比較務實的分析來了... 今年還是不期不待吧 XD Five questions: Colorado Rockies by Derek Ambrosino March 14, 2013 原文: http://0rz.tw/ZAAjV : It wasn’t that long ago that the Colorado Rockies looked like a trendy : sleeper pick to win what seemed to a mediocre NL West; I believe I picked : them to win that division two years ago. Fast forward to today and their best : player is a perennial injury risk and their rotation has morphed from : interesting, young, and with upside to a mix of question marks and train : wrecks. 還記得不久前，洛磯隊看起來像是能夠在弱小國西勝出的球隊。精確一點來說，2年前的 開季我預測他們能拿下這個分區。醒醒吧，洛磯球迷，今天你們最好的球員動不動就受傷 你們的輪值乍看之下年輕充滿希望，結果每個投手都不穩定，甚至爆炸。 : Colorado should be operating with a multi-year plan in mind, using this : season to transition from some veterans, explore various options to acquire : pitching talent, and derive definitive opinions on its younger position : players. 洛磯隊要時常把長期建構藍圖放在心中，本季應試著把老將交易出去，提升投手深度。 另外，也要從年輕野手中尋找長期的答案 (譯按:此處應是指野手陣容卡著兩張大約，很難再從FA挖重砲。因此更加需要年輕野手 能夠成為全隊長期支柱。讓剩下的薪資空間可以拿來簽投手) : The questions I’ve posed below are a bit about this year, but they are also : about the big picture—what has to happen in 2013 to position the Rockies to : re-emerge as contenders in the near future? 我以下所列的問題，只有一部分跟今年有關。洛磯隊的重點應放在未來：究竟這支球隊 今年要達成什麼目標，才能在短時間內重返競爭季後賽之林? What to do about the pitching staff? 投手陣容怎麼樣? : While I want to speak big picture, we can’t ignore the present. The first : thing that strikes me about the Rockies is their complete lack of a reliable : pitching staff. While there are some holes and question marks in the lineup, : the factor pushing down the ceiling of this team with phenomenal force is a : dearth of pitching skill and depth. Last season, the Rockies abandoned : convention and went to an approach in which starting pitchers were capped 75 : pitches—not out of a need to protect them, but in an attempt to harvest some : modicum of efficacy, even if for only three or four innings. In 2013, they : plan to keep this approach, and even refine it, pairing starters with long : relievers. 雖然我們放眼未來，但是不可以忽略當前情勢。首先，洛磯隊完全沒有可靠的投手，這點 讓我很震驚。雖然這支球隊的打線也有些問題，但真正會讓戰績一蹶不振的關鍵絕對是 好投手不夠多。上一季，洛磯隊放棄傳統5人輪值，搞出4人輪值，先發只能投75球的新招 (譯按：以為是在玩WBC嗎? 怒!)注意喔，這不是因為教練團要保護投手，而是在短短3-4局 內，能夠讓投手的威力得以發揮。在2013年，球團打算繼續亂搞，堅持我們有我們的玩法 ，甚至要把先發跟長中繼配成對，一起出賽。 (...................................) : This actually is not far from an interesting strategy I had always wanted to : see the Rockies try, except my idea would have been implemented by design and : not out of desperation. I always thought building a staff out of middle : relievers and swing men, putting most hands on deck each night, constantly : playing match-ups, and adding a de facto rotating DH by virtually never : allowing the pitcher to hit would be an interesting approach to maximize : Colorado’s inherent biases. But they have neither the tools for my Veeck-ian : experiment, not a successful outcome from a conventional approach. 看起來有夠怪，但其實這是一個很有意思的策略，我一直以來都希望洛磯隊試試看。不過 我不樂見球隊在沒有詳細規畫之下，就讓4人輪值草創實施，只因為他們走投無路，死馬當 活馬醫。依我之見，應該將比賽中段的中繼，跟能夠先發後援兩頭跑的投手，組成一個 堅強的牛棚，每晚勤於調度，視對戰球隊的打者不斷換投。這樣的話就能夠避免投手 打擊，另外安排一組打者輪流代打，權充DH的腳色。這是一個有趣的辦法，可以讓褲兒濕 極端打者球場的特性得以發揮。但是這支球隊一直沒有夠好的投手來嘗試我的實驗，去年 的四人輪值也沒有獲得該有的功效。 : Jorge De la Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin once held appeal as fantasy sleepers, and : Drew Pomeranz boasts youth and impressive stuff, but at this point every : pitcher slated in the Rockies' starting rotation would have to overcome the : odds to compile league-average numbers. 洛磯隊的輪值有誰呢? JDLR與Chacin，這兩位曾經FB後段可以期待的潛力股。還有年輕、 有很好stuff的Pomeranz。不過現在看起來，每位表定在輪值內的先發，都必須竭盡全力， 才能交出聯盟平均水準的數據 (譯按: 4-man rotation sucks!) Can their young stars stay healthy? 年輕巨星能戰否? : A healthy Troy Tulowitzki is a potential MVP-level player, and not many : teams can boast one of those. The problem is that Tulo has played 140 games : or more in only three of the previous six seasons. Carlos Gonzalez is also a : force to be reckoned with, but he’s missed an average of roughly 30 games : per season over his last three. There are some intriguing young bats in the : Rockies' lineup, but without these two sluggers as the backbone of the offense : —and defense, in the case of Tulo—the Rockies won’t have the firepower to : slug their way to overcome their dreadful pitching staff. 不是很多球隊都有夠格拿MVP的選手，健康的Troy Tulowitzki絕對有這個實力。不過 過去6個球季，Tulo打超過140場的只有3季，傷痛問題堪憂。MVP候選人也不要忘了Carlos Gonzalez，不過他過去三季也平均每季缺席30場。洛磯隊打線年輕充滿活力，但如果攻守 兩端缺少這兩位超級巨星，打擊火力就不足以彌補投手端的大量掉分。 (譯按：看看去年就知道了...) When does the next generation arrive, and will they “arrive?” 明日之星在哪裡，他們會來嗎? : Although 2013 looks bleak overall for the Rockies, the season is not without : hope, especially on individual levels. Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario and Josh : Rutledge are all players who, if they continue to take steps forward, can : cement themselves as valuable and viable pieces of a playoff-caliber team. : These are the types of young, relatively inexpensive producers the team needs : to position itself to make noise in the near future. 儘管洛磯隊的2013球季看來只有一個慘字，但球迷也不要放棄得太早，還有一些球員值得 期待。Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario和Josh Rutledge，如果能百尺竿頭，更進一步， 便能成為季後賽強隊也不可或缺的要角。他們年輕又不貴，可以讓球隊在近幾年內當一個 攪局者。 : On the pitching side, Pomeranz and Rex Brothers are potential bright spots, : while at age 24, Chacin has the potential to right himself quickly and : reclaim the label of a promising young arm with weak two- to solid : three-starter potential? 至於投手，同樣24歲的Pomeranz跟Brothers有機會冒出頭。Chacin有機會修正去年的低潮 重回期待投手的行列，並將落磯輪值補強嗎? (譯按：這裡不太確定是什麼意思) : Other names that might make a mark in 2013 include Tyler Colvin and Nolan : Arenado. 另外別忘了Tyler Colvin跟Nolan Arenado，他們有機會在2013年有所發揮。 : Colvin is slated to begin the season as a back-up, but will likely get ample : time as a fourth outfielder and will find his way into the lineup when the : annual Todd Helton injury takes place. Arenado will most likely begin the : season in the minors, but has been one of the game's more touted offensive : prospects for a while, despite seeing his stock drop a bit after a : disappointing 2012. He has a pretty poor defensive rep at third base, but : Chris Nelson is penciled in as the team’s starter at the hot corner and he : turned in a -2.1 defensive WAR in 2012, so if Arenado can mash, he’s likely : no worse with the glove than the status quo. Colvin表定開季從板凳出發，以四號外野手找些零星時間出賽，不過當每年都會發生的 Helton大叔受傷時，他的機會就來了。Arenado曾經是最受期待的打擊新秀，不過因為2012 年打得不夠亮眼，期待度略微下滑，預計從小聯盟開季。