The State of the System: A baseball kōan: Can Dave Dombrowski build a system so shallow even Dave Dombrowksi can’t make trades from it? The Top Ten: Jay Groome, LHP Michael Chavis, 3B Bryan Mata, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Josh Ockimey, 1B Michael Shawaryn, RHP Cole Brannen, OF Alex Scherff, RHP Lorenzo Cedrola, OF Sam Travis, 1B 1. Jay Groome, LHP The Good: His curve remains one of baseball’s biggest potential weapons on the mound, a true potential future 80-grade pitch. He still has pretty advanced feel for his age, and he did strike out almost 12 batters per 9 innings pitching in Low-A at just 18 years old. He’s built like an absolute brick house, tall and with a strong and sturdy frame everywhere. He’s a legitimate three-pitch guy, with a lively fastball and a fairly advanced change, albeit one that only projects to average or slightly-above. The Bad: He missed over two months with a lat injury. When he pitched, he wasn ’t all that effective, although his ERA is inflated by giving up nine runs while compromised in his one Low-A outing before the injury. While he’ll sit as high as 93-95 and touch 97 early in games, he has serious trouble maintaining his velocity into the middle innings, an issue that has plagued him since high school. His command also wavers, both from outing to outing and batter to batter. The Role: OFP 70—Ace performance with fewer than ace innings Likely 50—Fourth starter or late-inning arm that flashes more The Risks: Extreme in every direction. Groome has true ace upside, and has been flashing it for years now. But he remains unpolished and unrefined, and frankly looks like he might be on a path with significant reliever risk now. And that’s before even getting into the “makeup concerns.” We probably can’t discuss Groome without noting that a cloud of off-the-field concerns have followed Groome since he transferred from Barnegat High School in New Jersey to the IMG Academy in Florida and then back over about a year’s period in 2014-2015. What we can factually tell you is that he was suspended for part of his senior season by the state athletic association over residency issues regarding his transfer back to Barnegat, that various personal and signing bonus demand rumors almost certainly caused him to drop significantly in the draft, and that his father was arrested on a host of drug and weapon charges last year in connection with a New Jersey heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine distribution sting. Past that, we get into the domain of speculation and innuendo. —Jarrett Seidler Major league ETA: 2020 Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: At a certain point this gets into personal preference. Do you prefer a pitcher with a 20 percent chance of being a No. 2 starter but a 50 percent chance of at least providing mid-rotation value, or do you go with a guy like Groome, who might have a 15 percent chance of becoming a True Ace(TM) but who could easily fall off the face of the earth? You all know how I feel by now—Groome is still a borderline top-50 guy for me because of my upside-only strategy with pitchers. You can make a reasonable case for him slotting 30 or 40 spots lower, though. 2. Michael Chavis, 3B The Good: Chavis put the hand injuries that have dogged his pro career in the rear view mirror in 2017, and hoo boy here come the dingers. Chavis always had plus raw in the profile, but could never stay on the field long enough to really show it off. Now 31 home runs in 126 games overstates the power projection here, but 25 home runs from his compact, power stroke seems very possible. And with the “flyball revolution,” that might even end up low. He has the swing—if not the approach yet—to show off this power to all fields, but it is primarily pull-side at present. The rest of the profile isn’t much to write home about, but he has the arm and the range to be passable at third and is a better athlete than you’d expect given his fireplug frame. The Bad: Finding Chavis a place to stand in the majors might prove tricky. Obviously he isn’t unseating Rafael Devers from third base, but even in a vacuum, he’s fringy there. There aren’t the fast-twitch reactions you expect at the hot corner, and his strong arm can play down due to an inconsistent arm slot. But there really isn’t a better fit for him. The range would be stretched at second, he doesn’t have ideal foot speed for a corner outfield spot, and he’s shorter than you’d want in a first baseman (not to mention the pressure that would put on the bat). If he can battle and be fringy at third, that might be his most valuable defensive home. At the plate, Chavis trades off some hit tool utility for his potential plus power. He swings for the fences, and will collapse his back side and pop balls up. He also struggles to gear down for spin. Major league arms are good at exploiting those issues. The Role: OFP 55—Above-average major leaguer, position TBD Likely 50—Average major leaguer, position TBD The Risks: Everything other than power might end up below-average, so there’ s some pretty big variance in the ultimate outcome here, despite the fact that he has already bopped in Double-A. Major league ETA: Late 2018 Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: It’s true that power is at less of a premium today than it was five years ago, but Chavis still has the ceiling of a decent fantasy third baseman and the floor of a passable fantasy CI. Given his proximity to the majors and (to a lesser degree) his potential future home of Fenway that makes him a borderline top-50 dynasty prospect. He does carry risk thanks to the defensive deficiencies and the injury history, though. 4. Tanner Houck, RHP The Good: Listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Houck clearly possesses a starter ’s frame with some remaining projection. His fastball is potentially a plus or better offering, and he commands it well. The pitch typically sits 92-96 (t98) and features impressive sinking action, which induces weak contact and swing and misses. His sweepy slider flashes above average and generated a few swing and misses during my viewings of him. Houck’s delivery is deceptive as well due to his low three-quarters arm slot. The Bad: His slider is fairly inconsistent while his changeup is a work in progress. Even though I believe it contributes to his effectiveness, some evaluators are concerned that his low three-quarters delivery will prevent him from becoming a big league starter. The Role: OFP 55—Mid-rotation starter Likely 45—Back-end starter or high leverage reliever The Risks: He’s a 21-year-old pitching prospect with only 22 ⅓ innings of professional experience (none above short-season ball). His average start this summer was just over two innings. —Erich Rothmann Major league ETA: 2020 Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I am higher on Houck than my colleague and internet dad Bret Sayre is—he would’ve made my top-50 signees list if I had one—but still only as one of the last 10-or-so names. The truth of the matter is that tons of guys with Houck’s profile get popped every year, and until he’s closer to the majors and/or looks like a safer bet to remain a starter, he’s unlikely to be of much interest to us. He seems unlikely to ever become a premium source of strikeouts. -- やっ..........！！！！！！止めろペイモンこの野郎～～～～～～っ 地獄でいきなり聖書なんえ 読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ！！殺すえおっ！！ --

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.115.140.203 ※ 文章網址: https://webptt.com/m.aspx?n=bbs/RedSox/M.1515844136.A.C11.html ※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.140.203), 01/13/2018 19:49:57 跳過是覺得沒有看頭 有未來性 只是排在第三位 除非農場超爛... low-90s fastball with natural cut potential above-average 11-5 curve. Everything is a little raw here. Lose his release point,the zone and overthrow. OFP 55—no. 3/4 starter Likely 45—back end starter ※ 編輯: Zamned (59.115.140.203), 01/13/2018 20:23:13