What's 'wrong' with Skenes? Let's dissect his recent slump Skenes 到底「怎麽了」？一起剖析他近期低潮的原因。 August 5th, 2026 Travis Sawchik https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes-2026-metrics-comparison-deep-dive The question seemed unthinkable a year ago: What's wrong with Paul Skenes? 一年前，这个问题几乎令人难以想像：Paul Skenes 到底怎麽了？ After posting sub-2.00 ERAs in each of his first two seasons -- the first qualified pitcher age 23 or younger to accomplish that since Dwight Gooden in 1984-85 -- Skenes enters Wednesday's start against the Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN) with an ERA approaching 4.00. Skenes 生涯前两个球季的防御率都低於 2.00，成为自 Dwight Gooden 在 1984、1985 年 球季以来，第一位在 23 岁（含）以下、且符合投球局数规定的投手达成此壮举。然而， 在本周三对上酿酒人的先发（美东时间晚上 7:40，ESPN 直播）之前，他本季的防御率已 逼近 4.00。 The issue is not tied to one glaring flaw. It's several small declines that reinforce one another. A little less velocity. A little less movement. Slightly worse command. More balls in the air. A weaker defense behind him. Individually, none are alarming. Together, they've transformed the best pitcher in the NL last season into merely a very good one. 问题并非出在某一项明显的缺陷，而是许多细微的退步彼此交互影响。球速稍微下降、球 路位移减少、控球略微变差、让更多打者击出高飞球，以及身後守备品质下滑。若单独来 看，没有任何一项值得大惊小怪；但综合起来，却让去年国家联盟最具宰制力的投手，变 成仅仅是一位「非常优秀」的投手。 It all leads to another question: Can the elite version of Skenes return? Let ’s diagnose what’s gone wrong and look at whether the 2024-25 version of Skenes could return down the stretch. 这也引出了另一个问题：那个顶尖版本的 Skenes 还能回来吗？ 接下来就让我们分析他究竟出了什麽问题，并探讨 2024、2025 年那个无解的 Skenes， 是否有机会在球季最後冲刺阶段（down the stretch）重现。 mWhere did the velo go? 球速到底跑去哪了？ The most obvious change is that Skenes is not throwing as hard as he did his first two seasons, when his fastball averaged a blistering 98.8 mph as a rookie in 2025, and 98.2 mph last season. His velocity is down to an average of 96.9 mph this season, and it's been in decline throughout the season. 最明显的改变，就是 Skenes 已经不像前两个球季那样火力十足。2025 年菜鸟球季，他的 四缝线速球平均球速高达 98.8 英里；去年则是 98.2 英里。本季平均球速已下降至 96.9 英里，而且整个球季都呈现持续下滑的趋势。 "I think it's funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t have a good outing,” said Skenes during the All-Star break in Philadelphia. "... I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well. I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level." Skenes 在费城明星赛期间表示： 「我觉得很好笑，记者只有在我投得不好时，才会问我球速的问题。」 「……我不认为一定要靠球速才能投好球。我想这大概是我职业生涯第一次球速有点下 降，但我完全不会因此感到压力。我很健康，身体状况很好，也仍然维持在很高的投球水 准。」 But the decline matters. A loss of nearly 2 mph may not sound dramatic, but at the Major League level? It's enormous. MLB batters are hitting .219 against 99 mph fastballs the last two seasons, compared to .242 against 97 mph fastballs. 不过，球速下降确实有影响。少了将近 2 英里，听起来或许不算夸张，但在美国职棒大联 盟，这样的差距其实非常巨大。过去两个球季，大联盟打者面对 99 英里速球的打击率只 有 .219；但面对 97 英里速球时，打击率则提高到 .242。 Skenes mirrors the league-wide marks: Opponents hit .209 against his fastballs last year, but .231 this season. That's still below the MLB average for hitters, but it's one thing trending in the wrong direction. Skenes 的情况也与联盟整体趋势相符。