雖然這篇很長，可是建議關心我們農場的人一定要看一下。 翻譯的話要看看有沒有勇者肯做了 orz Q: Chris B from SLC, UT asks: Welcome John. The lunatic fringe from McCovey Chronicles is excited to chat. What's going on with Pablo Sandoval? Has he lost any weight? A: John Manuel: Welcome everybody and thanks for the questions. I'll dive right in with a question on Sandoval, who didn't miss the top 10 by much. He's potentially the best hitter in the organization, smooth hitting mechanics, line-drive swing from both sides. I haven't weighed Pablo lately, and I know I'm sensitive about my weight, and I think the Giants are a little sensitive about his weight too. We aren't selling jeans here anyway, right? Sandoval just has to work to stay in as good a shape as he can, and he needs to get stronger. Sandoval doing what he did this year as a catcher would have made the top 10. Now he's a 3B, and power is at more of a premium at 3B than it is at C. That's what kept him off the top 10. Q: Dave from Decatur, GA. asks: At the tender age of 20, Matt Cain threw just over 190 innings last season. As a Giant fan, should I be a little concerned or does Matt have ideal mechanics? A: John Manuel: A lot of people said Mark Prior had ideal mechanics--I think I was one of them--and he still got hurt. Pitchers get hurt. I'm not sure that there is a magic threshold anyone has found for this stuff. Cain's mechanics are fairly clean, he's got a durable body, and yeah, it might make me feel a little better if he had worked a little bit less. That said, I wouldn't be overly concerned. Q: Gaston from San Francisco asks: I've got a few questions regarding Craig Whitaker. Does he have a Matt Cain type ceiling if he stays a starter? Is a move to the pen unavoidable, and if he moves there for good, does he have the makeup of a closer? A: John Manuel: No, he doesn't have Cain's ceiling, which I think I wrote last year. Cain's more cerebral, better intangibles . . . it's the difference between being a No. 1 guy who has stuff and makeup and that "it" factor, and a guy with No. 1 caliber stuff but more realistically a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, because he can't quite put it all together. Whitaker reminds me, best-case scenario, of Nats righty John Patterson, who took a while to get it all together but is a similar lanky, hard-throwing Texan. I do see Whitaker as a reliever eventually, but the Giants haven't given up on him as a starter. Q: Dave from Decatur, GA. asks: What's your take on Eliezer Alfonzo? We know about his power prowess, but does he have the defense to make it as a major-league backup, or will his age work against him? A: John Manuel: Alfonzo was a tough call for the top 30. His power certainly seems legitimate; he's always had raw power, it was a matter of making consistent enough contact to bring it out. His defense is backup-catcher caliber; he can be run on because he's not a great receiver, footwork is iffy, etc. He's kind of the opposite of Mike Matheny. I do think that could make him a useful reserve in '06, and that's why he's on the 40-man roster. (Well, not because I think so, more because Brian Sabean & Co. think so.) Q: Justin Allen from Walnut Creek, CA asks: Thanks for chatting John. Brian Wilson has progressed quite a bit over the last few years. Where does he rank on the Giants list and has he had any recurring arm issues? A: John Manuel: You're welcome. Wilson just missed the top 10, and was a good story to follow because he really just stunk in 2004. He was No. 30 on the Giants list in 2003, after he signed and before he had pitched, because of the potential he had shown at LSU. He was by his own admission not prepared for pro ball in 2004, but he learned his lessons and just had a great 2005 season. He's got a shot to pitch in San Francisco in '06. To my knowledge, he has not had recurring elbow problems. Q: Dave from Decatur, GA. asks: What's the deal with Jon Coutlangus? The Giants sure do love those low-mileage arms. Just how live is his stuff? Does this 25 year-old lefty conversion project have a major league future, or is his window closing before it really opened? A: John Manuel: His stuff is live, and as I wrote in this chat last year, ages for players are relative. He is a fresh arm, he is new to pitching, and he has projection left even though he's older. He's got low-90s stuff, but more than that, as he tired during his first long season as a pitcher, he still could get hitters out with mid-80s velo, a pretty good slider and good control. He definitely has lefty specialist written all over it. Q: Dave from Decatur, GA. asks: Alfredo Simon and Merkin Valdez: future major league starters or relievers? A: John Manuel: Simon's going to relieve if he makes it; his prospect status took a pretty good hit for me in 2005. Merkin remains a candidate to start, and D*ck