Athlon Baseball 2009 Houston Astros Preview One of the oldest adages in baseball is, “You must be strong up the middle.” The Astros are far from strong in several key positions, such as catcher, center field and starting pitching. Manager Cecil Cooper did a marvelous job the second half of last year getting the Astros into playoff contention, especially with Carlos Lee missing the final seven weeks. But Houston needs a couple of its starters, beyond bell cow Roy Oswalt, to turn in strong seasons. Can Michael Bourn develop into an everyday center fielder? Can any of the catchers hit enough to help the offense? The Astros will have to resolve some of these questions if they are going to challenge in a stronger-than-it-used-to-be National League Central Division. Rotation The Astros’ starting pitching has amounted to Oswalt and a lot of praying ever since Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte fled back to the New York Yankees after 2006. Houston will start the ’09 season in much the same condition. Veteran Brian Moehler moved from long relief to the rotation to help rescue last year’ s team. Lefthander Wandy Rodriguez lowered his ERA by more than a point from 2007, but he still won only nine games, same as the year before. The Astros got a good half season out of lefty Randy Wolf (6–2, 3.57), but decided not to resign him. Houston may have gotten a bargain when it brought in veteran lefthander Mike Hampton, a former Astro, to replace Wolf. Brandon Backe has yet to fulfill his potential and may be running out of opportunities. He hurts himself with too many walks and home runs. He allowed a league-worst 36 dingers last season in 31 starts. Bullpen General manager Ed Wade pieced together a bullpen in 2008 that fit together far better than anyone had the right to imagine. After an early hiccup or two, closer Jose Valverde did a marvelous job, leading the National League with 44 saves. The other roles were less clearly defined, but Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak turned in strong seasons. Choosing lefthander Wesley Wright from the Dodgers as a Rule 5 free agent couldn’t have turned out better. He’s a little guy, but he did a solid job, appearing in 71 games, and at 24 should get better. When the Yankees decided they didn’t need veteran LaTroy Hawkins anymore, the Astros traded for him. Hawkins gave up only one earned run in 24 appearances for Houston. Chris Sampson lost his job in the rotation and became the long man out of the pen. Middle infield Miguel Tejada built his reputation as an offensive shortstop, but he played better defense in ’08 than many expected. The Astros would like to give Tejada, who will turn 35 in May, more rest. He played in 158 games last season. But Mark Loretta, who backed up Tejada last year, is gone. Conversely, the Astros need to get more work out of second baseman Kazuo Matsui, who played in only 96 games last year because of injuries. Wade signed Matsui partially for his speed and needs more than 37 walks and 20 stolen bases out of him. Veteran Geoff Blum can play second to rest Matsui. Houston must decide on a backup for Tejada; rookies Edwin Maysonet and Tommy Manzella are two candidates. Corners Third baseman Ty Wigginton turned in his best full season in the majors last year (.285, 23 HRs), but the Astros decided his price tag would be too high for 2009 and - didn’t offer him arbitration. Blum took over at third last season after Wigginton moved to left field in August to replace the injured Lee. Blum will probably start, with veteran Aaron Boone brought in to share the position, unless Chris Johnson can make a successful jump up from Double-A. First baseman Lance Berkman is simply one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s a career .302 hitter and is underrated defensively. He made his fifth All-Star appearance last year and, with Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell retired, is the face of the franchise. He was named National League Player of the Month for May when he hit .471 with nine home runs and 22 RBIs. Outfield Lee was on his way to a career year when he was hit by a pitch on his left hand Aug. 9, ending his season. Lee figured to end up with about 40 homers and 130 RBIs. Center field is the question mark. Bourn arrived in the Brad Lidge trade last year to play