去年，对手面对他的速球打击率仅 .209；本季则 升至 .231。虽然这个数字仍优於大联盟平均水准，但确实是朝着不利方向发展的另一项警 讯。 Also keep in mind there were concerns about Skenes' fastball shape coming out of LSU, one of the few blemishes on his scouting profile. He possesses well-below-average vertical movement on his fastball. Less velocity can make a suspect shape more vulnerable. Moreover, with less velocity generally comes less spin -- his fastball spin rates are down by about 70 rpm -- and that means less spin-based movement. 此外，也别忘了 Skenes 当年离开路易斯安那州立大学（Louisiana State University， LSU）投入选秀时，球探报告中少数被质疑的地方，就是他的速球球路（fastball shape） 。他的速球垂直位移（vertical movement）明显低於联盟平均水准。当球速下降时，原本 就不算理想的球路形状会变得更容易被打者掌握。除此之外，球速下降通常也代表转速会 跟着降低──他的速球转速已下降约 70 rpm ，这也意味着依赖转速所产生的球路位移会 随之减少。 For a pitcher who built his arsenal around overpowering hitters, velocity decline can diminish performance on all pitch types. The run values of Skenes ’ sinker and changeup have turned negative for the first time in his career. 对一位仰赖压制性球威建立球种武器库的投手而言，球速下降可能会影响所有球种的整体 威力。Skenes 的伸卡球与变速球的 Run Value（失分价值），也首度在职业生涯变成负值 。 Perhaps the most surprising metric is Stuff+, a metric that attempts to isolate the quality of a pitch independent of results. Skenes posted a 110 Stuff+ last season. This year, he's at 98. 最令人意外的数据，或许是 Stuff+。Stuff+ 是一项试图排除比赛结果影响、纯粹评估球 质（pitch quality）的进阶指标。Skenes 去年的 Stuff+ 为 110，本季则下降到 98。 Last year, his raw arsenal graded roughly a standard deviation above league average. This season, by that measure, it's merely average. 去年，依照这项指标评估，他的原始球威（raw arsenal）约高於联盟平均一个标准差。但 到了本季，以同样标准来看，他的球威已经只剩下联盟平均水准。 The velocity decline isn't necessarily permanent, though. I asked two pitcher trainers and biomechanical experts at Driveline Baseball to analyze Skenes' mechanics. 不过，球速下滑未必是永久性的。作者特地请教了 Driveline Baseball 的两位投手训练 师暨生物力学专家（biomechanical experts），分析 Skenes 的投球机制。 Their assessments: ●"Earlier in the year, he was stepping across his body a lot and cutting himself off." ●"He has some mechanical issues in his delivery, but they seem to be getting cleaned up since the start of this season." 他们的分析如下： ●「今年球季初期，他跨步时经常踩向身体内侧（stepping across his body），导致投 球动作受到限制（cutting himself off）。」 ●「他的投球动作（delivery）确实存在一些机械性问题，不过从本季开始後，这些问题 似乎正逐渐获得修正。」 So perhaps a work in progress. A velocity bump would be huge for the Pirates ’ stretch run. 因此，目前看来这仍是一项持续调整中的工程。如果 Skenes 能在接下来找回一些球速， 对海盗季末冲刺（stretch run）而言，将会是极大的利多。 Getting squared up 被打者掌握击球时机 The loss of velocity and stuff is tied to another issue. It’s not just the batting average allowed but also the quality of contact. 球速与球威（stuff）的下降，也连带引发另一项问题。受到影响的不只是被打击率 （batting average allowed），更包括被击球品质（quality of contact）。 Skenes’ average exit velocity allowed has increased. His groundball rate has fallen from 51.1% as a rookie to 39.7% this season. More balls are being lifted, and more of them are leaving the park. He's already surrendered 13 home runs, more than in either of his first two full seasons. Skenes 本季被击出的平均击球初速（average exit velocity）明显上升。他的滚地球率 （groundball rate）也从菜鸟球季的 51.1%，下降至本季的 39.7%。