ESPN记者Kiley McDaniel一年一度的FA预测 https://reurl.cc/aM5MmY 年份 总额 入札金 5.今井达也 6年 135M 22.125M 10.村上宗隆 5年 80M 13.875M 21.冈本和真 3年 36M 6.925M Kiley McDaniel给的评语 今井达也 Imai likely gets the biggest deal of any foreign professional this winter and is more of a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter with some risk to get there than a poten tial ace, but his age and the lack of a qualifying offer will help bring up the amount teams are willing to pay for him. Imai will be subject to the posting sys tem; the posting fee for this projected contract would be just over $22 million, paid to his NPB club, for an all-in cost of just over $157 million ($26.2M AAV) . 今井很可能会成为今年冬天所有海外球员中拿到最大合约的那一位，虽然他更像是一名稳定 的二号或三号先发投手，而非潜力十足的王牌，但他的年龄以及身上没QO，将让各队愿意开 出更高金额 A big selling point on Imai is his cratering walk rate, going from a BB/9 of 5.1 to 4.1 to 3.6 to 2.5 over the past four seasons, punctuated by his 2025 line: 1 63⅔ IP and a 1.92 ERA. Imai is 5-foot-11 and throws from a lower slot, so he cr eates a flat plane, excellent for swings and misses at the top of the zone for h is 93-97 mph four-seam fastball that hit 99 mph last season. His miss rate on th e pitch wasn't elite because he didn't throw it at the top of the zone very ofte n, but that's something that can be fine-tuned in the big leagues. 今井的一大卖点，是他逐年明显改善的保送率 过去四年他的BB/9从 5.1 → 4.1 → 3.6 → 2.5，进步幅度惊人 2025年他投出163又2/3局、防御率1.92的成绩 今井身高约180 公分，采用较低的投球出手点，因此能制造出平坦的投球轨迹，这让他的四 缝线快速球（93–97英里，最高达99英里）在好球带上缘非常具有挥空效果 不过他的这颗速球挥空率尚未达到顶级水准，主要是因为他并不常把球投在上缘；这部分进 入大联盟後仍有微调空间 Imai has an above-average splitter, but his slider is a more interesting topic. His slider doesn't slide: It averages arm-side movement, like Trey Yesavage's, s o it can be an effective pitch even if it's unusual to see (especially when pair ed with a splitter and above-average fastball velocity, like Yesavage does). The re's some conventional wisdom in baseball that a backup slider is the best pitch in baseball (because nobody knows when a pitcher will misthrow the pitch like t hat), but that's meant as a one-off, not a recurring quality to shoot for. 今井的指叉球品质在平均之上，但更值得注意的是他的滑球 他的滑球其实「不太滑」，反而平均有向投手手臂方向（arm-side）的移动，类似Trey Yes avage的滑球，虽然这样的球路不太常见，但当与指叉球和高於平均的速球结合时，能形成 相当有效的配球组合 棒球界有句戏言：「最强的滑球是失投的滑球」，因为打者根本预测不到那种误差，但这句 话通常是玩笑，并不是投手应该刻意追求的特性 You could question Imai's size or fastball miss rate or shorter track record of elite command, but the biggest concern teams have is if his slider will play in the big leagues for the long term. It played well this season, with a 45% miss r ate and .212 xwOBA, both well better than MLB average for a slider. These qualit ies add up to both uniqueness in Imai's shapes and release traits as well as adj ustability due to his improving command: Some teams see these two qualities as t he secret to projecting longevity and improvement with pitchers. 外界可能会质疑今井的体格、速球挥空率，或是他顶级控球能力的样本仍不够长，但球团最 大的疑虑在於——他的滑球是否能在大联盟长期发挥作用 今年这颗滑球表现优异，挥空率达 45%，预期加权上垒率（xwOBA）仅 .212，远优於MLB平 均 这些特质显示出今井在球质变化与出手机制上的独特性，再加上不断提升的控球能力，使他 具备可调整性与成长潜力；部分球队甚至认为这正是评估投手长期稳定与进步的关键 Every team would love to land a steady midrotation starter on a deal where half of it will take place in his 20s. If I miss this projection by $25 million or mo re, it'll probably be because he got more money, not less. 