不錯的文章，講上星期六的兩場比賽改變六國錦標賽的歷史。 還有一些跟我之前寫的賭盤分析差不多。 http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/international/3542607.stm Monday, 8 March, 2004, 12:32 GMT Six Nations comes of age By Tom Fordyce You might not have guessed from the look on Sir Clive Woodward's face at tea-time on Saturday, but the weekend just gone was the best in Six Nations history. Hold back on those outraged emails, England fans, and look at the big picture. Ireland's triumph at Twickenham, allied to Italy's win over Scotland, has left the Six Nations in better shape than ever before. If you want to be parochial about it, then yes, England should be inconsolable after losing their mantle of invincibility, and devastated that the chance to win back-to-back Grand Slams has gone. But hey, even the greatest teams have to get beaten sometimes. Woodward and his senior lieutenants will learn from the defeat, realise they can play better and work like dervishes to eliminate the mistakes which gave Ireland their chance. And they are still right in there with a chance of winning the Six Nations. It's just that, for the first time since the tournament's inception, there are now three nations who could take the prize. If results go as you would expect in a fortnight's time, the race could go right down to the wire. England should beat Wales at home, Ireland do the same against Italy and France win at Murrayfield. That would mean England, Ireland and France could all win the Six Nations on the final weekend. If France beat England in Paris on 27 March, the championship would be theirs. But if England beat France, both sides would be on eight points. Should Ireland beat Scotland in Dublin four hours earlier, they would also be on eight points. If teams are level, the title will be decided on points difference. England are currently on +57, France on +50 and Ireland on +9. So England could walk out at the Stade de France knowing not only that they have to win, but by how many points. Hell, if you want to take it through to the ultimate conclusion, they might even have to score those points in a certain way - should the teams be tied on points difference, they would be separated on tries scored. It is a scenario that, by itself, is enough to underline the rude health in which the Six Nations finds itself. Factor in Italy's win over Scotland in Rome and the diagnosis becomes even more impressive. No more are Italy left hanging off the bottom of the championship table. They have every chance of avoiding the wooden spoon for the second year in succession - proof that they are now in the tournament on merit. They now need to win a game away from home, and then win two matches in the same year. But progress is being made. England's defeat is a shot in the arm for the Six Nations. No-one wants to watch a competition dominated by one side. There is no excitement or drama in one-sided results. Now we have a situation where the world champions have, over the last three years, been beaten in the Six Nations by three other sides - in Paris, Edinburgh and now at home. The only predictable thing about the Six Nations is its unpredictability. And that makes for compulsive viewing. --

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