Tidrow made it very clear to me that the organization views Valdez as a starter, otherwise he would have joined the relief merry-go-round in '05 in San Francisco. Perhaps that would change in a different organization, but Valdez showed a little more feel for his offspeed stuff, particularly his change, this year and the Giants want h im to start. Q: Brian from San Fran, CA asks: Do you think the Giants would really trade Cain for Jennings if the Rockies would ever trade him, as rumored numerous times?? A: John Manuel: No inside info here, and I love the Diesel, but that would be a mistake for the Giants. Q: dclawed from The Beautiful South asks: How serious are the Giants about moving Eddy Martinez-Esteve (EME) to first base? If he's starting at AA next season, wouldn't such a move seem to block the superior-fielding Travis Ishikawa? A: John Manuel: They have to be serious about it, because Martinez-Esteve isn't a good left fielder, and they need to get his bat somewhere. He ranks higher than Ishikawa on my list because he's a better bet to hit, and the Giants haven't gotten above-average offense at first base since Will Clark, it seems. They have the DH in the Eastern League when NL affiliates play AL affiliates, so both could play, and EME also could play some LF when he's not at first. I don't think it's a problem. I also wouldn't be shocked if Martinez-Esteve got moved up to Fresno; he's probably ready to handle that offensively. He's a very polished hitter. For me, this system has significant separation between the No. 1 prospect, Nos. 2 and 3, and the rest. For me, EME is a significantly better prospect than Ishikawa, but someone has to go No. 4. Q: Gaston from San Francisco asks: How likely is it that Marcus Sanders will stay in the infield? He seems to have an iron glove but top flight speed, would a move to center be good for him? A: John Manuel: I think it's very likely and he's not an iron glove; he's got soft hands. His errors came on throws. Put him in CF and he's possibly Juan Pierre, but he has natural infield actions and can be a good defender at 2B if his throwing arm can ever come back. He's never going to have the arm he had in high school when he was 90-91 off the mound, but Sanders needs to have a fringe average arm--which he showed in the first half of 2005--to be a big league 2B, so he can make the throws on the DP. We'll find out in spring training and in 2006 how much his arm has left in it. Q: Dave from Decatur, GA. asks: What happened to Pablo Sandoval and Waldis Joaquin? I expected them to land in the top ten. Is it too soon for them? A: John Manuel: I thought it was a bit soon for both. I mentioned Sandoval earlier; if he's still a C, he's in the top 10. Joaquin is in the 11-20 mix, and I like him a lot, very intriguing power arm. It sounds like he doesn't know what "offspeed" means yet, perhaps it's the language barrier. Shairon Martis also has a power arm and seems to have a bit more feel for pitching off that AZL team. That's two intriguing arms to come out of the international arena for the Giants. Q: dclawed from The Beautiful South asks: How close did some of last year's draft picks (Griffin, Copeland) come to making the top ten? What's your projection for each player? A: John Manuel: Both were in the mix. Copeland is an interesting player with some real ceiling, but wow, I was surprised the Giants took an outfielder with their first pick. I understand you want to take the best player available . . . I still thought that with all their OFs, that was the last thing they would draft. That said, Copeland is pretty sound tools-wise and needs a little more experience, he's a little raw for a Division I college player. Same with Griffin, much more typical of what I thought the Giants would do in the draft. He's the kind of pitcher who could zoom through a system if it all comes together, and it could all come together in 2006, or 2007, or 2008 . . . just hard to know with a raw, tall, projectable arm. I actually ranked Griffin ahead of Copeland, it just seems like he has significant upside. Q: John Wright from San Jose, CA asks: Kevin Frandsen was a surprise to many, even you!! But do we see a possible top of the line starter with him in San Francisco for years to come? According to you in your weaknesses he cannot get better because he gets everything out of what he has already? Can you get a little more in depth on him please? A: John Manuel: He was a pleasant surprise to everyone but himself and San Jose State fans. I'll admit I blew his ranking (or lack thereof) last year. His weakness compared to other prospects is, there's no projection left. He is what he is. That's plenty enough to be a solid average major leaguer. It just also means this guy doesn't have the tools, the raw physical ability, to be a star, to be