任何球队都梦想能签下一位正值巅峰期、能稳定担任先发轮值中段的投手 若这份合约最终与预测金额相差超过 2,500万美元，那极可能是因为他拿得更多，而非更少 村上宗隆 Murakami missed being age-eligible to be posted last winter by a few months. His posting process has been anticipated since he burst onto the scene in 2022 and hit 56 home runs in his age-22 season in Japan. Since then, a combination of inj uries, positional questions and contact issues has dampened evaluators' enthusia sm a bit. 自他在 2022 年以22岁之龄在日本击出 56 支全垒打、震撼球界以来，他的入札挑战美职就 备受期待 不过，随着近年出现的伤病、守备位置疑虑，以及contact问题，外界对他的评价热度略有 下降 On the bright side, Murakami is a left-handed hitter with massive raw power: His 90th percentile exit velos would've been fifth in MLB, his maximum exit velo wo uld be 12th and his hard-hit rate would be first. On the other hand, he's probab ly a long-term first baseman (but hasn't really played there before), his contac t rates would be among the worst in MLB and he has faced lesser velocity in NPB. Some evaluators think his contact rate could improve -- even while facing bette r pitchers in the U.S. -- if he can make some mechanical/approach adjustments, b ut that's obviously speculative. 好的一面是，村上是一名拥有惊人力量的左打者：若把他今年日职数据放在美职比，他的击 球初速可排在MLB第5名，最大击球初速第12名，而强劲击球率更将是全联盟第1名 不过另一方面，他可能最终只能长期镇守一垒（但实际上一垒经验并不多），他的contact% 若换算到MLB水准会属於联盟後段班，而且他在日本职棒所面对的球速普遍偏慢 部分球探认为，若他能调整打击机制与选球策略，即使面对美职更强的投手，他的contact% 仍有改善空间，但这终究只是推测 The bull case is that Murakami's combination of elite exit velos, hitting from t he left side, having some defensive value in the infield and being in his mid-20 s is rare enough on the free agent market to get him an eight-figure AAV over a five- or six-year deal, with some execs assuming the total outlay plus posting f ee will eclipse $100 million, possibly by a big margin. It'll take a team with t hat perspective of Murakami to get to that number because other evaluators see a risky, one-dimensional player here. 对村上的乐观预测是：他结合了顶级击球初速、左打优势、一定的内野防守价值，以及仍在 二十多岁的年龄，这样的条件在自由球员市场上极为罕见，足以让他拿到年均八位数美元（ AAV超过1,000万美元）、为期五到六年的合约 有些球团高层甚至认为，连同入札金在内，总金额可能超过 1亿美元，甚至远高於此 但要达到这个价位，前提是球队必须相信村上的长期价值；不少球探仍视他为高风险、偏单 一面向的打者 A reasonable expectation is Murakami can be an immediate home run threat with a solid walk rate but a low average and not much in the way of baserunning or defe nsive value -- maybe Kyle Manzardo/Matt Wallner on the lower end, Spencer Torkel son as a medium comp and Brent Rooker as the hopeful outcome. The above projecte d contract might look weird for that set of comps, and there are a number of tea ms that wouldn't go over $50 million for Murakami, but there are also not many m id-20s position players on the free agent market with a clear carrying tool and no QO; these sorts of players demand a high price on the trade market if they're even available. A comp that comes up is Joey Gallo, who most fans think was alw ays a bad player, but he did post 4.4 WAR in his age-27 season, and next year wi ll be Murakami's age-26 season. 