center and bat leadoff. He proved he could play a superb center field but was a disappointment at the plate, hitting a mere .229. He stole 41 bases but could have had many more if his on-base percentage hadn’t been a measly .288. If he doesn’t hit better than last year, veteran Darin Erstad will be playing more often in center. Hunter Pence started in center in 2007 and proved he belonged in right field instead. He made a successful transition last year defensively but was inconsistent at the plate. With his combination of power and speed (he runs out every ground ball), he’s a better hitter than his .269 average last season. He struck out too often last year. Catching Poor-hitting catchers are becoming an Astros tradition. Brad Ausmus cracked the .250 barrier only once in the last six seasons. But Ausmus made up for his lack of hitting by doing an outstanding job managing the pitching staff and calling the game. Neither Humberto Quintero, who boasts a strong arm, nor J.R. Towles has proved himself as a hitter. Towles showed flashes in his September 2007 call-up but flopped last year when given the starting job to begin the season. Quintero is a career .230 hitter. Bench The Astros had a superb bench last year with the veteran trio of Erstad, Blum and Loretta. Erstad and Blum could both end up in the starting lineup this year, and the Astros let Loretta get away, which could be a mistake. They signed 32-year-old Jason Michaels, who can play all three outfield positions, as the fifth outfielder. Boone brings experience but doesn’t have the versatility defensively of Blum and Loretta, who could also play shortstop. A rookie, possibly Maysonet, could very well be the sixth infielder. Management Wade, in his first season as Houston’s general manager, made three major trades last offseason. Two of them worked out very well: the acquisition of Tejada from Baltimore and Valverde from Arizona. But the trade of Lidge, who helped Philadelphia win the World Series, turned sour considering what the Astros got in return, though Geary had a good year out of the bullpen. Owner Drayton McLane likes to keep the payroll reasonable, and that prevented Wade from making any major deals this offseason, such as going after Jake Peavy or any of the other high-priced starters on the market. Instead, Wade brought in veterans on the cheap. Final analysis Even with Lee healthy for the whole season, the Astros still have too many holes in their lineup offensively, particularly at catcher and in center field. Bourn’s speed is useless if he can’t get on base. That would make Matsui the leadoff hitter. Similar to Bourn, he doesn’t walk often enough. The 7-8-9 spots in the batting order appear to be pretty weak. Houston needs someone after Oswalt to become a solid No. 2 starter and win 15 games. The rest of the rotation is a crapshoot. No matter how well the bullpen pitches, it can’t win many games pitching from behind. The Astros will definitely need some breaks, and major contributions by veterans such as Erstad, Blum and Hampton to make the playoffs. Beyond the Boxscore Dance, dance, dance Closer Jose Valverde, who led the National League in saves with 44, is known for his emotions on the mound, particularly after securing a win for his team. Would you believe he has toned down his act? “I was so crazy in the minor leagues, when I struck out some guys, I would dance,” he says. Valverde says his dancing so infuriated the opposing manager once in Triple-A that it nearly caused a brawl. Another Papelbon Righthander Josh Papelbon, Jonathan’s younger brother, went 4 –3 with a 4.46 ERA in 39 relief appearances for Class A Lancaster (Calif.) in 2008. Josh, 25, recorded 24 saves in three years in college at North Florida. He was originally drafted by Boston in the 48th round in 2006. His twin brother, Jeremy, is a lefthander in the Cubs organization. Age before beauty The Astros have several seasoned players, led by reliever Doug Brocail, who will turn 42 in May. Righthander Brian Moehler is 37, lefthander Mike Hampton will be 37 in September, reliever LaTroy Hawkins is 36, third baseman Geoff Blum will be 36 in April, shortstop Miguel Tejada will be 35 in May and outfielder Darin Erstad will be 35 in June. Long division Houston finished with a 43–35 record in the Central Division in ’08. The Astros owned a 