National Taiwan University, Department of Political Science 302 292B3 Applied Statistics -B3 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Meeting time: F 13:20 -15:10 (Room 3) 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Instructor: Risharng Chiang (Research Tower 215) 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Email: [email protected] 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Office Hours: 10:00 - 12:00 am, Thursday [Course Objectives:] This course is the first of a series of a year-long course in statistical methodologiesdesigned for undergraduate students. It introduces the undergraduate student to basicmethods of empirical inquiry in the social sciences. The overwhelming majority of studiesthat test hypotheses, empirically fit models, produce predictions, or estimate policy impacts are based upon some form of quantitative or statistical analysis. This course will provide a basic introduction to statistical methods for social scientists and policy analysts. The course will provide a solid foundation in statistical inference, enabling the student to become a competent producer of basic statistical research. In addition the skills acquired will enable the student to become a somewhat more sophisticated consumer of more advanced research methodologies. The basic organization of the course is: (1) a general introduction to research methodology, (2) descriptive statistics, their use and interpretation, (3) the essential elements of probability, (4) the foundations of statistical inference, (5) and finally an overview of selected hypothesis tests. [Course Requirements:] Successful completion of the course depends on reading the texts and completing the assigned homework problems. On occasion, you will be asked to turn in your homework for grading and review. Your performance in the course will be evaluated on the basis of homework assignments (total worth 40% of the final grade) and two in-class open-book examinations (each worth 25% of the final grade), and class participation (10%). The TA hour will be arranged at your most availability. [Problem Sets:] Problem sets will be assigned for each class. Problem sets will be graded. - Keys will be provided for your benefit. All problem sets will be due as assigned in class. - Late problem sets will not be accepted. [Textbooks Required:] - David S. Moore and George P. McCabe, 2006, Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, W.H. Freeman & Company. (Available at Hwa-Tai bookstore) (This book will serve as the primary text for this course; a book was ordered by NTULibrary and will be reserved at the Law & Social Science Library once it is arrived.) Students will find the text to be a useful reference source for subsequent classes and research. [Textbooks for Reference:] - 陽明宗，總審校；吳武忠、陳立信、陳明輝、劉應興譯，2005，應用統計學：利 用資料作決策，華泰文化出版（譯自Moore, McCabe, Duckworth, and Sclove 所著 及由W. H. Freeman & Company 於2002 出版之The Practice of Business Statistics: Using Data for Decisions）。 - 林惠玲、陳正倉， 2004，應用統計學，雙業書廊有限公司。 Many data analysis packages are available and this semester we will use Excel and SPSSR which are easily available at NTU and widely used in teaching and industry. However, if you wish, you may use anything else but we cannot promise support. Some NTU Computing Labs supporting S-PLUSR, SASR, JMPR, EViewR, and STATAR. MATLABR is also a possibility for those who want to do some programming. [Course Outline, Reading, and Assignments:] We will begin with chapter one of the Moore and McCabe text and continue at a rate comfortable for students in the class. We should cover all material by the end of the course (if we have time, we may highlight more advanced procedures described in advanced literatures). Class activities and frequent homework assignments will parallel and supplement the discussion in class. Reading and homework assignments will be announced periodically in class. Updates will be made to the class periodically. Students should complete homework assignments before attending class in order to derive maximum benefits from the discussion. These assignments will be collected and graded. [Lectures] 09/22 Overview; Nature of Data; Uses and Abuses of Statistics (ch. 1) 09/29 Design of Experiments; Summarizing Data and Pictures of Data (ch. 2) 10/06 Mid-Fall Festival; No class 10/13 Measures of Center; Measures of Variation; Measures of Position (ch. 3) 10/20 Exploratory Data Analysis; Fundamentals of Probability and Addition Rule (ch. 4) 10/27 Multiplication Rule: Basics; Random Variables (ch. 4) 11/03 Binomial Probability Distribution and its Mean, Variance, and SD (ch. 5) 11/10 The Standard Normal Distribution (ch. 5) 11/17 Nonstandard Normal Distributions: Finding Probabilities and Values (ch. 5) 11/24 The Central Limit Theorem; Review (ch. 5) 12/01 Mid-Term Exam 12/08 Estimates and Large Sample Sizes of Means (ch. 6) 12/15 Estimates and Small Sample Sizes of Means; Determining Sample Size (ch. 6) 12/22 Estimates and Sample Sizes of Proportions; Intro to Hypothesis Testing (ch. 7) 12/29 Claims about a Mean: Large and Small Samples (ch. 7) 01/05 Claims about a Proportion and Variance/Standard Deviation (ch. 8) 01/12 Review and Wrap-up (ch. 8) 01/19 Final Exam --

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