， 他对进攻和防守带来多大的提升，即便Celtics都没有预期到。 Zarren is also responsible for the Celtics’ basketball-related technology and uses a service that delivers video footage tagged with statistical information. With just a few mouse clicks, he can call up every clip in which LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers has touched the ball at the top of the key and see whether he went left or right, was double-teamed or not, passed or shot — and, if the latter, whether he missed, scored or was fouled. So if the Celtics dampen James’s scoring the next time they play a high-stakes game against the Cavs, Zarren might be entitled to a smidgen of credit. Zarren也负责 Celtics篮球有关的科技，使用一项将影像连结到数据资讯的设备。只要 点几下滑鼠，他就可以叫出每个骑士队的LeBron James在禁区底端拿到球的片段，看看 不论他是往左或往右走、被包夹与否、传球或是投篮—还有，如果投篮，他是没进、得 分、或是被犯规。所以如果下次Celtics想要在一场很重要的比赛中抑制James的得分， Zarren也许值得一点点的肯定。 Still, there remains a significant universe of basketball statistics that are simply not captured: each pass thrown and caught, each player’s position on the floor at a given time, any number of angles and proximities and nuances. Zarren lusts after such data and is quietly pushing for a technological solution that would produce it. One possibility: embed the floor of each N.B.A. arena with electronic sensors and have the players wear microchips in their sneakers. 没错，还有多如宇宙般的篮球数据根本没被摘录下来：每个传出去和被接到的传球，任 何时间每个球员在场上的站位，各种的角度、接近程度、细微差别。Zarren追逐这些资 讯，安静地推动一项可以产生这些资讯的科技。有一个可能性：在每个 NBA场馆的地板 上加装电子感应器，然後让球员在球鞋里装微晶片。 The last few decades have been sad ones for the Celtics, marked by loss of life (including Len Bias, their 1986 first-round draft pick) and losses on the court. All that gloom will dissipate if they can manage to win their 17th championship this season. Other teams will of course rush to mimic the Celtics’ formula — beginning, presumably, by trying to acquire a player like Kevin Garnett. But there are a lot more Mike Zarrens in the world than there are Kevin Garnetts, and they also happen to come with a much lower price tag. 过去数十年对Celtics来说是悲伤的，以失去生命作为标记(包括Len Bias，他们1986年 的第一轮选秀) ，还有球场上的失败。所有这些忧郁的心情将被消散，如果这季他们能 得到队史第17座冠军。其他队当然会模仿 Celtics的方程式—我们假设，会从得到一个 像KG般的球员开始。但是世界上还有比KG更多的像 Mike Zarren这种人，同时他们只要 一个便宜很多的价格标签。 --

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