打者击出的飞球变多 了，而其中也有更多飞出了全垒打墙。截至目前，他本季已被轰出 13 支全垒打，比生涯 前两个完整球季的任何一年都还要多。 Paul Skenes' Statcast metrics in 2024, 2025 and 2026 https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/d7ooe0z8bzyfhexh3jl4.jpg It also means fewer double plays induced, with Skenes losing opportunities to get himself out of trouble. 这也意味着他制造双杀打（double play）的能力下降，让 Skenes 少了许多靠自己化解 危机的机会。 ●2024: 14 double plays induced 2024 年：制造 14 次双杀打。 ●2025: 13 double plays induced 2025 年：制造 13 次双杀打。 ●2026: 7 double plays induced 2026 年：仅制造 7 次双杀打。 The underlying pitch metrics tell the same story. Hitters are missing his breaking balls by less -- 4.9 inches on average last season versus 3.6 inches this year. 更深入的投球数据也说明了同样的故事。打者挥击他的变化球时，落空的幅度变小了── 去年平均挥空 4.9 寸，今年则只剩 3.6 寸。 Skenes has also raised his arm angle to 26 degrees this year from 23 degrees the previous two years. While still a lower slot than most pitchers, it's up a bit, and perhaps another factor. Again, a little thing. 此外，Skenes 本季的出手角度也从前两年的 23 度提高到 26 度。虽然相较於大多数投手 ，他仍属於较低的出手角度，但确实有所提高，也可能是造成表现变化的另一项因素。同 样地，这又是一个看似不起眼的小改变。 Slipping command and efficiency 控球与投球效率下滑 Another area pitchers largely control is command. And, again, it's not that Skenes is suffering from a staggering loss of command, but it, too, is going in the wrong direction. 投手最能掌控的另一项能力，就是控球（command）。同样地，Skenes 并非突然失去控球能 力，而是控球表现也正逐渐朝着不利的方向发展。 Skenes' walk rate has climbed to a still-good, but career-worst 6.3%. His 108 Command+ is excellent, but also slightly down from last season (112) and 2024 (110). Skenes' percentage of pitches located within the confines of the strike zone dipped from 51% in each of his first two seasons to 46% this year. Skenes 的保送率上升至 6.3%，虽然依旧不错，但已是生涯最差。他的 Command+ 指数仍 高达 108，属於优秀水准，不过也低於去年的 112 与 2024 年的 110。此外，他投进好球 带内的球数比例，也从前两个球季的 51%，下降至本季的 46%。 Given his still-strong underlying command skill, those fewer pitches in the zone speak to a pitcher less confident in his ability to miss bats and overpower in the zone. It suggests a conscious choice -- not skill loss. But more nibbling leads to less efficiency. 考量到他的控球基本能力依然十分出色，好球带内投球比例下降，反而显示他对於自己在 好球带内压制打者、让对手挥空的能力，信心已不像过去那麽充足。这看起来更像是一种 刻意的策略调整（conscious choice），而不是能力退化。然而，投球越倾向於「摸边角 （nibbling）」、避免正面对决，投球效率自然就会下降。 ●2024: 133.0 innings pitched across 23 starts (5.78 innings per start) ●2025: 187.2 innings pitched across 32 starts (5.86 innings per start) ●2026: 124.2 innings pitched across 23 starts (5.42 innings per start) ● 2024 年：23 场先发投 133.0 局，平均每场 5.78 局。 ● 2025 年：32 场先发投 187.2 局，平均每场 5.86 局。 ● 2026 年：23 场先发投 124.2 局，平均每场 5.42 局。 Skenes said before last season that his goal was greater efficiency -- to be able to reach 240 innings pitched in a season. Instead, it’s going in the opposite direction. Skenes 在去年球季开始前曾表示，他的目标是提升投球效率，希望单季能投满 240 局。 然而，目前的发展却正好朝着相反方向前进。 The defense isn't helping … and he's a bit unlucky 守备帮不上忙……运气也不太站在他这边 Over the offseason, the Pirates consciously sacrificed some defense in exchange for a stronger lineup. It's helped them climb into the NL Wild Card race, but it hasn't helped Skenes' performance. His expected ERA, or xERA (2.94), remains nearly a run lower than his actual ERA (3.90) suggesting the defense has amplified some of the decline. 