MLBTR 一篇概括性的评述，蛮全面的，摘要条列式地翻译一下（有错翻请指正） =========================================================================== Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves By Jeff Todd [October 28, 2013 at 7:48pm CST] http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/offseason-outlook-atlanta-braves.html After returning to the top of the NL East for the first time since their remarkable string of division titles ended in 2006, can the Braves defend their crown in 2014? Guaranteed Contracts * B.J. Upton, OF: $59.8MM through 2017 * Justin Upton, OF: $28.75MM through 2015 * Dan Uggla, 2B: $26MM through 2015 * Gerald Laird, C: $1.5MM through 2014 Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses) * Craig Kimbrel, RP (3.066): $7.25MM projected salary * Kris Medlen, SP (4.137): $5.9MM * Freddie Freeman, 1B (3.033): $4.9MM * Jason Heyward, OF (4.000): $4.5MM * Chris Johnson, 3B (3.144): $4.2MM * Mike Minor, SP (2.138): $3.5MM * Jonny Venters, RP (4.000): $2.3MM * Jordan Walden, RP (3.043): $1.5MM * Jordan Schafer, OF (3.121): $1MM * Elliot Johnson, IF/OF (3.028): $900k * Brandon Beachy, SP (3.014): $900k * Cristhian Martinez, RP (3.158): $800k * Paul Janish, IF (4.145): $725k * Ramiro Pena, IF (3.089): $600k Contract Options * Reed Johnson, OF: $1.6MM club option ($150k buyout) Free Agents * Luis Ayala, Scott Downs, Freddy Garcia, Tim Hudson, Kameron Loe, Paul Maholm, Brian McCann, Eric O'Flaherty * 2014 合约确定4人：42.2M、仲裁14人：38.975M（预测）、球队选择权1人：1.6M 预计总和 82.775M Boosting the Braves' hopes to repeat in 2014 -- and, perhaps, enjoy a lengthier post-season experience -- is quite an impressive slate of arbitration-eligible players. Of course, none of the club's outstanding, homegrown youngsters has yet to be locked up beyond the standard six years of control. Getting a conversation going with some of those talents could well stand high among Atlanta GM Frank Wren's winter priorities, though the Braves have failed to hand a new deal to any of their own players with less than five years of service time in Wren's six seasons at the helm. (Sifting through the many extension candidates, MLBTR's readers voted in favor of long-term deals for Kimbrel, Freeman, Minor, and Julio Teheran). As things stand, tendering contracts to all eligible players is projected to cost north of $35MM for 2014. And only Venters is a non-tender candidate among the players projected to be worth over $1MM. For a team whose opening day payroll has tended to land right around $90MM over the last several seasons, that represents a lot of cash. Though the team is committed to just four players (and one minimal buyout) for next season, that tacks on just over $42MM more. Filling out the rest of the roster with league minimum contracts could push the tab into the $80MM range. Unless the club is able to clear salary through trade or expand its budget, then, there will be relatively little excess available in the coming off-season. * Wren 在位的 6 年间，没有跟任何五年级以下的新秀谈成延长合约过 * 谈一拖拉库 Arb 是 Wren 这个冬天最忙碌的事 * MLBTR 读者票选该给长约的：Kimbrel、Freeman、Minor、Teheran (Heyward 表示..) * 2014 给仲裁续约球员预测约超过 35M，Venter 是可能不续约名单里唯一超过 1M 的 * 过去数年我们的 payroll 都在 90M 左右，绑约的跟仲裁的加一加大概 80M，除非有交 易清空间或老板加码，不然季後没什麽可以玩的空间 Fortunately for the Braves, while Wren has a less-than-perfect track record on big dollar contracts, his front office has proven adept at extracting value from "free-talent" players. Among them, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro, and David Carpenter combined to add over 2 WAR last year, and figure to challenge for important bench and pen roles in 2014. And ESPN's Keith Law notes (Insider link) that more such players are in the pipeline, explaining that bargain bin pickups Juan Jaime, James Hoyt, and Ian Thomas could all appear soon in the Atlanta pen or (in the case of Thomas) even the rotation. That group of players (Schafer excepted, of course) could have a major role in filling out the Atlanta bullpen next season. Kimbrel, Walden, and Luis Avilan seem sure bets to hold down their spots, while Varvaro and Carpenter should have every opportunity to do the same. Otherwise, last year's league-best pen (by ERA and FIP) is in flux, though that doesn't mean it lacks options. David Hale or Alex Wood could work in relief if they fail to earn a starting role (or remain stretched out in Triple-A). The club could bring back the excellent-but-injured Venters or O'Flaherty on a cheap deal. Or the above-noted free talent, perhaps joined by a new waiver wire claim or two, could battle with the club's other minor league pitching (such as Shae Simmons) to round out the corps. In any event, a substantial free agent guarantee seems relatively unlikely. * Wren 签大约的手气不太好，但从 waivers 捡人的眼光却不错。