Claw School: Kawhi Leonard's Defensive Master Class 來源：http://goo.gl/oBs9HO It’s hard to pick out the best single defensive play of the entire 2013-14 NBA season, but Kawhi Leonard’s block of Russell Westbrook in overtime of Game 6 of the Western Conference finals deserves serious consideration. That tense bit of #freebasketball is mostly remembered for Tim Duncan’s turn-back-the-clock domination, but Leonard’s moment of defensive genius was probably the game’s biggest individual inflection point. 要在整個2013-14球季中選出最佳個人防守球員實在不容易，但Kawhi Leonard在西 區決賽G6加時階段對西河的火鍋絕對足以讓他被列入審慎考量。而這個火鍋可能也 算得上這場比賽最重要的轉捩點。 Down one point with less than a minute left, the Thunder’s 3-on-2 fast-break chance represented a huge opportunity to take a late-game lead. As Reggie Jackson raced down the floor, he was flanked by Kevin Durant on his right and Westbrook on his left. The only Spurs defenders ahead of them were Leonard and Boris Diaw. Leonard confronted Jackson near the top of the arc, forcing him to dish the ball to a surging Westbrook — but Leonard wasn’t done yet. Leonard changed the game with his giant left hand — like taking candy from an all-world point guard. It was simultaneously unbelievable, understated, and vital. If it’s true that the league’s biggest superstars make the biggest plays in the biggest moments, then it’s also true that Kawhi Leonard became a superstar in the 2014 NBA playoffs — just a different kind of superstar, making different kinds of superstar plays. 在雷霆落後一分，比賽時間剩不到一分鐘時，Reggie Jackson發動一次三打二快攻 右邊跟著KD、左邊跟著西河，而馬刺退防的球員只有Kawhi和Diaw，眼看這將是一 次讓雷霆在決勝階段逆轉的大好機會。這時Kawhi在弧頂先迫使Reggie把分球給西河 ，而這時候Kawhi用他巨大的左手改變了這場比賽。 在那一瞬間Kawhi把球從西河手中搶了過來。要是我們藉由在關鍵時刻做出偉大的攻防來 定義聯盟最偉大的球星，那麼在2014季後賽Kawhi絕對通過了偉大球星的認證，只是用不 同的方式成為了不同的偉大球星。 Leonard is now 23 years old and the reigning Finals MVP, yet when it comes to his basketball celebrity, he seems to take a backseat to other emerging young talents, like Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry. Part of this is by choice; he doesn’t really draw attention to himself. You’ll never catch Leonard in an ad pretending he’s an elderly playground legend, or wearing a fake mustache and houndstooth, impersonating an elite insurance salesman — though, to be fair, if you’re watching TV in Texas, you can catch him in a toga with his teammates in a local supermarket spot. He missed the league’s glitzy fashion show during All-Star Weekend. His brand has only one lonesome vertical: being really good at basketball. By nature, by choice, and by association, the Kawhi Leonard experience is antithetical to the league’s contemporary star-making apparatus — kind of like one of his iconic teammates. And in 2015, even the nerdiest basketball observers still fail to to adequately assess the very thing Leonard is really good at: defense. This chasm between what we see and what we understand about hoops was on full display last Sunday night in San Antonio, as the Spurs crushed the Minnesota Timberwolves, 123-97. Leonard finished the game with 15 points, six rebounds, and one assist. That’s certainly not a bad stat line, but it seems incongruent with the following postgame quote from Flip Saunders, who coached against Leonard that night: "Kawhi Leonard just took the game totally over... just mauled." Usually, when an opposing head coach explicitly says somebody “took the game totally over” or “mauled” his guys, that means that person scored 40, or grabbed 20 boards, or dished out 15 assists, but this was not the case with Leonard. He took the game over by playing spectacular on-ball defense. Leonard has a habit of turning great players into average ones. That night, he shut down future rookie of the year Andrew Wiggins, stealing the ball five times, and disrupted several Wolves possessions by doing stuff like this: 在2015年，即使是最專注於籃球數據研究的單位仍未能發明適妥的數據來衡量Kawhi在場 上最擅長的事：防守。 