an all-star consistently, etc. That's not the worst knock to have. Kevin Frandsen looks like he's going to be a solid average big leaguer, and that's pretty awesome, especially for a 12th-round pick. Q: Orlando Buckham from San Fransico asks: Thans for taking my question. What are some of the up and coming left handed arms in the system? A: John Manuel: Coutlangus and Jesus Reina were added to the 40-man roster even though neither has seen Double-A. Jonathan Sanchez clearly is, in my opinion, the most explosive LHP in the system and has the best chance of being an impact big leaguer, that's why I ran him up the list as high as I did. Others include Ben Nieto, kind of the Giants' version of Dana Eveland, though he doesn't throw as hard as Eveland; and Josue Gomez, a raw arm from the Dominican who pitched in the Arizona League. He needs to throw more strikes but has a live arm. Q: Rob from Hamilton, Ontario asks: What happened to Dan Ortmeier? He had one of his best seasons and even made a September call-up. Is he going to be a ML starter and what is his timetable? A: John Manuel: Toughest guy to leave off the top 10; I ranked him fourth in the organization two years ago, he had the injuries, then he really performed this year. I think he can be a major league starter; I just think Nate Schierholtz, Ishikawa, etc., have more of a chance to make an impact in the major leagues. I don't think Ortmeier is a 20-20 big league guy. I can keep nitpicking . . . he repeated the league; his arm hasn't come back, so he's probably just average in RF, while Schierholtz has a real plus arm. But the main thing, there's only 10 players in a top 10, and he was a guy that when I started the process, he was in the 10, and then he got edged out. His September callup actually hurt him; he didn't look ready and looked a little overmatched. Q: Thom Gentz from Ann Arbor, MI asks: I know he's no a Giant anymore, but since he was mentioned so much, where would jesse foppert rank if he were eligible and still with the club? You seemed to imply that he has the stuff but not the makeuptoughness to be a top starter. Did this surface in his TJ rehab? I haven't heard about it before and am very interested. Obviously Cain is the better prospect now, but how does Foppert still project? A: John Manuel: I'm not implying any softness or lack of toughness in Foppert. I'm saying Cain has toughness, makeup, a cerebral approach, all of that, out the ying yang. I haven't talked to anyone who saw Foppert since August, when he started against Cain, and I don't have those notes in front of me, so I don't feel good projecting Foppert. But Cain's the better prospect now, and the Giants think Cain at his peak is better than Fopper at his peak, when we rated him as the best pitcher in the minors back in 2002. Q: Prospect Hound from Reno NV asks: Good morningafternoon John. How well did the list come together for you this year? The general impression within the SF prospect watching community was that after Cain, you could put the next 20 guys in a hat, pull them out at random, and defend the resulting list. A: John Manuel: That's fairly accurate. Brian Wilson, Dan Ortmeier, Pablo Sandoval . . . those could be top 10 guys, no doubt, they could be better than the guys I put in the top 10. Q: Chris Irwin from San Carlos, California asks: Ariel Nunez? He had a great AZL campaign and not overly old, but he was left off BA's AZL top 15. I'm curious as to why. Also, what can you tell us his AZL teammate Buster Lussier? Thanks A: John Manuel: He'll be on your Giants depth chart. Nunez is a little undisciplined, he doesn't 'get cheated on his swing, but the guy has physical ability and looks like he has a chance to hit for some power. Lussier's an athletic kid from the Northeast with solid average stuff and a good curveball; he looks like he could be an innings eater. Q: Daniel R. from Redwood City CA asks: What do you think the future holds for Brian Burres and Jeremy Accardo in the Giants or any other system? A: John Manuel: Burrres has to hone his breaking ball to better attack lefthanded hitters; he's also just got to try to get stronger and more durable, because he just wears down as games and seasons go on. I think for that reason he's a bullpen guy. I'm a big Accardo fan and see him as a quality middle reliever with his fastball-slider combo. He's also shown the savvy to get guys out when he doesn't have his best stuff. Athletic pitchers with power arms are prospects; that's Accardo. He could be a top 10 guy and I wouldn't be embarrassed to rank him that way, but I put him a little lower. Q: John from Walnut Creek asks: What's the prospect status of Erick Threets right now? Do you ever see him being at least a decent lefty reliever. A: John Manuel: Who's to say? That guy's one of the most unique prospects