Schafer、Varvaro、 Carpenter 今年贡献了超过 2WAR 并且担起重要的替补及牛棚角色。我们口袋里还有 如 Juan Jaime、James Hoyt、Ian Thomas 可能也会在明年名单里看到他们 * 联盟最好的牛棚：Kimbrel、Walden、Avilan 应该还是可以表现得不错，Varvaro 跟 Carpenter 也是。David Hale 跟 Alex Wood 如果没有得到轮值位置，也会是不错的 选择(或待在3A) * Venters 跟 EOF 也是可以花点代价留下来。或是如同前面提到的 waivers 捡来的球 员跟小联盟新秀如 Shae Simmons 可能都能表现出一点竞争力。总之牛棚这环还没有 必要签个大约来补强 Likewise, as MLBTR's Steve Adams explained in his profile of Hudson, the rotation could be made up solely from in-house options. Minor, Teheran, and Medlen are all locks for a spot, and Beachy probably would be if his health were not at issue. As just noted, Wood and Hale could compete to start, and top prospects J.R. Graham and Sean Gilmartin could be ready to contribute in 2014. Beachy will presumably join the party at some point, depending upon his rehab progress. On the other hand, with veterans Hudson and Maholm hitting free agency, Wren has indicated that he is interested in adding some experience to the rotation. After all, the club considered making a move for Jake Peavy at the trade deadline and claimed Kyle Lohse off of revocable waivers, meaning that the organization was willing to take on significant future salary for a veteran arm. Looking ahead, a reunion with Hudson remains a distinct possibility, particularly since his ankle injury could limit his market. Maholm seems less likely to be brought back, while Freddy Garcia could return as a long man in the pen or as minor league starting depth. Another veteran such as Bronson Arroyo could also be a possibility, but given the options on hand, it seems unlikely that the Braves will stretch the budget for multiple years of such a low-upside option. While many fans have called for the team to add a pitcher at the top of the rotation -- with David Price, Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, and Chris Sale among the hypothetical possibiilities -- it seems unlikely that the Braves could pull off such a deal without giving up arms that are already in the bigs. And that would probably be an inefficient tradeoff given the team's budget constraints. * 先发轮值应该可以让小朋友们搞定：Minor、Teheran、Medlen 能站稳轮值，Hale 跟 Wood 也能角逐。後面还有新秀 J.R. Graham 跟 Sean Gilmartin 可能也有机会在 2014 出线，Beachy 则要看复健的状况 * Wren 想要找个有经验的先发而且不排斥砸点钱，过去曾打过 Peavy 跟 Lohse 的主意 * 重签 Hudson 机会很高，Garcia 能扛长中继或是在小联盟当先发等机会，相对地签 Maholm 的机会因此较低 * Bronson Arroyo 曾经也被列入考虑，但勇士不太可能对二流货色砸大钱 * 很多球迷呼吁球队签个 Ace 来：David Price、Max Scherzer、Homer Bailey、Chris Sale 之类的，不过勇士势必要丢掉潜力年轻人，而且预算会更沉重 The Braves' everyday lineup has some question marks in terms of outlook, but relatively few of composition. Feel free to use your pen in filling out an Opening Day lineup card at first (Freeman), short (Simmons), and the corner outfield (J. Upton, Heyward). Likewise, third (Johnson), catcher (Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt, Laird), and center (B. Upton, Schafer) are highly likely to be filled from within. Though none of these options is a sure thing, they have probably each either done enough in 2013 or (in the case of the elder Upton) received too great a commitment to warrant an upgrade at this point. Of course, the preceding paragraph assumes that incumbent backstop McCann will depart via free agency. There remains some slight possibility that he finds his way back to the only organization he has ever known. But if McCann commands the $80MM commitment that MLBTR's TIm Dierkes predicts, there is virtually no chance that Atlanta can come close enough to convince him to return. That leaves second base, which is the most glaring weakness on the Atlanta roster and perhaps the single position most likely to be acted upon aggressively. Uggla was expected to to hold things down well enough on the back end of his large contract, but he declined precipitously last year, especially after