http://www.wretch.cc/blog/oolong1001&article_id=1808078 Author Curtis Faith I have always believed that the indices trade very differently from the other futures markets. As a Turtle, we were given a choice as to whether or not we would trade the S&P 500 index. I made the decision not to trade the S&P 500 market using the Turtle rules, while many other Turtles did trade them. My theory of the underlying reasons has two parts: Indices are not normal speculative instruments in the sense that their price movement does not come primarily as a result of the trading in the instrument or it's underlying index. The price movement of an index is an accumulation of the price movements in the components stocks. Since the price action of the S&P 500 is an averaging of many other individual markets, it won't behave the same as a market whose price action is determined solely by that market. The price movements of the strong stocks that cause a rise in the index are diluted by the weak stocks that are down during this rise, and vice versa. This causes a dampening effect on trends. The indices more purely demonstrate price movements resulting from investor psychology than underlying fundamentals. Individual stocks may rise for certain reasons, but the "market", being an almost wholly psychological concept, rises because of human sentiment based much more purely on feelings rather than logic. While this is certainly true of all markets, it is more true of the indices than other individual markets. From a trend-following perspective, the best trends are not those that move the most, but those that move the smoothest. It is the choppiness of the trends, and the number of false movements that determine the profitability of a market. It is my belief that smooth trends come when less individual traders, less weak hands, less amateurs (and I consider even most professionals who buy and sell stocks to be amateurs when it comes to trading) participate in the buying or selling that causes trends, the trend will be smoother. Amateurs tend to amplify the magnitude of the corrections, sometimes to the point where the trends don't compensate for the non-trending market losses. The indices are a different beast, and I treat them that way. I never include stock indices in portfolios with other markets to be traded the same way as the other markets. There are ways to make money with the indices, however, these tend to be shorter-term approaches with average trades of several days rather than several weeks or months. == 問：股市是否有別於其他市場? 艾迪．塞柯塔：股市不但有別於其他市場，而且其本身也難以捉摸。這句話聽起來似乎難 以理解，然而要瞭解市場根本就是件徒勞無益的事。我認為要瞭解股市就像要瞭解音樂一 樣沒有道理，有許多人寧願瞭解市場而不去瞭解賺錢的機會。 問：你說“股市難以捉摸”是什麼意思? 艾迪。塞柯塔：股市難以捉摸是因為股市的行為模式很少會重複。 == 問﹕請問股市是否例外?我是說，股市的特性是否與其他市場 不同? 理察‧丹尼斯﹕我認為股市比較特殊。 問﹕為什麼? 理察‧丹尼斯﹕根據我的觀察，股市中各類股票價格波動的隨機性要比一般商品市場高， 這也就是說，商品市場行情的波動比較具有趨勢存在，然而股市行情波動就很難找出脈 絡。 問﹕請你解釋造成這種現象的原因? 理察‧丹尼斯﹕我認為股市中股票的種類太多，個股的基本面資訊也過份分散，不足以匯 聚成整個股市行情的大趨勢，商品市場則恰好相反。 問﹕在商品市場中，技術面的資訊基本上只包括價格、成交量與未平倉量等，然而股市的 技術面資訊遠多於商品市場，例如還包括了各類分析指標。一般趨勢識別系統所能分析的 資訊不多，是否就是無法運用 於股市的原因? 理察‧丹尼斯﹕我不認為如此。我的看法是，一般趨勢識別系統之所以不適用於股市，是 因為股價指數與各股行情之間的隨機性太強，而一般的趨勢識別系統根本無法消化個股股 價變化的訊息。 == 布魯斯．貝考克 評論股價指數 長期趨勢追蹤系統在這類的市場的表現並不太好,雖然其高波動提供了快速獲利的潛力.正 由於這個理由,它們是最好的當日沖消標的.波動包絡系統似乎最能善用其市場行為.除了 經濟面的衝擊,當日成交的情況良好(意思是停損單的滑移價差可能只有一個或兩個跳動 點)假如你在開盤或收盤行動,成交的情況可能更糟.通常在開盤會有大的缺口產生,導致 比預期更高的損失,進而摧毀你的資金管理策略. S&P500股價指數是最受歡迎的股價指數市場.自從1987年大崩盤之後,保證金已由6000美 元提高到現在的19000美元.增幅原本被認為可以減少過度的投機,預防政府制定嚴格的法 規,甚至完全關閉股價指數期貨市場.期貨交易並非崩盤的主因.用法規釘死期貨並不能防 止另一次的崩盤.它只會使增加市場流通性的小額散戶無法介入. -- 波段單王道：多頭做多、空頭做空、盤整少做、賺錢加碼、賠錢停損 小弟在永豐金證券，來開戶就不定期提供個人觀察潛力股名單 以及操作建議，股票期權手續費都有優惠唷，意者請mail ^^ http://blog.pixnet.net/stasis --

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