I've come across. It seems like no one knows when or if it will come together for him, but I'm not holding my breath. Q: Dobbsie the Giants fan from San Francisco, CA asks: Thanks for the chat John, you're so cool we could keep a side of beef in you. What can you tell us about Ben Nieto? All I can find is that he's a LHP drafted out of Riverside CC in the 38th round, but he pitched very effectively at both Arizona and Salem Kaiser this year. What does he throw? A: John Manuel: Stu Scott subbing for Dobbsie today . . . Nieto has interesting stuff, solid curveball, solid changeup, some feel, and while he's not a power guy, he's not a soft-tosser either, he touched some 90s in the AZL this summer. Interesting lefty to keep an eye on, needs to shape up a bit, he's listed at 5-foot-11, 225. Easy for me to say from here, but that's the scouting report. Q: Not Tiffy the Titan from Not Oakland, Not CA asks: I was shocked and amazed at the picture of Matt Cain on the web site. He's a good looking kid, but what the heck is he wearing? Is that the Grizzlies uniform? Seriously? A: John Manuel: Ha! It is the Grizzlies gear. Is that a baseball team or a country club's logo? I agree, that's an unfortunate logo, but it's their money, and it is certainly different. Q: Chad Goldberg from Washington, DC asks: John- how well does the Giants current system prepare them for the future in the NL West, especially considering the strength of some of the other organizations (Dodgers, D-Backs) minor league systems? A: John Manuel: Chad, that's a great question. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers and Rockies, for that matter, have better farm systems than the Giants--deeper, more impact bats, more impact arms . . . and the Dodgers have a Cain comp in Chad Billingsley, which the Rockies and D-backs don't have. The Giants have a philosophy and some consistency of approach that set them apart from that trio, though. They know what they want to do, they have some money, they aren't afraid to trade for hitters and develop their own pitchers. But there's no doubt those three farm systems are better than what San Francisco has. By the same token, the Giants are ahead of the Padres system within the division. Q: Dobbsie the Giants fan from San Francisco, CA asks: The Giants signed a kid named Tom King from the Mesa Miners of the Golden Baseball League that I have been hearing a lot about. Apparently he's a big kid, a submarine thrower, and was all but unhittable in that I-League. What can you tell us about him? Is he the stuff of cheap press releases, or can he bring the heat? A: John Manuel: You know, that's the scouting report we have on him, Dobbsie, was a member of Miami's program briefly, and they have produced some fine submarine college guys, and Jay Tessmer was a prospect back in the day. Twenty scoreless innings is impressive, but you know, the Giants already have a really nice submariner or sidearmer in Joe Bateman, who keeps getting outs the last two years. I'm a Bateman fan; if King is as good as Bateman (or better), then the Giants have themselves a find. Q: Corbin Burnett from Express Station, NM asks: The Giants seem to be finding a ton of power arms in unlikely places. I count no fewer than 20 kids with real fastballs, all but Cain and Whittaker of which came from other places than top draft rounds. Are the Giants doing a particularly good job at finding and developing these kdis, or do most farms have a similar number of comparable kids? A: John Manuel: That is what I've been saying for however many years I've been ranking their system (long enough that I ranked 'Scoop' McDowell and Brett Caspar and other such Giants heroes). They are doing a particularly great job of finding power arms. Jonathan Sanchez was one of the most electric lefties in the minors in 2005, and the Giants got him in the 27th round. That's money scouting, and if they can keep him healthy and work out the rough edges, that will be money development. The organization certainly deserves credit for its ability to find pitchers and also to develop them. Q: Dave Cowen from Reno NV asks: Right when Giants fans were becoming frustrated to distraction at the Giants' lack of production from the Latin Academy, along come an entire crop of good looking kids. Between Martis, Joaquin, Sandoval and Shoop who has the best ceiling? Are there more kids like this in the pipeline? A: John Manuel: It was quite impressive a haul. Joaquin for me might have the highest ceiling, you're talking about a guy who's throwing 98 mph and has a high 80s slider to boot. He's just raw. Martis isn't far behind, we've discussed Sandoval who I really like but would like to see hit for more power, and then there's Shoop. He was a show defenisively, but there's a lot of projection that has to go into deciding