其實也不是我談啦 歷史沉澱的智慧，我們不要浪費青春再發現一次。 所謂第二次工業革命，對德國來說，鐵路是先鋒， 也是發動機。 1977年 The Journal of Economic History有篇論文 分析比較了鐵路在德國工業革命的特殊地位 Railroads and German Economic Growth: A Leading Sector Analysis with a comparison to the United States and Great Britain The Journal of Economic History volume XXXVII Sep 1977 Number 3 Rainer Fremdling , University of Munster and University of Pennsylvania 我摘抄他的結論： Most importantly, relevant to ecomomic growth theory, the Ger- man case study implies that a single innovation was "vital for eco- nomic growth during the nineteenth centure" thereby falsifying Fogel's conclusion as a theoretical generalization. He correctly claims that "a multiplicity of innovations that were applied to a broad spectrum of economic processes" was responsible for the industrialization. We must, of course, remember that the diverse structures among innovations responsible for industrialization in different countries or at different times allowed different oppor- tunities to substitute one innovation for another. Not all innovations had equal effects on economic growth. Railroads, however, were undoubtedly one of the most influential during the nineteenth century. According to Fishlow, the innovation of the railroads was important in the United States, and this is even more true of Germany, where the industrial revolution cannot be explained without it. The influence of railroad construction on the British growth process must be reinterpreted since recent econometric research has neglected the effects of foreign railroad construction, from which Great Britain must have profited a great deal. Further comparative studies on other countries and a quantification of the international transfer effects created by the railroad will demonstrate that neither contemporaries nor generations of economic historians went astray by emphasizing the extraordinary importance of the innovation of the railroad for economic growth during the nineteenth century. 前面我說話口氣不好。 先道歉了。 -- 打死老虎乃真英雄 --

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