上周日馬刺以123-97擊敗了灰狼之後，賽後訪問灰狼隊的總教練Flip Saunders說Kawhi完 全掌控了比賽且痛擊了灰狼隊。一般來說，會讓對手的教練明確說出「掌控比賽」及 「痛擊」這些字眼，就表示對手有個人得了40分，或是抓了20個籃板，或是傳了15次助攻 ，但這些Kawhi一個都沒有做到。實際上，Kawhi藉由驚人的對球防守掌控了比賽。 那個晚上，Kawhi守死了可能是今年最佳新秀的Wiggins，抄了五個球，干擾了好幾次灰狼 的團隊進攻。這就是Kawhi的「習慣」：把對手偉大的球員守成普通球員。 [video] Leonard played only 25 minutes that night, but while he was on the floor, the Spurs outscored the Wolves by 24 points. Wiggins logged a minus-32. Kawhi只打了25分鐘，但當他在場上馬刺對比灰狼多得了24分，同時也讓對位的Wiggins 吞下-32的正負值 In the last 20 years, only two forwards have led the NBA in steals per game: Scottie Pippen and Gerald Wallace. As of today, Leonard is on pace to become the third. He currently leads the league in steals per game, with 2.3. That may not seem like a lot, but steals are extremely valuable events, and that value is often undersold by the little integers that show up in the box score the next day. 在過去20年，聯盟抄捷榜第一名只有兩名前鋒排得上： Scottie Pippen和Gernald Wallace 現在Kawhi佔據抄捷榜第一名，每場可貢獻2.3個抄截。這數字可能看起來不多，但抄截確 實是個非常有價值但常被低估的數據。 For over a decade now, the savviest basketball analysts have been talking about points per possession. But not all possessions are created equal. As it turns out, the nature of how a possession begins has a huge impact on its eventual fate. Leaguewide, possessions that originate with “live ball turnovers” — like steals — are generally the most effective possessions in the game. And the value of a steal does not end with the turnover, as steals also typically yield extremely valuable ensuing possessions going the other way. This isn’t exactly a new idea, but thanks to new kinds of performance data, we now have numbers to back it up. 這十年來，籃球分析納入了更精確的points per possession。而如何開始球權將徹底影 響一波球權的結果。其中以活球失誤，例如被對手抄截，而開啟的球權是最有效率的進 攻球權。這並非一個新的概念，只是多虧這些新的資料，現在我們可以用數據來為這種 貢獻背書。 As of today, the Clippers and the Warriors have the most efficient offenses in the league. Both teams average 109.3 points per 100 possessions, just about four points better than the league average of 104. But even those incredible offenses can’t hold a candle to the efficiency of an average team following an average live ball turnover. Overall this season, NBA offenses scored a whopping 124 points per 100 possessions1 following a live ball turnover. In other words, even the most mediocre NBA teams suddenly morph into dominant offensive forces immediately after the kinds of live ball turnovers that Leonard is really good at creating. 以現在進攻PPP最佳的兩個球隊為例：快艇和勇士，它們每100個球權可以獲得109.3分。 然而透過活球失誤，每100個球權可以產生124分。換句話說，即使是聯盟最會進攻的球隊 ，進攻效率也不及抄球反擊，而這正是Kawhi最擅長的事。 So it’s not enough to say that steals turn defense into offense. They often turn defense into the best kind of offense. Here is Leonard demonstrating the basketball version of a pick-six: 因此，僅用「轉守為攻」並不足以形容抄截的價值；抄截不但能轉守為攻，還能從防守轉 為最有效率的進攻 [video] Here’s another example, from Friday night’s Spurs win over the Celtics, in which Leonard takes Evan Turner (a.k.a. “Evan Turnerover”) to Claw School: [video] Another thing to note here is that Leonard’s steals, unlike many of his peers ’, are hardly ever the result of defensive gambling. He’s not riskily jumping into passing lanes or leaving his assignment open. His takeaways are usually a product of him playing terrific defense. That’s why steals, as a metric, offer an incomplete picture of defensive skill. They can be reflections of which players gamble the most as much as symbols of who plays the most consistently great defense. 更值得一提的是，聯盟很多抄截多的球員透過賭博式防守來取得抄截，但Kawhi跟 他們不一樣。Kawhi不會隨便斷球線或是讓他防守的球員出現空檔，他的抄截常是來自他 自己優異的防守。這個差異也是為什麼不能單以抄截來判斷防守技巧。 