休赛季期间，海盗有意牺牲部分守备能力，换取更具攻击火力的打线。这项策略确实帮助 球队重新加入国家联盟外卡竞争，但对 Skenes 的投球成绩却没有帮助。他的预期防御率 （expected ERA，xERA）仅 2.94，比实际防御率 3.90 低了将近 1 分，显示守备问题进 一步放大了他的成绩退步。 Last year's Pirates ranked seventh in Outs Above Average (+18). This year's club ranks 22nd (-13). The club allowed a .281 BABIP last year, compared to .298 this season. More grounders are rolling through the infield. 去年海盗的 Outs Above Average（OAA，守备额外制造出局数）排名全联盟第 7 名（+18 ）；今年则跌至第 22 名（-13）。球队去年的 BABIP（Batting Average on Balls in Play──场内安打率）为 .281，本季则上升到 .298。换句话说，有更多滚地球穿越内野 形成安打。 This is an inverse of the situation his previous two years, when his ERA in 2024 (1.96) and in 2025 (1.97) were lower than his xERA figures (2.50 in 2024) and (2.65 in 2025). 这与他前两个球季的情况正好相反。2024 年他的防御率为 1.96，低於 2.50 的 xERA； 2025 年防御率 1.97，同样低於 2.65 的 xERA。当时他的实际成绩甚至比预期数据还要更 好。 Skenes’ expected numbers are not that much worse than a year ago. But a step back in stuff, command and efficiency -- when combined with a porous defense -- is inflating his overall numbers. 其实，Skenes 的各项预期数据（expected metrics）与去年相比，并没有明显恶化。然而 ，球威（stuff）、控球（command）与投球效率（efficiency）都略为退步，再加上漏洞 较多的守备（porous defense），最终让他的整体成绩被放大得更加难看。 https://shorturl.at/lKJ82 The good news 好消息是…… The encouraging news for Pittsburgh is Skenes hasn't suddenly become ordinary. 对匹兹堡来说，最令人振奋的是：Skenes 并没有突然变成一位平凡的投手。 His 24% K-BB% mark is elite. He's sixth among all pitchers with 3.6 fWAR. He's simply become a little less extraordinary in several ways. 他的 K-BB%（三振率减保送率）仍高达 24%，依旧属於顶尖等级。他也以 3.6 fWAR （FanGraphs 胜场贡献值）排名全联盟投手第 6。他只是许多方面都比过去稍微没那麽超 凡而已。 Baseball is unforgiving at the highest level. Lose a little velocity. Miss a few more locations. Allow a few more balls in the air behind a weaker defense. Small changes become big results. 在最高层级的棒球舞台，任何细微变化都会被无情放大。球速少一点、失投多几球、让更 多球飞向空中，再加上身後守备较弱。每一项都只是小小的改变，但累积起来，就足以造 成截然不同的结果。 The encouraging part is that none of these trends suggests a broken pitcher. Small declines often require only small adjustments. 值得乐观的是，这些趋势没有任何一项显示 Skenes 已经「坏掉了（broken pitcher）」 。很多时候，这种幅度不大的退步，只需要一些细微调整，就有机会恢复原本的水准。 And for a Pirates club chasing October, nothing would matter more over the final two months -- not even their revamping of the bullpen at the Deadline -- than finding the Cy Young, sub-2.00 ERA version of Skenes. 对这支全力争取十月季後赛的海盗而言，在最後两个月，没有任何事情比找回那位具备赛 扬奖等级、防御率低於 2.00 的 Skenes 更重要。即使是交易截止日重新打造牛棚的重要 补强，也比不上这件事的重要性。 He's been missing lately, but he's not that far away. 那个版本的 Skenes 最近确实消失了一段时间。但他，其实并没有离我们太远。 --Columnist Travis Sawchik has covered MLB since 2013 with a focus on data-based analysis and enterprise reporting.-- —专栏作家（Columnist）Travis Sawchik 自 2013 年起报导美国职棒大联盟（MLB） ，专长於数据分析（data-based analysis）与深度专题报导（enterprise reporting） 。 ---- 今日对酒鬼先发 Skenes(L, 9-10) IP H R ER BB K HR ERA 5.0 2 3 3 4 6 0 3.96 --

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