http://goo.gl/CNnRMZ 這篇蠻讚的，貼給大家看看，順便求翻譯君XD More on why Andre Roberson starts for the Thunder by Berry Tramel Published: October 26, 2015 I came into this season believing the Thunder ought to try Dion Waiters in the starting lineup. He gives the Thunder so much more offense than does Andre Roberson, and Waiters’ defense was surprisingly decent last season after he arrived from Cleveland via trade. But Monday, when I wrote about Roberson in the starting lineup, a column that you can read here ( http://goo.gl/OCjQmJ ) , you’ll notice I didn’t stick with that conviction. Here’s why. I don’t try to reach conclusions, then find facts to support my theory. I try to find facts first, then establish a conclusion. And the Thunder seems to be saying, you want someone besides Roberson to start? Fine. Just bring us some evidence. Show us some data. Because virtually all the data supports Roberson not only starting, but combining with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams to form the Thunder’s best lineup, period. * The Thunder’s metrics with the Durant / Westbrook / Ibaka / Adams / Roberson lineup — 109.8 points per 100 possessions, 96.4 allowed — is 2.5 points better than the NBA team leader in offense last season and 2.5 points better than the team leader in defense last season. Now, the best lineup of a good team — which the Thunder was when it had Durant and Westbrook — should net better than even the best team averages. But those are big number advantages. * It’s a limited sample size, because of injuries, but Waiters played 44 minutes last season over eight games with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Adams on the court. During those 44 minutes, the Thunder averaged 97.9 points per 100 possessions and allowed 109.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s a minus-11.8. That’s a difference of 25 points a game. An NBA blowout. Again, small sample size. But Waiters appears to play much better with the Thunder’s secondary players. * If Roberson is such a great fit with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Adams, why doesn’t he finish the game with them? That’s an excellent question, and any answers I give would be speculative. Roberson does play late in situational possessions, but rarely outside that. But the Thunder is NOT particularly unique in playing its starting lineup for small percentages of the game. Last season, that fivesome was limited to 23 games and played 249 minutes. That’s 10.8 minutes per game together. According to nyloncalculus.com, the NBA average for starters playing together is just 14 minutes a night. The Clippers, a notoriously shallow team, led the league with its starters playing together almost 20 minutes a game. The Spurs, an annual deep team, played their starters together just over 10 minutes a game. * It’s possible that the Thunder believes Roberson is particularly well-suited to play with Durant and Westbrook. In other words, Roberson playing with Kyle Singler in the starting lineup would NOT be a good idea. The Thunder needs more scoring than that. But with Durant and Westbrook, it works. Durant and Westbrook are unconventional players. Does that an unconventional lineup best suits them? That seems to be the Thunder’s theory. Because of injuries, the Westbrook/Adams/Ibaka/Roberson quartet never played a minute with Singler on the floor. But that quartet — the starters minus Durant — played six games with Dion Waiters, averaging 5.5 minutes, and eight games with Anthony Morrow, averaging 3.6 minutes. * Roberson led the NBA in average number of starters on the floor during his minutes; 4.09. Only six players averaged 4.0 or better. Think about that. That means the Thunder absolutely believes that Roberson’s particular skill set works great with Durant and Westbrook, much less so with the Thunder’s mere Earthlings. Also realize what that means for Roberson. His traditional rotation is to start the first and third quarters, play a good chunk of each period, then barely play otherwise. That means he’s always on the floor against the other team’s best players, too. In fact, Roberson also led the NBA last season in percentage of minutes played vs. starters: 74.8. Here are the top five: Roy Hibbert 74.2, Omer Asik 73.0, Tim Duncan 73.0, Andrew Bogut 72.9. Interesting top five. Four defensive specialists, plus Tim Duncan. Of course, Hibbert is a better offensive player than is Roberson, at least before the NBA’s witness protection program. Duncan is Duncan. But Bogut and Asik are interior versions of Roberson. Not really involved in their team’s offensive production. Absolute subservient roles, just waiting for possession to change so they can exert their strengths. And while I don’t know about the Pelicans all that much, the Warriors used Bogut much like the Thunder uses Roberson. Start the halves, sit down after 7-10 minutes, then maybe don’t come back. * I asked Roberson what Billy Donovan has told him about being in the lineup and what Roberson needs to do to stay there. Here’s what he said: “Continue to do what I do best. Defend, rebound, bring