what kind of hitter he will be. He's at the back of this for me. Nunez also has been mentioned out of the AZL, as has Josue Gomez. Q: Lefty O'Doul from Seal Stadium, San Francisco asks: I am surprised that the Giants don't really seem to have much of an Asian presence- considering the city's demographics, I would have thought it would be a no brainer. Is it just too hard to compete with the organized leagues in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Australia for prospects, or is it a lack of will? A: John Manuel: This question also seems to come up every year in the chat. I'm surprised the Giants haven't been active in bidding for Japanese big leaguers myself, just because most of them seem to be pretty good, Kaz Matsui being a notable exception. Korea and Taiwan, well, what have they produced in the way of big leaguers? I think that's the question the Giants are asking--is it worth the investment financially to scout the heck out of Korea and turn up one Hee Seop Choi, or a Jae Kuk Ryu? Same with Taiwan, and Australia is getting relatively picked over by a lot of other clubs. It's just not as easy as sending a scout over and coming back with a bushel of future big leaguers. Q: Paul Bunyan from San Jose, CA asks: Kevin Frandsen grew up down the street from us, we are happy to see a local boy do so well, especially since he is in the Giants system. I see where he is projected to be a utility player, is this because he doesnt have too much pop? The hustle and the hits wouldnt be enough for a reincarnation of Tommy Herr at 2B? A: John Manuel: I believe I wrote that he is at worst a utility player, and many in the org think he can be a very solid big league 2B reminiscent of Robbie Thompson. If you want to pick Tom Herr, that's fine, as long as Kevin never goes in for the man-perm. Q: Paul Bunyan from San Jose, CA asks: Would you compare Matt Cain to a young AJ Burnett? If not, which current major leaguer would you compare Matt Cain to? A: John Manuel: Not a comp for me. Burnett threw 98 all the time and was wilder than Cain, even the Cain that led the PCL in BBs this year. Cain is more Beckett than Burnett for me. Q: David Alan from Santa Rosa, CA asks: I'm seriously confused about what I read of Todd Linden. Looking at his AAA stats he had a monster season at the age of 24, but everything I read or hear about him is that he's had his chance and failed and is ready for the scrap heap. Can you enlighten me as to how a kid with these numbers is drawing such vitrol? A: John Manuel: Linden is a lot better from the right side; he's got holes in his swing and swings and misses a lot from the left side. Every scout we've talked to about Linden in the last year or two says he's going to be on the Triple-A to the big leagues shuttle until he gets more disciplined and has a better two-strike approach. That's his third year in Triple-A and helps account for some of those monster numbers. For me, he's not an everyday player on a championship team. He had too many big league ABs to qualify for the top 10, FWIW. Q: Tom T from Houston asks: What happened to John Bowker? After an impressive couple of years at Long Beach State and a great 2004 debut, he was very uninspiring at San Jose. Was it just a bad season, or has his prospect status really taken a hit? A: John Manuel: I think it was a bad season, and his status has taken a hit. He's got to hit to have value--he's not a plus runner or plus defender. His ticket is his bat, and he's got to make more consistent contact, put the ball in play more often with some authority. He's in a very competeitive environment, lots of other outfielders for the Giants to choose from. Q: Mickey from Metarie, LA asks: John -- In Wednesday's Padre Chat, Kevin Goldstein referred a couple time to Thursday's Baseball America Party. Can we get a recap? A: John Manuel: Best . . . BA . . . Christmas Party . . . Ever. Even better because I went 2-0 at Galaga. Q: Chad from NJ asks: Who is Kelyn Acosta? Is he a legit prospect? A: John Manuel: He is, he's a burly, stocky, hard-throwing Dominican RHP who has hit 99 mph in the past and is coming back off Tommy John surgery. He got protected on the 40-man roster, and the Giants certainly think he's legit. I think he has a chance to be legit. Q: Rick from Freeport, ME asks: How well do you think Cain will do in the majors this year? A: John Manuel: He's a strong NL Rookie of the Year candidate for me. I think he's ready to be very competitive in the big leagues, kind of have a Scott Kazmir kind of year with fewer walks than Kaz had for the D Rays. Q: Terry S. from Concord, CA. asks: Since Eddy Martinez-Esteve's fielding problems are as much a result of disinterest as ability, do you see him, ultimately, only able to succeed as an AL DH? Also, I thought Clay Timpner might surpass Fred