原文网址如下 http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100330 Normally at this time of year, we would be writing breathless articles about the MVP race, rallying our support behind one candidate or another and sifting through torrents of angry e-mails supporting that player's rivals. 通常每年这个时候大家都在讨论年度MVP，并且为几个有可能的得奖人 争论的激烈不休。 Not this year. 今年不然。 The MVP race has been over since about mid-January. LeBron James has run so far away from the pack that he could shoot 0-for-100 from the field over his final eight games and still win the award going away. (For fun, I fact-checked this: Even with 100 straight misses, no assists and no rebounds in his next 200 minutes, he'd still lead the league in PER.) 今年的年度MVP争夺赛基本上在一月中就可以说划上休止符。 喇叭詹远远的把所有人都抛在後头，就算他最後八场比赛 投100球零命中也不影响他得奖。 （基於好奇，我还真的做了这样的测试，如果喇叭詹最後八场是 在两百分钟内连续失投100球，而且八场比赛传不出一个助攻 也抓不到一个篮板，他的PER值还是乐胜所有球员。） Only two items of interest remain. First, will some sycophant homer screw up what should be a unanimous decision with a completely indefensible vote for his local guy? And second, is this the best individual season a player has ever had? 所以只剩两件事情让人感兴趣了。第一，会不会有哪个爱乡 爱家的死忠记者让喇叭詹全票当选MVP的可能性破功？ 第二，LBJ的数据是不是历年来最好的个人数据？ As you might suspect, today's topic deals with the second of those questions. Some of this may sound familiar, as this time a year ago I mentioned that James was en route to one of the best statistical seasons in history. （依照我一贯的笔触，）你可以猜到，今天的主题讨论的是第二个问题。 尤其去年我也写了一篇类似的文章。 Here's the thing: This season, he's been better. 即便如此，今年的喇叭，比往年更喇叭！ Once again, a hallowed record (at least in my world) is in play for James as we enter the final eight games: He could surpass Michael Jordan's 1987-88 campaign for the greatest single-season PER in the modern era. I have to add the "modern" qualifier because the league didn't keep track of things like blocks and individual turnovers before 1973-74, rendering the PER exercise a guessing game for players from previous eras. 如同以往，喇叭詹今年依然有可能打破老乔在1987-88年所创造的 「现代」篮球里最高的PER值记录，之所以加注「现代」，只追溯到 1973-74年，是因为在73年以前的NBA并没有记录火锅和失误这两项重要数值。 James' current PER of 31.81 is second best in "modern" history, and with eight games left (of which he'll probably play only five or six), he retains an outside shot at breaking Jordan's all-time mark of 31.89. At the very least, he's going to be within hailing distance. 以这标准来看，喇叭詹目前的PER是31.81，仅次於老乔于87-88年的31.89。 虽然说最後八场比赛他可能轻松应对，不过不可否认球季结束後他的PER 值离最佳记录理应是咫尺之遥。 Top All-time PER Seasons 历年来最佳的PER值记录 Player Year PPG RPG APG MPG PER Michael Jordan 1987-88 35.0 5.5 5.9 40.4 31.89 LeBron James 2009-10 29.8 7.2 8.6 39.0 31.81 Michael Jordan 1990-91 31.5 6.0 5.5 37.0 31.79 LeBron James 2008-09 28.4 7.6 7.2 38.6 31.76 Michael Jordan 1989-90 33.6 6.9 6.3 39.0 31.31 Michael Jordan 1988-89 32.5 8.0 8.0 40.2 31.29 Regardless, James will almost certainly set another record: The best two-year PER stretch of any player in history. James was no slouch last season, finishing at 31.76 for the third-best PER ever (well, until he bumped it down to fourth this season); combined, that gives him a two-year average of 31.78. The best Jordan mustered was 31.55. 不过不论今年结果如何，LBJ可几乎确定的是将保有另一项记录： 历来连续两年最佳PER值的平均。LBJ今年和去年的平均目前是31.78。 老乔最好的连续两年平均也只有31.55。 Obviously, the larger James versus Jordan argument won't be much of a debate until LeBron picks up some hardware in the postseason. Nonetheless, I can't emphasize enough what an extraordinary accomplishment James' past two seasons represent. We've flinched at comparing current players to Jordan after several previous "next Jordans" were found wanting. But that has put up a mental barrier to a declaration that the numbers see as obvious: In terms of regular-season performance, we're watching the next Jordan. 当然我们都知道，很多乡民都认为在LBJ拿到那个冠军戒指前， 把喇叭詹和老乔相比或许没有意义。不过不论如何，我认为LBJ这两年 的不凡成就还是值得赞许。毕竟在後老乔时代，人们找了一堆 「下一位乔神」出来。但是从季赛的表现来看，无疑LBJ才是最接近 乔丹的人物。 I'd argue that we can extend that comparison further. When Jordan was at the same stage of his career as LeBron, the press treated him almost exactly the same. Like James, he was a wondrous regular-season performer who had never won anything important and thus couldn't be compared with the likes of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird. 我甚至可以从另一个角度切入来做比较。老乔当年在LBJ这个生涯阶段时， 受到媒体的批评几乎如出一辄。