undergoing Lasik surgery mid-season. If any other team is willing to eat a substantial portion of the $26MM still owed to Uggla, Wren would have to consider pulling the trigger. But it isn't as if the organization has an obvious replacement on hand. It would be tough for a contender to hand the full-time job to Tyler Pastornicky, Johnson, or Pena, though they might combine in a platoon. Increasingly, it seems, 24-year-old Tommy La Stella could have a legitimate shot at taking the reigns after a strong showing in Double-A and big start to his AFL campaign. But MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo lists him just 14th among Braves prospects, calling him a "grinder" rather than a budding star. Likewise, in a recent evaluation, ESPN's Keith Law said (paywall) that La Stella flashed only one plus tool (hit) that left him with a relatively low ceiling. Looking outside of the organization, the free agent pickings are slim after Robinson Cano and Omar Infante. While Infante might be of interest, he will likely be too rich for Atlanta. Otherwise, the Braves would likely be looking at some well-traveled players, with Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis (assuming the Dodgers decline his option) among the most attractive options. (There is some history behind a couple of these options: Infante was dealt from Atlanta to pick up Uggla, while Johnson was once non-tendered by the club in 2009.) While the rumor of Atlanta's interest in acquiring Brandon Phillips in exchange for Uggla and a prospect could make sense from the home team's perspective, it is far from clear that the feeling would be shared in Cincinnati. Howie Kendrick of the Angels might be a target, as he is only owed $18.85MM over the next two seasons, and the Braves could stand to part with some of the young pitching desired in Anaheim. Otherwise, a series of lesser keystone possibilities might be had via trade. On the bench, with more attractive middle infield options likely available (see above), Janish's time may be up. Likewise, a poor 2012 and cheap buyout make Reed Johnson seem a decent bet to leave town, especially since the club has several other players capable of manning center. A more substantial catching role would take Gattis out of the reserve outfield mix, leaving room for an addition. Of course, Atlanta has some other internal bench hopefuls like Joey Terdoslavich, and will no doubt be loath to spend much for part-time contributors. * 排 lineup 相对没什麽问题，今年各守位的安排都差不多了，看来没什麽升级空间 * McCann 留下的机会非常小，若如预测的 80M 总值合约来看，勇士出不起这个价格 * 二垒是最该有动作的位置，Uggla 急速衰退，如果有球队还肯出点钱，Wren 肯定会考 虑交易他 * 如果 Uggla 真的走了，二垒的洞会是个问题。Pastornicky、EJ、Pena 都不是合宜的 解。24 岁在 2A 跟 AFL 表现火烫的的 Tommy La Stella 或许有机会，但有的专家对 他的评价以及未来发展并不太高，甚至称他只有 "one plus tool (hit)" * 寻求外部解呢？Cano 跟 Infante 都不太可能，Infante 虽然不错但对勇士来说可能还 是有点贵。Kelly Johnson 跟 Mark Ellis 可能会是不错的选项 * 之前有些乳摸说 Brandon Phillips 是交易的目标但看来不太可能；Howie Kendrick 未来两年只要 18.85M，勇士也能供应天使要的年轻投手 * 替补球员：Janish 看来不太会留，RJ 的 buyout 很便宜也能丢他。Gattis 蹲捕後外 野可能也需要个替补。Joey Terdoslavich 会是个好选择，当然勇士也蛮有机会找些打 工仔来 Some teams are fun to watch in the offseason because they spend big; others, because their constraints make every move a complicated, seemingly momentous endeavor. At least assuming the club maintains its payroll at approximately the same level, the Braves seem clearly to fall in the latter category this year. Strong seasons from several prominent younger players have increased payroll pressure via arbitration, while disappointments from some of the team's few major commitments have reduced the possibility of shedding salary. And the clock is ticking on locking up some of the Braves' top-end young talent before free agency beckons. While Atlanta will undoubtedly return a very good team regardless, it will be fascinating to see how Wren maneuvers to set the club up for the future and fill its few areas of immediate need. * 冬天看大市场球队怎样花钱很有趣，但对勇士有限的预算来说没什麽空间。签大约的几 只让人失望，且年轻仲裁资格的球员越来越贵。当然勇士还是无庸置疑会是很有竞争力 的球队，但看 Wren 如何动作以及补洞还是会是个大课题 -- 　◢██◣██▉█◣◢█◢██◣█◣ ▊◢██◣◢◢◣◣█◣ ▊　┌────┐ 　███◣ █ ███▉██▉▉▉█◣▊██▉▉███▉▉█◣▊　│批兔个板│ 　◥███ █ █◥◤▉██▉▉▉██▊██▉▉███▉▉██▊　│simonown│ ◥██◤██▉█ ▉◥██◤▉◥█▊◥██◤◥◤◥◤▉◥█▊　└────┘ Simon's Blog: http://simonown.blogspot.tw --

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