Lewis on your list, but he didn't. Was he close to making it? A: John Manuel: He should be athletic enough to play a decent LF or 1B; it's up to him. He doesn't have to be a DH and the Giants can't use one, so one would imagine this would provide EME with some motivation to work on his defense. Timpner's not far off, but for his profile (leadoff guy with speed), he's just got to be more selective, walk more and strikeout less. OK, I'm done channelling Rob Neyer. Q: Zlatko Williams-Pekar from Ljubljana, Slovenia asks: Thank you for fielding our questions, John. Of the minor leaguers the Giants picked up in deadline trades this past summer, are any considered legitamite prospects? A: John Manuel: The most prospecty is Ben Cox, who didn't hit 96 this year like he did for the Nationals (nee Expos) in '04, but he does pitch at 92-93 mph and could be a solid reliever, the org likes him all right, and so did his manager in the SAL in the Nats system. Q: Ted Kennedy from Cape Cod asks: Tyler Von Schell has put up some great power numbers and finally put together a healthy season in '05 with 14 HRs in a pitcher's park in Norwich. BA named him the Best Defensive 1B in the Eastern League this year. I know Ishikawa is behind him in AA but who else will compete with him for the AAA job? Is he a big leaguer? A: John Manuel: Lightning round . . . Tyler is an organizational player for me. I want to thank him for getting Dan Ortmeier to call me back this year, and congratulate him on UCSB's fine 2001 season. I root for Tyler, I just think he swings and misses too much and hits for too little power for a guy whose best tool is power. Q: Fletch from LA Times asks: Jake Wald had a breakout year with the bat in '05 and helped contribute to that explosive San Jose championship club. He started out as a backup in Augusta last year but was a big league camp invitee the year before!? How much of a prospect is he and where will he go in '06? Can he pick it in the big leagues and will his bat work there? A: John Manuel: That freaked out some members of the organization, Wald had a major spike this year in performance. He's always had raw power at the plate and he's a solid fielder at short with a plus arm. Frankly, he kind of reminds me of Cody Ransom . . . sorry. Q: Andrew Smith from Bethlehem, PA asks: I played with Nick Pereira a few summers ago and followed his progress since, what are the projections of talent and time with him? A: John Manuel: He's got a good fastball, might be a tick above average, and some feel for a nice slider. I got bullpen projections on him. Q: Magic Mikey Mizzle from The Library asks: Hey John, thatks for taking my question. With two guys in the top ten who can play second base, Sanders and Frandsen, what do you think the chances of seeing Mark Minicozzi up with the big league club in three to four years? Where do you see him starting this year? A: John Manuel: Minicozzi is another guy the Giants like out of their '05 draft, like Pereira. The bat will play, Minicozzi has some polish, but yes, you correctly deduce there is a bit of a glut at that position. The Giants still want to try Sanders at short, arm permitting, maybe that helps Minicozzi's chances. Q: Yankee Fan from New York City asks: Is Cain a good enough prospect that his ceiling and his probability of reaching that ceiling are as high as Tyler Clippard's? A: John Manuel: Thanks for the levity. I just wrote up Tyler yesterday for BA's Yankees list. He's no Matt Cain . . . but he's pretty good. Q: Andy from Charlottesville, VA asks: Defensively, where do you project EME to play in the bigs? Ideally, he would be a DH, but unfortunately for him, the Giants selected him in the draft. A: John Manuel: He SHOULD be able to play left. Q: SteveO from SF asks: How bad is Cain's command? Do you think VerlanderLirianoBillingsley are more likely to reach their ceilings than Cain? A: John Manuel: I don't think it's that bad; it's daunting to pitch in the PCL, and he gave hitters too much respect. He's got enough stuff that he can get by with average or above-average control, he doesn't need pinpoint command. I think those are my four favorite pitching prospects in the minors, and ranking their chances of reaching their ceiling, I'll go (wow, that's hard) Verlander, Billingsley, Cain, Liriano (because he has the most injury history). Q: Mark from Minneapolis asks: John- love these chats. How does Matt Cain compare in stuff and makeup to Francisco Liriano? Obviously, you would be enthralled to have either ready to make a big league contribution, but the Giants could have had both! Who do you like better in the long run? A: John Manuel: Several Liriano questions in a row, for the record. Yes, the Giants wish they still had him . . . just a very bad trade, no other way to look at it. Cain seems like he