合理的预期是：村上进入美职後会立刻成为具威胁性的长打炮手，具备不错的保送能力，但 打击率偏低，跑垒与守备贡献有限 若要找比对选手，低标可参考Kyle Manzardo、Matt Wallner，中间层级是 Spencer Torkel son，而理想情况则是 Brent Rooker 以这样的比较基准来看，先前提到的合约金额或许显得偏高，部分球队不会为村上开出超过 5,000万美元，但考虑到自由市场上极少有年仅二十多岁、具备明确核心技能且没有QO的打 者，这类球员在交易市场上往往要价极高 有球探将他与Joey Gallo相提并论——虽然许多球迷认为Gallo是失败例子，但他在27岁那 季仍打出4.4 WAR；而明年村上将满 26岁 Remember Yoshinobu Yamamoto went for almost double of many of his pre-offseason contract projections with those same market factors also on his side, though he' s a starting pitcher. Murakami is hitting the market 3½ years younger than Masa taka Yoshida was as a free agent with a similar amount of defensive and baserunn ing value, and Yoshida got $90 million from the Red Sox. I'm striking a bit of a balance with my projection, but I could see Murakami's ultimate deal being arou nd $50 million or well over $100 million (before posting fee), with the higher n umber more likely. 要记得山本由伸去年获得的合约金几乎是季前预测的两倍；在市场条件相似的情况下，他最 终签下天价合约（虽然他是先发投手） 村上进入自由市场时，比吉田正尚还年轻3年半，两者在守备与跑垒价值上相近，而吉田当 时从红袜拿到9,000万美元 综合考量後，我预估村上的最终合约可能在5,000万美元到超过1亿美元之间（不含入札金） ，而更高金额的情况更为可能 We can profile the sorts of teams that will be the most enthusiastic bidders. Te ams with big payrolls that also highly value exit velo and age might see this ga mble as an enticing one: The Yankees are one team that fits on both counts and t he Cubs could fit as well. Chicago has Kyle Tucker hitting free agency along wit h Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner entering walk years, while Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara and Jonathon Long are battling for long-term spots, so the Cubs could add Murakami to that group to get some t ime at the four corner spots and DH. 接下来可以预测哪些球队最有可能积极参与竞标： 那些拥有庞大薪资空间、又重视击球初速与年龄潜力的球队，会特别对村上感兴趣 洋基是符合这两项条件的球队之一，小熊也同样合适 芝加哥目前预计Kyle Tucke将成为自由球员，Ian Happ、铃木诚也与Nico Hoerner也即将进 入合约年；同时，Matt Shaw、Moises Ballesteros、Owen Caissie、Kevin Alcantara、Jo nathon Long等年轻球员正在竞争长期位置 因此小熊若引进村上，可让他在一、三垒及指定打击轮替出赛，补强阵容深度 冈本和真 Like Murakami, Okamoto primarily played third base in NPB and likely moves to fi rst base in short order in MLB. Unlike Murakami, Okamoto has played a lot of fir st base, so there will be less of a breaking-in period as he's also getting used to big league pitching. Okamoto has a track record of strong on-base percentage s in Japan, though some evaluators think he could be challenged by the higher ve locity in MLB. He has plus raw power and an excellent feel for getting to it in games, giving him some ceiling if his contact rates in MLB are good enough. A ri ght-handed-hitting (likely) first baseman who will turn 30 next June and has no big league experience is still a bit of a risk without a ton of ceiling, but Oka moto is a good bet to be a solid contributor, with a chance to be more if it all translates. 和村上宗隆一样，冈本和真在日本职棒主要守三垒，不过若转战美职，预计很快就会改守一 垒 只不过不同的是，冈本过去已经有相当多一垒守备经验，因此他在适应大联盟投手的同时， 不需要太长的守备过渡期 冈本在日本的生涯中一向拥有稳定的上垒率纪录，尽管有部分球探认为他可能会受到美职更 快球速的挑战 他具备长打力量，也拥有出色的比赛解读能力，若能在美职维持足够的Contact，仍有相当 高的上限 虽然作为一名右打的一垒手、且明年六月将满30岁、又尚未有美职经验的球员，仍带有一定 风险、潜力有限 但整体而言，冈本依旧被视为一位可靠的即战力打者，若顺利适应环境，他甚至有机会成为 超出预期的战力 --

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