就如同现在的喇叭詹，媒体认为老乔只是 个没得过冠军戒指的数据魔人，跟魔术强森和大鸟柏德不在同一个天平上。 Looking back, that whole notion seems laughable, if not downright quaint … yet we're falling in the exact same trap. Jordan, remember, didn't win a title until his seventh season. As luck would have it, James is in his seventh season, and his odds of winning a crown have never looked better. With the Lakers faltering down the stretch and the Celtics succumbing to age, only James' nemesis from a year ago -- Orlando -- would rate as an even-money proposition to stop him from winning the trophy. 当我们往回看，媒体的那些批评显得可笑。然而我们现在也在做同样的事。 别忘了老乔在他第七年才拿到冠军，巧合的是，喇叭詹也正处於第七个球季。 而今年跟往年相比也是他最可能拿冠军的一年。 尤其湖人似乎陷入低潮，普赛在跟年纪赛跑，除了魔术是目前最有可能的 程咬金。 That part of the James-Jordan comparison won't be settled for another two months, his regular-season one in a little more than two weeks. 当然关於冠军於否的争论会一直延续到季後赛，不过关於季赛的争论， 两个礼拜後就可以见分晓。 James leads the league in scoring, at least for the moment (Kevin Durant is only 0.2 behind, and if James rests the final couple of games, Durant will have a number to shoot for, David Robinson-style, in the season finale). But LeBron is not just scoring. He's getting his 29.8 points per game with incredibly high-percentage shots. James' true shooting percentage of 60.4 ranks in the league's top 25, and most of the players ahead of him are snipers with much smaller offensive roles. 喇叭詹目前在得分榜上领先群伦，至少目前如此（KD只落後0.2分， 如果LBJ最後几场轻松打，KD或许有机会超前，甚至扮演当时大罗 最後一场球的戏码。） 不过在我看来LBJ不只是得分，他得分的效率超高。他的「真实命中率」 (True shooting %）有60.4%，排在联盟前25名，而在他前面的选手 大多只是扮演狙击手，在进攻上的角色远小於LBJ。 Yet for me, his passing is the most amazing part. In fact, for a wing player, it's eye-popping: James has cracked the league's top 15 in pure point rating even though he plays small forward. (Except for James and San Antonio's Manu Ginobili, every player in the top 40 plays the point). 对我来说，我认为他的传球技巧才是最高明的。事实上，以一个小前锋来说， 简直是惊人！他在控球上的评比（pure point rating）属於联盟前15名， 即使他是打小前锋。（除了LBJ和Manu，其他前40名的选手都是控球後卫） Or try this one on for size: No forward in league history has ever averaged more than eight assists per game until this season; Larry Bird's 7.6 assists per game in 1986-87 came the closest. James is averaging 8.6, even though he's playing in one of the slow-paced eras in league annals and averages a relatively modest 39.0 minutes per game. Put him at Bird's pace in 1986-87, and he'd be averaging a whopping 9.3. 你还不知道有多惊人？那看看这个记录好了， 在联盟历史上没有一位前锋的平均助攻超过8过。 大鸟柏德在86-87球季的7.6次助攻是历来最接近的一次。 而且别忘了LBJ的8.6次助攻还是现在这个年代的篮球步调比较慢的结果。 如果把他放到86-87年那种篮球步调，他的平均助攻将会是9.3次！ The same applies to most of James' numbers. On a per possession basis, his triple-crown stats of 29.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.6 assists crush Oscar Robertson's triple-double season in 1961-62 … or Jordan's 32.5-8.0-8.0 season in 1988-89 … or just about any statistical season in history. 当然同理可证，LBJ的数据放到跟大O的大三元球季相比或是老乔的 88-89球季相比也丝毫不会逊色。（作者意思是如果把篮球进攻步调算进去） All except one, that is. James' output still trails Jordan's peak campaign in 1987-88 by a whisker. He has a chance to glide past him in the final two weeks but, with Cleveland throttling down to coast into the postseason, probably won't. 当然LBJ还落後Jordan在87-88年的个人数据。或许他有机会，不过 看来骑士最後八场比赛会用来调整准备季後赛，所以机会不大。 Nonetheless, it's a season for the ages -- and his second of the like in a row. We've held off on comparing James to Jordan for some good reasons, especially since he hasn't won a title yet. But at this point, there's nobody else left to whom we can compare him. 不过不论如何，以个人数据来看，今年绝对值得名留青史。而且是 LBJ连续第二年得到那麽高的PER值。当然我目前只会把LBJ和老乔做 个人数据的比较而已，毕竟喇叭詹还没有拿到冠军。 不过说实话，至少目前看来，除了喇叭詹，也没有人可以拿来和老乔比了。 ====================================================================== PER Player Efficiency Rating is my overall rating of a player’s per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00 every season. PER值代表球员的效率，简单来说是看每一分钟球员的贡献值。 并且以每一个球季全体球员该季的平均为15来做基准比较得出。 TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player’s shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)] 真实命中率的算法是把罚球和三分球一起考量进去的算法。 公式如下： （全部得分 x 50）除以（总投篮命中数+（罚球命中数 x 0.44）） --

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※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 164.67.139.95 ※ 编辑: kart 来自: 164.67.139.95 (03/31 06:26) ※ DppisMinZhu:转录至看板 NBA 03/31 16:12