should be more durable, but all things being equal, I'd take the lefthander. Q: Joshua from St. Louis, MO asks: What do you think Fred Lewis's ceiling is as a hitter? What type of hitter would you compare him to? A: John Manuel: That gets harder to say every year; for a guy with raw power, Fred Lewis doesn't hit home runs. That's a hard park for hitters in Norwich, I understand that, but Lewis' start was so poor, he really had to rally to have a decent year. For me, he's a 10-15 homers guy, if his pitch recognition doesn't improve, Lewis is going to end up a tweener, and he's not a good enough defender right now to be a classic fourth outfielder. This season coming up would seem to be make-or-break for him, and several other Giants farmhands. Q: milt from batavia il. asks: He might not qualify as a rookie but I think he's still young enought to ask a Q. about. What's your opinion on the future of Lance Niekro? A: John Manuel: Platoon option at 1B. Q: John from Sacramento asks: Hi John, If the Giants do not sign another ML outfielder for 2006, which of their young outfielders would you expect to be the 5th outfielder: Linden, Ortmeier, Ellison? I know that Linden is out of options, so I would keep him and play Ortmeier in AAA. Do you think Linden will pan out in the future? Thanks for keeping Giants fans in the loop! A: John Manuel: It does appear Linden makes the most sense as a fifth OF, but Ortmeier could beat him out in the spring, has more upside and is a better defender. Q: WillClarkLover from Portland, OR asks: Is David Maroul just a nice story, organizational player or does he have a legit chance to someday become a utility player at the major league level. A: John Manuel: Chance to be more if he makes more consistent contact, he has power and he's a fine defender on the left side of the infield. I think eventually he'll end up going Coutlangus on us and moving to the mound because his swing has holes and his arm is so good. Q: Marc Caviglia from San Bruno, CA asks: Were does OF Mike Mooney project on the Giants top prospects. He has done nothiing but tear up the SS (Arizona and Salem-Keizer) but is already 22 and hasn't played in A ball yet. I would expect he starts the year in San Jose? Your thoughts? A: John Manuel: Mooney made the 30 last year and he went out and hit in the Northwest League, but he also swings and misses a lot. He's still raw at 22. He seems like a Sally Leaguer to me, actually for '06. Q: Steve McGoldrick from NJ asks: Brian Horwitz, pretty good OF with some power in college, but the power has not yet appeared in his brief minor league career. What are Giants plans with Brian down the road, move to the IF? A: John Manuel: Horwitz will be in the book because he can really hit, and that's the most important tool. He could be a nice extra outfielder if he ends up as a .300 hitter with 10-15 homer power; that's a useful player, a starter on a second-division team. Anyone who hits like that, .349, relatively age-appropriate for the league, that gets your attention. Q: Brad Goodman from San Luis Obispo, CA asks: With the second best WL % in the minors, what do you see as the greatest strength in their farm system and what do they need to improve? A: John Manuel: The Giants have clearly tried to get better position players, and they are deeper, and that has helped in terms of winning games in the minors. I also think they have some good minor league managers, Roberto Kelly earned plaudits in the SAL, Len Sakata in the Cal League, etc. I still think the Giants can't be given credit for improving their player development or scouting of hitters until someone breaks through in the majors better than Pedro Feliz. Q: nick from san diego asks: Overall, the talent level in the giants organization seems to be on the rise, is that a fair statement? A: John Manuel: I honestly don't know. A couple of years ago, the Giants ranked 11 and 12 on our talent rankings in back to back years. The org will rank lower this year. I think after Cain, it's hard to see a real impact talent in the organization who doesn't have a significant flaw as well. I think it's holding steady, and that's kind of to be expected when the organization's intense focus has been on winning now. Q: James from Rejdlands, CA asks: The Giants lowest 3 teams, Augusta, Salem-Keizer and Arizona all led their leagues in Team OBP. There were several players with OBP's over .400 led by Antoan Richardson at .467 in Arizona. Is this coincidence, or is Brian Sabean a closet Moneyballer? A: John Manuel: That's a coincidence. Q: Dave from Ventura, CA asks: Would anyone other than Matt Cain even sniff the Dodgers top 10? A: John Manuel: Marcus Sanders' tools are pretty similar to Tony Abreu and Chin-Lung Hu, but he does have the health issue. And Martinez-Esteve is as polished, if not