the energy. Go out there, get steals, help the team out any way I can. Be the junkyard dog out there on the floor and continue to fight, give it my all any way I can.” * I asked Donovan about playing Roberson and Adams together, whether that lineup creates too little offense, even with Westbrook and Durant on the court. Of Adams, Donovan said, “There’s a little more to him offensively. That’s the biggest thing for me as a coach. You could be running an action for Kevin, the play’s directed towards Kevin, but are you putting Steven in that play, in an opportunity to be who he is as a player and take advantage of the things he can do. Steven’s been a good roller to the basket. He’s been a guy they’ve been able to drop the ball off to and he can finish. He’ s been a good offensive rebounder. I think he’s actually passed the ball very very well. There’s no question he’s more of a defensive guy, but he’s also a really good passer. He’s more of an unconventional offensive center, so to speak. You’re not throwing the ball to him on the block and guys are cutting off him and he’s palming it and backing his way in like Shaq. He’s not that kind of player, but he is good at catching the ball at the elbow and driving it from there, makes a little floater, he can get the ball to the other side of the floor, get the ball on some rolls, running the floor, some seals. To your point, Enes (Kanter) is more of a legitimate, just-get-the-ball-to-him-on-a-spot. He’s good enough offensively he can manufacture a shot. I think if Steven could not provide any offense at all, I think you could be right, where it is too much defense, and so much is on Kevin and Russell’s shoulders, but I do think we can get enough out of those other guys.” As an aside, I love Scotty Brooks like a brother-in-law, but I rarely got in-depth answers like that. Billy你可以不要那麼專業嗎?XD * For the record, the Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka/Roberson/Kendrick Perkins lineup played 57 minutes together last season over 12 games (4.8 per game) and was exquisite also, averaging a plus-20 rating in points per 100 possessions. Basically, 117.8-97.9. In 2013-14, Roberson’s rookie year when he spelled Thabo Sefolosha on occasion, the Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka/Roberson/Perk lineup played just 68 minutes together, over six games. But the results still were superb: 13.7 net rating; 111.7 points scored per 100 possessions, 98.0 points allowed per possession. So the data shows that Roberson works great with the lineup whether it was Perkins or Adams in the lineup. If it’s Adams, and his increased offense over Perk, all the better. * I guess this would be a good time to explain points per 100 possessions. NBA nerds — of which I would say I’m a novice — know this stuff by heart. But if you’re just getting into advanced metrics and NBA stats, points per 100 possessions really is a measurement of points per possession. If a team scores 94 points in a fast-paced, uptempo game, that’s not nearly as impressive as scoring 94 points in a slowdown game. Points per possession is a much more valuable statistical tool than points per game. And points per 100 possessions is just points per possession, multiplied by 100 to give you a better sense of a typical NBA score. Most NBA games have slightly under 100 possessions, but it’s close enough to make you understand. For instance, 1.17 points per possession means exactly what? Not much without other references. But 117 points per 100 possessions means some pretty good offense, if you equate it to a game. * Will Billy Donovan ride Roberson throughout the playoffs? We’ll see. Scotty Brooks eventually bailed, in the postseason, on his beloved lineup. It took him awhile to sit Perkins. Took him awhile to sit Thabo in those series against Memphis and San Antonio, though he brought Sefolosha back in between, for the Clippers. I assume Donovan would have a quicker trigger. But if Roberson needs to be benched during the playoffs because of matchups or some kind of series familiarity, it wouldn’t be an indictment of Roberson starting. It would be an admission that the playoffs are different. All kinds of teams tinker with their rotations in the postseason. The Warriors played Draymond Green at center last spring, benching Bogut. The Cavaliers benched Timofey Mozgov, and he was playing well. The Spurs brought Matt Bonner out of mothballs in the 2014 West finals. What you see now is not necessarily what you’ll see in the playoffs. * I don’t know if this has anything to do with it or not, but the Thunder players seem to love Roberson. Think about it. Here’s a guy that can’t shoot but has turned himself into an NBA player. Unselfish, hard-working, great teammate by all accounts, never complains. In a lineup with Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, a lineup where you’re not going to get many shots and if you do there’s going to be a problem, a personality like Roberson is a blessing. And the numbers back him up. Andre Roberson is an easy person to play. --

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