今年因为是2020 Coronavirus只选五轮之後的选秀,这些人平常根本不会去念大学,品质是 特别好尤其是最前段. 绿帽本身结构也有一些改变,现在David Forst掌权後不会是Beane去make the call(Kyler Murray...),且绿帽球场Funding Deal通过,不一定像以前先选regular再去 卖掉的模型. 今年市场上有公认的Top 5,绿帽在#6就是等前面任何人(especially #3 #5)上去挤一个下 来,否则还有安全牌,看不出来需要用到其他人的可能. Draft lottery只有抽到#6(https://bit.ly/3VH0YC6 https://bit.ly/3UJBYsm),不过反 正明年会再抽一次... Draft order照新CBA改成前六是Lottery pick,中间十二照胜率,後面照季後赛结果和 revenue-sharing status. 此外新CBA十轮後超过150,000才会计入bonus pool(https://bit.ly/45TXSQz). 而新的transfer portal rules(https://bit.ly/4617o4D https://bit.ly/43mWapd)使得 大学更容易得到好球员如Paul Skenes. 今年bonus pool是第五的$14,255,600. 时间 July 9 7:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 1-2, CB Round B and FA compensation picks June 10 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 3-10 June 11 2:00 p.m. (ET) Rounds 11-20 顺位 1st(28) COMP(11) 2nd(22) COMP(9) 3rd(31) 4th(30) COMP(6) after5th #6 #39 #41 #72 #103 #139,#166 revenue sharing多发了#39 以下老样子以#6为主 5.Max Clark L/L OF HS: Franklin Age:18.6 .646/.808/1.215 6HR 52BB/5SO 35SB Potential five-tool center fielder: plus bat speed and smooth swing, average raw power, true center fielder, plus-plus speed, 65-70 arm. Extremely competitive. Only 6% swing-and-miss rate in national showcase events. Five tool且Whiff rate是elite,若不是今年不会排到这麽後面. 此外他在社群媒体上的影响力大过其他人,令人担心不知道是否满足於状况不好的 organization. https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-max-clark-of https://youtu.be/njHB2_7JkH8 https://youtu.be/0mJzCxwXxEE 9.Jacob Wilson R/R SS College: Grand Canyon Age:21.3 .412/.461/.635 6HR 19BB/5SO 8SB-9ATT Son of former All-Star SS Jack Wilson (assistant coach at Grand Canyon). Advanced bat-to-ball skills and hand-eye coordination, 40-50 in game power, true shortstop with 55 arm. Great kid. Outlying 92%-94.4% Contact rate from WAC (97.4% Zone Contact), even lower whiff-rate vs plus velocity. 100.2mph 90th% EV. Chase% 25.5%. Power only from the pull side. One of the lowest HH LA among any college hitters (6.8 degree), Barrel% also just 11.8%. 真正的outlier,可以待在SS, elite contact rate(我不知道曾经有谁比92%-94.4%高过虽 然是WAC),很低的90th% EV和launch angle. Launch angle应当是可以从approach去改,90th% EV有本身训练也有天分程度,即使没有他 要当SS regular应没有问题. 虽然市场常提到Top5,我只觉得前面偏Stats的队最好不要抢先选走他.. https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-jacob-wilson-ss https://youtu.be/SXJuKUDTbnQ https://youtu.be/qlEl702kTg4 10.Kyle Teel L/R C College: Virginia Age:21.4 .407/.475/.655 13HR 32BB/36SO 5SB-6ATT Super athletic catcher, good bat speed, control the strike zone well, plus arm. Stats improved from the 2022 season. Makes USA National Team in 2021 and 2022. Tendency to expand the zone at times but he contacts (https://bit.ly/3oX9zW0). Receiving, framing skills need to be improved. 82% Contact rate, mediocre vs plus velocity, 105.8mph 90th% EV increased from '22 102.6mph. Chase% 22%. 绿帽rumor之一,今年才冲到Top10,即使不能待Catcher也可以去OF. https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-kyle-teel-c https://youtu.be/eDHskBQgGMw https://youtu.be/m_JYhgrErdk 11.Jacob Gonzalez L/R SS College: Mississippi Age:21.1 .327/.435/.564 10HR 35BB/28SO 0SB-2ATT Above-average hit, above-average raw power. mixed reviews on SS defense, mediocre range but good instinct and action. 55 arm. Good plate discipline and strike zone control. 85% Contact rate, 104.2mph 90th% EV. Chase% 24%. Long track record from prep and SEC, played shortstop for USA National Team. Solid但不是excellent,以#6来说ceiling或确定性不如其他选择. https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-jacob-gonzalez-ss https://youtu.be/ubzAgx0rrtU https://youtu.be/lD-XC7ckH0c 有可能发生的几个Scenario: (1) Someone #1收discount(Crews doesn't want to go 1-1)然後後面连锁反应後Top5掉 一个出来 (2) #3只想拿下一个大学棒子造成Top5掉一个出来 (3) #5不拿Top5剩的最後一个 (4) 其他(Scott Boras要价...) 若发生对绿帽较为有利 Other notable guys: 1. Dylan Crews R/R OF Well-rounded toolset and performance. 75% Contact rate, 109.6mph 90th% EV. Chase% 20%. 2. Paul Skenes RHP Best draft pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole. 98-101mph fastball, 70 grade slider, Stuff+ 223. 3. Wyatt Langford R/R OF 70 raw power, 70 runner, similar stats, less defensive value than Crews. 80% Contact rate, 107.6mph 90th% EV. Chase% 21%. 4. Walker Jenkins L/R OF One of the best hit/power combo in prep class, smooth and polished swing. Same adviser as Crews (Boras). 6. Chase Dollander RHP Came into the year in the 1-1 mix. Command not as sharp and stuff not as consistent. Slider is flatter and lost bite. Stuff+ 179. Mock BA:1206/0316/0511/0518/0608 Max Clark/Jacob Gonzalez/Jacob Wilson/Noble Meyer/Rhett Lowder MLB.com:1215/0426/0503/0505/0519/0602/0609/0617/0622/0629/0706 Walker Jenkins/Chase Dollander,Jacob Wilson/ Jacob Wilson/Jacob Wilson/Kyle Teel/Kyle Teel/ Kyle Teel/Brayden Taylor/Jacob Wilson/Brayden Taylor/Brayden Taylor PG:1104/0418/0428/0703 Dylan Crews/Wyatt Langford/Walker Jenkins/Kyle Teel KL:0524/0620/0629 Kyle Teel/Kyle Teel/Jacob Wilson ESPN:0503/0530/0626/0706 Jacob Gonzalez/Jacob Gonzalez/Max Clark --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 42.79.249.235 (台湾) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Athletics/M.1688701263.A.86C.html ※ 编辑: ThomasHSNU (42.79.249.235 台湾), 07/07/2023 12:41:14