more so, than any Dodgers hitter. That said, they would be interesting debates for the back of the Dodgers top 10, and I'd put guys like Chuck Tiffany and Justin Orenduff and James Loney who didn't make the Dodgers top 10 and they'd make the Giants list. Heck, what's the difference between loney and Ishikawa? Not a whole lot, I'd probably take Loney, and Ishikawa is No. 4 on my Giants list. The Dodgers have more impact talent and more depth in the farm system. Q: nick from san diego asks: Antoan Richardson had a good looking year, whats the deal with him or will he be know as the giants prospect who ran from gunshots in a Miami airport? A: John Manuel: Let's let him be known as the guy whose mother was an Olympic sprinter for the Bahamas. He's very fast, as evidenced by his gunshot incident which I guess is funny since he wasn't hurt, but I have serious doubts about the bat that were not answered by a college senior out of the SEC lighting up the AZL. Q: Glenn from Kennesaw, Ga asks: Great chat. Did John Armitage make your top thirty and rumor has it they are thinking of switching him to first base. Any updates on this Georgia Bulldog ? A: John Manuel: He did not, and he did work out at 1B in instructional league. Armitage just has been passed by a lot of similar players in the organization in my opinion. Q: Brad Goodman from San Luis obispo asks: There were no catchers on the Giants top ten list..who is their #1 prospect at that position? A: John Manuel: Depending on who you talk to, it's Eliezer Alfonzo or Justin Knoedler. Defense is the most important tool at C, so I lean toward Knoedler. Q: Ron from CT asks: What do you see in Fred Lewis that ranks him above Dan Ortmeier? Fred had more errors, less stolen bases, and he's older than Ortmeier. Is it his bat? A: John Manuel: He just has bigger tools, but at Double-A, maybe I should have weighed performance more. I believe in Fred Lewis, though that believe was shaken this year. Neither is an impact defender; it's giong to be about the bat. Lewis has patience and speed, speed that I think will play better than Ortmeier's, who I don't see as a 20-SB guy in the majors. I'm betting on Lewis' bat coming around and his raw power coming out. Certainly, though, you make a good case, and Ortmeier could be the better prospect, I could be wrong on that call, it was not an easy one to make. Q: Grant from McCovey Chronicles asks: The comment about Marcus Sanders mentioned he came back from his shoulder injury with a 20 throwing arm on the 20-to-80 scale. I've never really seen a middle infielder in the majors, or few players other than Jeff Bagwell, come back from an injury that foam-armed. How have other middle infield prospects bounced back from a similar injury in the past? A: John Manuel: I haven't done a survey on that, Grant, perhaps I should. I know Robin Yount had a shoulder injury and he moved to CF. He'd already been a big league MVP by that time, so maybe that's the wrong comparison to make. The good thing for Sanders is he theoretically has a couple of years to rebuild his arm strength in the minors and the Giants really don't have to answer that question for a year or two; that's how I see it. Don't move him to CF until he absolutely proves he can't play SS or 2B. Q: Fonz from Milwaukee asks: Is saying that EME SHOULD be able to play left, but still can't, a subtle way of implying that EME is something of a less than all-around nice guy? A: John Manuel: Nice has nothing to do with it. No one I've talked to about EME has praised his defensive work ethic. That's the best way to put it. Q: Kevin J. Cunningham from Foster City, CA asks: Hey John, good to have you back again doing the G-Men. I had a question for you about the Giants in general. A lot of Giants fans I know and argue with regularly call the Giants front office (specifically Sabean and Tidrow) terrible talent evaluators and player developers. What are your opinions on such statements? A: John Manuel: What a way to end the chat . . . That tandem is responsible for the run the Giants have had since '97 in which they've basically been in it every year; this was the first losing season. Those guys aren't perfect, and they also aren't revolutionary or cutting edge, but generally, I think they evaluate talent pretty well. The Giants could do better on the player development side, no doubt, and Sabean blew the Pierzynski trade . . . that ground has been well-covered. I generally think Sabean and Tidrow, if you're taking them as a tandem, are in the upper half of front offices. I think they make more good moves than bad. John Manuel: Thanks, everyone, for coming out. Giants chats are always fun chats. I really appreciate it and hope everyone has a great holiday season and a Merry Christmas. --

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