聽說他三壘守的不太好，不過 看看本季洛磯隊預計先發三壘手，Chris Nelson去年防守WAR只有-2.1...恩，只要Arenado 你不要守太爛還是可以上得來。 What will they sell, and what will they get for it? 跳樓大拍賣囉! 該賣什麼? 能拿到什麼? : Ignoring for the moment the rumors of a potential pre- or midseason Tulo : trade, the Rockies still have some pieces that I could easily see contenders : coming to call for come midseason. 先不提Tulo可能被交易的謠言，洛磯隊季中仍然會是要搶進季後賽球隊覬覦的對象。 : I’ve always liked Michael Cuddyer; his versatility and above-average stick, : along with a perfectly tolerable $21 million over two years could make a nice : addition to many a contender. This move would make even more sense if Colvin : starts to distinguish himself and proves deserving of regular playing time. Michael Cuddyer一直是不錯的球員：能夠站很多位置，棒子也高於平均。更重要的是， 兩年21M不算太肥的合約，相信會是強隊樂於補強的目標。對於洛磯隊來說，如果Colvin 能夠證明他可以站穩外野先發，那麼就更有本錢交易Cuddyer了。 : By the same token, Rafael Betancourt will draw a ton of interest, as a fully : capable closer and overqualified set-up man making $4.25 million in 2013 with : an option for 2014. In fact, Betancourt is such a bargain that I think this : is the reason why he didn’t get dealt last year or in the offseason. He’s a : high-quality player whose departure would not shed much salary. But, : realistically, his contract window doesn’t align with the next potential : crest of the Rockies, so it would make sense to dangle him as potentially the : top reliever prize of the deadline and extract a legitimate asset or two. 以此類推，Rafael Betancourt也會是市場大熱門。Betancourt完全可以勝任終結者的角色 如果你是洋基隊還可以把它當Setup用。這麼好用的投手多貴呢? 不貴今年才4.25M，明年 甚至還有option。我想就是因為Betancourt這麼讚，球隊才沒在去年季中或季後把他交易 掉。他的離開將會造成球隊巨大的損失，薪資也省不到哪去。但是，現實一點吧，幾年後 洛磯會被Tulo跟Gonzalez綁住，沒有多的錢來留Betancourt，倒不如以頂級後援投手的價 碼把他賣掉，在交易日前再換幾個大物來。 What would a successful 2013 look like? 欸...洛磯今年怎樣算是成功? : Success looks different for different teams. While anything short of winning : a playoff series may be a disappointment for teams like the Dodgers, Yankees : or Angels, for a team like the Rockies, a reasonable goal is to be in a : better place than they are now come next spring. This will be achieved by : seeing young players develop, as well as by exchanging higher paid veterans : whose peaks don’t fit the trajectory of the team for younger assets, : hopefully of the pitching variety. 成功對不同球隊的定義會不一樣。對於道奇、洋基或天使這種強隊來說，沒進季後賽球迷 肯定會很失望。不過對今年的洛磯隊，重點應放在加強戰力，讓明年開季的陣容更好。 年輕球員不斷的成長，或是將高薪的球員拿去換潛力新秀，讓投手陣容多一些希望，對於 洛磯隊來說就算成功了。 : Seeing Tulo play a full season, Wilin Rosario prove 2012 was not a fluke, : Dexter Fowler become a borderline star, Rex Brothers solidify himself as a : fearsome reliever, and Drew Pomeranz show at least consistent glimpses of : what made him a top-25 prospect are all things that I’d consider more : important than actual final season record. Remember, Tulo and Cargo are : locked up long term, the philosophy in 2013 should be to avoid the temptation : to be penny-wise and pound-foolish. (1) Tulo能夠健康打滿整季 (2) Rosario沒有二年級症 (3) Fowler成為準明星 (4) Rex Brothers上場時就準備唱晚安曲 (5) Pomeranz證明他曾是超級新秀的身手 以上這幾件事我認為比今年的最終戰績更重要。記住，Tulo跟Cargo都被球隊砸大錢綁長約 因此最不該犯的錯誤，就是今年把小錢省下，卻在來年把球隊的payroll給拖垮了! -- "每個夢想成為棒球選手的小孩子，都會拿著球棒站在院子裡，告訴自己 「九局下半，滿壘」，然後幻想自己自己打出全壘打贏得比賽。 而我的工作就是粉碎這個夢想！" <<國訓白教練回憶錄>>

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