9–8 edge over the division-winning Chicago Cubs and beat Cincinnati 12 out of 15 times. They managed a split at 8–8 against last-place Pittsburgh and lost the season series to Milwaukee and St. Louis, 7– 8. Saying goodbye to a friend Hampton, signed by Houston in the offseason, pitched the final game of the 2008 regular season for Atlanta at Houston. He served up a home run pitch to his former catcher with the Astros, Brad Ausmus, who had already announced that it would be his last season playing for Houston. Hampton did not deny that he gave Ausmus an easy pitch, but he pointed out that he made Ausmus look bad on the catcher’s next at-bat, striking him out. “The last at-bat is the one everyone remembers,” he joked. Farm System 2008 Top Draft Pick — Catching is one of the Astros’ biggest needs, so they chose Jason Castro with the 10th pick overall. He helped Stanford reach the 2008 College World Series, where the Cardinal went 2–2. He led Stanford in hitting at .376 with 14 homers and 73 RBIs, The 6'3" Castro, a left-handed batter, hit .275 for Class A Tri-City last summer. With the unsettled catching situation at the big league level, Castro could move up quickly through the organization. He may have a shot at making the majors as soon as 2010. Castro, who was first drafted by Boston in the 43rd round in 2005, also played some first base in college. 2007 Top Pick — Derek Deitrich, 3B, St. Ignatius (Ohio) The Astros never signed the former third-round pick. Chose to play at Georgia Tech. 2006 Top Pick — Max Sapp, C, Bishop Moore (Fla.) High School Must improve on .200 average and four homers in 74 games at Class A Lexington. 2005 Top Pick — Brian Bogusevic, LHP, Tulane Moved to outfield last summer and hit .371 with three homers in 42 games for Double-A Corpus Christi. Made the Astros’ 40-man roster. 2004 Top Pick — Hunter Pence, OF, Texas-Arlington Second-rounder should go down as one of the best picks in franchise history. 2003 Top Pick — Jason Hirsh, RHP, Cal Lutheran Traded to Colorado after the 2006 season as part of the disastrous deal for Jason Jennings. Other Prospects (age on Opening Day) 3B Chris Johnson (24) Possible 3B of the future hit only .218 in 30 games for Triple-A Round Rock after hitting .324, 12 HRs and 58 RBIs in Double-A. RHP Felipe Paulino (25) Spent most of last season rehabbing a pinched nerve. Could challenge for a spot in the Houston rotation if he is healthy. SS Tommy Manzella (25) Good defensive player who could take Mark Loretta’s spot on the roster as a valuable utility infielder. RHP Bud Norris (24) Turned in a good season at Double-A, but probably needs a year at Triple-A before competing for a job in the Houston rotation. RHP Brad James (24) Another good starting pitching prospect. Part of the 40-man roster going into spring but could use more time in the minors. Statistician 1 >> Earned runs allowed by reliever LaTroy Hawkins in 24 appearances after he was acquired by the Astros in a July 30 trade with the Yankees. 11 >> Uniform number that lefthander Mike Hampton will wear this season in honor of his good friend, catcher Brad Ausmus, who wore the number for 10 years with the Astros. They were teammates in Houston in 1997 and ’98. 12 >> Home runs switch-hitter Lance Berkman needs to reach 300 for his career. .347 >> Berkman’s 2008 batting average before the All-Star break. .259 >> Berkman’s 2008 batting average after the All-Star break. 41 >> Stolen bases by Michael Bourn last season, the most by an Astro since Craig Biggio stole 50 in 1998. 42-24 >> Astros’ record after the All-Star break, second-best in the majors, a half game behind the Angels. 44 >> Saves by closer Jose Valverde in his first year in Houston, tying the club record set by Billy Wagner in 2003. Difference Maker The Astros took a chance by signing free agent Mike Hampton. The lefthander missed the entire 2007 with a strained left oblique, then went 3–4 with a 4.85 ERA in 13 starts for Atlanta last season. But he allowed four or fewer earned runs in each of his last nine starts, lasting at least six innings in each one. He pitched for the Astros from 1994-99, highlighted by a 22–4 record with a 2.90 ERA in ’99. If he wins a spot in the rotation, his one-year contract for $2 million plus incentives will be a bargain. --

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