As I wrote about a few weeks ago, the league’s player tracking system is finally enabling us to understand defensive performances, revealing which players are really good at suppressing and disrupting opponents’ shots. It turns out Leonard is one of the best, not just at stealing the ball, but also at reducing the scoring prowess of his assignments. Below is Leonard’s defensive shot chart from last season, which reveals that he is really good at preventing 3-point shots from even happening. Those tiny dots all around the 3-point arc suggest that when Leonard is the assigned defender, players hardly ever even attempt 3s. The blueness of those dots reveals that when they do end up shooting, they exhibit significant decreases in efficiency. [graph] 從球員追蹤系統可以發現，Kawhi的防守不僅只於抄截，他還能降低對手進攻的水平。從 進攻者的投籃分布區域圖來看，我們可以發現Kawhi對於三分線外投射的防守非常驚人， 被對位到的球員幾乎很少能在三分線出手 Kawhi Leonard is Daryl Morey’s nightmare. Leonard’s defensive assignments — guys like Durant, LeBron James, and James Harden — regularly fail to live up to expectations on the perimeter. Nobody looks forward to a night trying to play offense against Leonard. 以此統計來看，Kawhi完全就是火箭隊GM Morey的夢魘。Kawhi防守的對象：KD,James,鬍 子，經常很難在他們期望的有效射程內出手。沒有一個人會想要在某個晚上打比賽時面對 Kawhi的防守。 Before taking the stage to accept the Finals MVP trophy last June, Leonard had spent 11 consecutive games defending LeBron James and Kevin Durant. It would be an exaggeration to say he shut either guy down, but it would not be an exaggeration to say that his defensive performances had a lot to do with the Spurs going 8-3 in those series. 在Kawhi獲得FMVP前，連續11場球對位防守James和KD。若要說Kawhi守死了他們是有點誇 張了，但說Kawhi的超強防守幫馬刺贏了11場比賽中的8場絕不誇張。 Leonard’s defense makes you want to come up with a more elegant stat for defense — something like an Almost Steal. Check out how Leonard greatly damages a Heat possession by knocking the ball away from James, but doesn’t get the steal in the end. 有時Kawhi差點抄到球但卻影響了對手的進攻球權，如下面影片對位LBJ， 這在數據上是沒辦法顯示的，看了Kawhi在防守上的表現，會令人想要發明一個更精準 的指標來評斷防守能力。 [video] Maybe he’s not a conventional superstar, but Leonard is one of the most important players in the whole league. Since his return from injury in mid-January, the Spurs have gradually regained their dominant form (that Knicks loss aside). They’ve won 10 of their last 12 games and suddenly look like a real threat to defend their championship. With Leonard on the floor this year, the Spurs are 35-16 (that would be the fourth-best winning percentage in the league), but they are only 9-9 without him. In March 2015, just three and a half years after his NBA debut, Leonard might be the most important player on a team that features three surefire Hall of Famers. ♦♦♦ Yesterday afternoon in Atlanta, Leonard played a phenomenal game, making plays like this, and leading his team to a statement win against the best team in the Eastern Conference: [video] Two weeks ago, in that same arena, the Hawks honored Dominique Wilkins with a brand-new statue and a ceremony that included a video tribute, featuring Wilkins’s old rival Larry Bird. Bird used the opportunity to dust off his Hall of Fame trash talk, joking about the statue, “I’m pretty sure it’s not made in a defensive stance.” It was a subtly profound jab. It’s not hard to find a basketball coach to remind you that defense is half the game, but it’s virtually impossible to find a statue of a basketball star in a defensive stance. If the Spurs ever make a Kawhi Leonard statue outside of the AT&T Center, that may change. While there’s no shortage of emergent superstars trying to be like Mike, Leonard seems more like Pippen. And while Leonard will probably always remain underappreciated by the folks on Madison Avenue, it’s clear he’s valued by the people who know the most about the game. Kawhi可能不像傳統的超級巨星，但他絕對是聯盟最有影響力的球員之一。比起Jordan， 他會更像Pippen一點；Kawhi可能總是被人們所低估，但最了解比賽的人就會體認到他的 價值所在。 心得：第一次翻譯若有疏漏敬請見諒，期待可愛能繼續進步!

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ※ 轉錄者: Tradesque (31.205.84.160), 03/24/2015 06:09:28 ※ 編輯: Tradesque (31.205.84.160), 03/24/2015 06:10:09